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Larry Sohl

Larry Sohl
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  • Is This The Big Correction? [View article]
    Call me old fashioned, but I believe the market is primarily driven by fear, greed, and pure emotion more then anything else. I do love the chart analysts, though. It's cheap entertainment to believe you can read the tea leaves and predict what Joe Trader is going to do on any given day based on a chart.

    People know there's been a big run-up. People keep hearing analysts and bloggers talk about the impending crash. If they're selling, it's their fear of getting crushed by another drop.

    You could also argue that the we're way above the S&P 500 long-term P/E ratio of 14 and we're due for a sell-off. I saw that argument recently, again based on a chart and some numbers. What the author failed to point out is that the P/E ratio of the market hasn't been at that level since the late 1980's. Crunching all the market's numbers for 100+ years, calculating an average, and pretending that's a predictor of the market... also entertaining.
    Jan 26 09:05 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Great Bounces: Comparisons Between the Current Crash and the Great Depression [View article]
    I'm all for learning from the past, but I scoff everytime I see someone make a comparison like this. I do think that the market needs to take a deep breath after a quick run-up. However... this is not 1929. It's a different millenia... a very different global economy... a different set of circumstances... a different approach to resolving the issues. Do I think the market is going to continue to skyrocket? No. I won't be surprised to see a correction, or at least a moderation of what may be irrational exuberance.

    The comparison makes for some cheap entertainment, but that's all it is. If I go by history and compare to 1929... I guess the Cubs will lose the World Series this year and the Red Sox will finish in dead last..... Hmmmm..... running to see my bookie as we speak.
    Aug 25 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Companies with Sustainable Dividends [View article]
    W.D.... Down boy.... I already said I didn't research UPS, I was simply telling a cautionary tale on Dow Chemical to warn people against basing future dividend projections solely on past performance. I was encouraging people to do the research. It sounds like you have, but you didn't post anything beyond your opinion to back that up. Obviously the two companies are in different industries and situations and you can't assume what happened at Dow will happen at UPS.

    If you had provided some financial details on UPS's cash flow and performance prospects, I probably wouldn't have even posted. Your original post simply mentioned that they'd never cut the dividend because they were "honorable and consistent". I tend not to make investing decisions on such 'solid' advice. Congrats on being a successful investor. I'm not doing bad myself. If you've got the numbers that back up your contention that UPS's dividend is safe and can show that, I won't argue with you. I'm not familiar with their situation and have never had the desire to research the company to that extent. But frankly, I am highly skeptical any time I see anyone push for (or against) any company without posting the numbers to back up the argument. There are far too many people on these boards who have an agenda, a stock, or a company to promote.


    On Aug 18 02:14 PM WD216 wrote:

    > L.S., I did do the research on UPS, have you? They are flush with
    > cash, have a steady business, dominate the package delivery business,
    > generate good cash flow and have been around for 100 years. You compare
    > them to Dow Chemical who has a cyclical business and goes head to
    > head with a slew of chemical companies? I think you need to research
    > UPS before making off the cuff remarks.
    >
    > Companies flush with cash do not cut dividends. That is stock investing
    > 101 and it's one of the reasons I have been and still am a very successful
    > investor.
    Aug 19 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Six Companies with Sustainable Dividends [View article]
    In regards to the comments about the UPS dividend, having a reputation for being 'honorable and consistent' sounds great, but the reality is that many companies are having to alter their dividend plans due to the recession. I'm sure the same argument against a dividend cut was made for Dow Chemical. Dow had gone something like 97 years with no dividend cuts, steadily increasing the dividend that entire time. If you go by the past track record, this should have been the safest dividend in the market. But... the dividend was cut 64%.

    I don't claim to have thoroughly researched UPS or their financial picture, but any sensible investor should understand that the depth of this recession has caused some companies to make unprecedented changes to their dividend structures. You can't simply rely on past performance or 'reputation' as a means to predict future payouts. Do the research. Check out the financials. Otherwise, you can join the ranks of Dow Chemical and/or other investors who were hit with unexpected dividend cuts.
    Aug 18 09:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Utility ETFs Have Dimmed [View article]
    I won't dispute the underperformance argument, or the short term prospects. One point of clarification however: rarely do these articles or analysis of prices take into account dividends. And let's face it... many investors pick a fund such as XLU for the relatively steady dividend stream. It's a minor clarification, but if you include dividends, XLU has returned close to 2% for the year, versus a -0.1% loss if you don't consider them. It's still not up to par with the return of say SPY (+10.5% price, +11.71% if you include dividends), but in any analysis of returns I tire of seeing people ignore dividends.
    Aug 12 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower [View article]
    Interesting read, but grossly oversimplified. How about a comparison showing the inflation-adjusted returns on other investments, based strictly on price or index levels? Do gold, real estate, or commodities stack up any better? I would like to see the data, but I doubt it.

    Also, what happened to dividends? This is interesting from a price index perspective, but dividends are a key contributor to overall performance, and they are effectively being ignored. Thrown those into the mix, particularly if reinvesting dividends back into the market, and the prognosis changes considerably. I've yet to see a gold bar provide me with any type of a dividend over time.
    May 27 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield Blue Chips Set to Rally? [View article]
    I'd argue that this article may have been great a month ago. Is it too late now? I think it's very dependant upon the company. BP for example, still sports a hefty dividend. But it's price has already come up nearly 40% from it's low in early March (up from ~$33 to ~$47). That being said, I still think BP is a great buy even at $47, and I added heavily to my position when it was at $38. Far too many companies have slashed their dividend, so do your research. Who would have thought, for example, that Dow Chemical, after nearly 100 years of holding or increasing their dividend, would have to cut it by nearly 2/3 in 2009? It appears BP will be able to maintain their dividend, unless the price of oil unexpectently craters.

