Outlook 2011: Is the Smart Money Right About China? [View article]
China is growing by over 9%, oh, you think this is a lie. China's international trade is at an all time high and growing. This can not be a lie, we can trace this figure from outside China. China is buying resources and resource companies all over the world. This is also traceable. China is lending money to many, many other countries. This is also traceable. China is in trouble? If growing too fast mean trouble, then, in your definition, China is in trouble. To China, it need to manage its growth, but it is not trouble. China is collapsing? You got it all wrong, China is over heating, the opposite of collapsing.
Outlook 2011: Is the Smart Money Right About China? [View article]
Misery love company. There were people predicted that the Chinese economy were to collapse continuously for the past 20 or more years. And there will be people predicting China's collapse for the next 20 or more years. These people were and are looking at a set of old economic principles that apply to old capitalistic behavior. China reverse the supply-demand principle: Old principle: if we need a road, we will build one. Chinese principle: If we build a road, people will use it. Old: Supply and demand must be at equilibrium. China: You can create demand by lowering the price. Old: The right quantity is best. China: The more the better. Old: Give people more money to spend will stimulate the economy. China: Give people more work will stimulate the economy. Old: More consumption will stimulate the economy. China: More investments will stimulate the economy.
What China's Economy Will Look Like in 2020 [View article]
If it was not for its one child policy, China would have a population of 1.67 billion if China had the same rate of population growth as India in the past 3 decades. China would not be anywhere close to where its is today because China, with a bigger population would have consumed a larger portion of its GNP and leave a smaller amount for investment. If any country is prepared for the future and its aging population, it is China, the average Chinese saved an average of 30-35%. If anyone save 10-15% of his income during his working years, he would retire comfortably. Most Chinese do better than that.
What China's Economy Will Look Like in 2020 [View article]
China's aging problems are better than Japan and many other developed countries. If it was not for immigration, China's problem is better than some new world nations. I look for China's economy to surpass the US or EU in 20 t0 25 years. China's economy is restructuring, China will replace its low cost manufacturing with higher priced products in 10-15 years.
Outlook 2011 for Crude Oil and Gasoline: Escalator Up and Elevator Down [View article]
People are greedy by nature, but people are not stupid, they learn from their mistakes. It does not matter where the people reside, whether the West, China, or the middle east, they think of themselves first. Even if they help you, there must be something for themselves. When people have a good thing, oil, rare earth, or what ever, they want to get the most out of them. The middle east can and will turn on or off the tap to get the most out of their products. We have to learn to live with that fact.
Do Oil Price Spikes Cause Recessions? [View article]
Higher oil prices mean oil consuming nations will get poorer with or without producing countries getting richer. Higher prices will reduce demand and will encourage substitution.
The Visibility (and Invisibility) of Clean Technology in 2011 [View article]
Clean power is expensive and will remain more expensive than coal or nuclear for the foreseeable future even for China and more so for countries that depend on China for rare elements.
Is this a dead cat bounce? Each big bear is preceded by a big bull. The market will likely go up more, be very careful, make sure you get out too early rather than too late.
Outlook 2011 for Crude Oil and Gasoline: Escalator Up and Elevator Down [View article]
With cars demand in China and India and other developing countries going up and up, the demand of oil will not hit the ditch, more likely the moon. I know Europe and the US are in life support, they are not going to die anytime soon. Even if 10% additional people can not afford to drive, the other will continue to drive. Even if there is no growth in the West for the next 2 decades, the average income in the West will still be around $ 40000 per year. An average of 10% growth in China and India for the next 20 years will bring their average income to $ 30000 and $ 10000 respectively. And I doubt China nor India can grow at 10% for the next 20 years.
Outlook 2011: Is the Smart Money Right About China? [View article]
Outlook 2011: Is the Smart Money Right About China? [View article]
Outlook 2011: Is the Smart Money Right About China? [View article]
Old principle: if we need a road, we will build one.
Chinese principle: If we build a road, people will use it.
Old: Supply and demand must be at equilibrium.
China: You can create demand by lowering the price.
Old: The right quantity is best.
China: The more the better.
Old: Give people more money to spend will stimulate the economy.
China: Give people more work will stimulate the economy.
Old: More consumption will stimulate the economy.
China: More investments will stimulate the economy.
What China's Economy Will Look Like in 2020 [View article]
What China's Economy Will Look Like in 2020 [View article]
Outlook 2011 for Crude Oil and Gasoline: Escalator Up and Elevator Down [View article]
Do Oil Price Spikes Cause Recessions? [View article]
The Visibility (and Invisibility) of Clean Technology in 2011 [View article]
Is Now a Good Time to Buy Stocks? [View article]
The Danger of Hyperinflation [View article]
Outlook 2011 for Crude Oil and Gasoline: Escalator Up and Elevator Down [View article]
Do Oil Price Spikes Cause Recessions? [View article]
Is This Recovery Real or Just Another Head-Fake? [View article]
The Danger of Hyperinflation [View article]
Are Critical Energy Metals a One-Way Bet? [View article]