    I didn't see any of these articles being written when the Dow was at 6500. Everyone's just going with the flavor of the day, which lately is extremely bullish. I'm still a big fan of the Buffett mantra of being greedy when everyone else is fearful. A big buy-in at 6500 would have paid off handsomely.
    May 12 09:32 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell in May? Not After a Bear Bottom [View article]
    Sell in May and go away.... buy now because of the charts patterns look like they did in '33.... Sell now because indicator XYZ tells you to....

    All entertaining... but to me it's all b.s. Personally, I firmly believe the market's movement and momentum is the result of only two things: Fear and Greed. I'd like to believing that the majority of stock trades are made based upon fundamentals, and I'm convinced that true over the LONG TERM, but fear and greed rule the day when it comes to short term movements, and no one can reliably predict what's going to happen. If they could, you would be able to find a pundit out there who was right 90% of the time. Such a pundit does not exist.
    May 12 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pepsico and 6 Other 'Dividend Increasers' [View article]
    Just do your research. Past history can't be your sole guide. Just because a company has a lengthy history of keeping their dividend steady (or increasing it) does not necessarily mean it will continue. This is particularly true in these turbulent times. Case in point: Dow Chemical had kept a string of nearly 100 years of holding or raising their quarterly dividend. That is... until Q1 of 2009 when their dividend was cut by nearly 2/3.
    May 11 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market, Economy Downward Spiral Has Been Broken [View article]
    There are a 1,000,000 different bloggers and posters out there, with 1,000,000 different opinions. No one can reliably predict what's going to happen. I don't care if you review past charts or trends, use statistical analysis, or simply base your predictions upon the phases of the moon, NO ONE gets all of their predictions right, even the so called experts. If this was easy, actively managed funds would regularly beat index based ETF's. The facts prove that they don't.

    So... I love all the talk. It's entertaining...particu... the calls I've seen lately saying "Buy and Hold is Dead!!!". I'll be content to sit back and follow the old philosophies of Diversification, Dollar-Cost Averaging, and regular portfolio rebalancing. It ain't glamourous. It doesn't make for an interesting article. But down the road, I'm guessing this approach will beat 95% of the investors who think they somehow know more about the market then everyone else. The road to bankruptcy is paved with the bodies of those who think they are going to beat the odds and the market. I don't plan on being one of them.
    May 4 01:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Rally Is Unsustainable [View article]
    There are a 1,000,000 different bloggers and posters out there, with 1,000,000 different opinions. No one can reliably predict what's going to happen. I don't care if you review past charts or trends, use statistical analysis, or simply base your predictions upon the phases of the moon, NO ONE gets all of their predictions right, even the so called experts. If this was easy, actively managed funds would regularly beat index based ETF's. The facts prove that they don't.

    So... I love all the talk. It's entertaining...particu... the calls I've seen lately saying "Buy and Hold is Dead!!!". I'll be content to sit back and follow the old philosophies of Diversification, Dollar-Cost Averaging, and regular portfolio rebalancing. It ain't glamourous. It doesn't make for an interesting article. But down the road, I'm guessing this approach will beat 95% of the investors who think they somehow know more about the market then everyone else. The road to bankruptcy is paved with the bodies of those who think they are going to beat the odds and the market. I don't plan on being one of them.
    May 4 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Goldman's Earnings Signal Top of Sucker's Rally? [View article]
    "Sucker's Rally".... I don't know how many times I've seen it in his headlines. If I wisely purchased some selected stocks at Dow 6,400, and selectively sold some later at Dow 8,100 for a 26+% profit... well heck, I guess I'm a sucker.

    Review the author's series of articles. For months, he has been beating the same, tired old drum. Buy Gold! Buy Gold! Buy Gold! Back in December he was predicting Dow 4,000, and Gold at $5,000 an ounce (are you friggin' kidding me??). Read this articles, and think for yourselves people. This author, and many others, simply have an agenda to push.
    Apr 17 08:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Jump into the Markets and Be an April Fool [View article]
    I applaud the author's note that no one really knows what the market is going to do. 50% will say up, 50% will say down. All true. However, I can do without the trumpeting of past successes ("Can You Hear the Bell Signaling a Bottom?" We wrote it on March 3rd, three trading days before the 2009 lows!!!). I have a feeling that a thorough review of the author's commentaries would find an equal number of suggestions that did not work out so well. I guess that's the advantage of constantly throwing out advice... you are bound to get some of them right (and brag about it), and you can neglect to talk about all the times that you got it wrong.

    I am not a daytrader. I am not concerned about whether the market hit a short term peak on Thursday, and about the week to week gyrations that WILL occur. I'll continue to steadily contribute, dollar-cost average, etc... It isn't glamorous. It doesn't make for a great article. But in 5 years, 10 years, or beyond, it will likely make for a more sound investing strategy then trying to pretend that you can RELIABLY prognosticate and profit from the short term gyrations in the market.
    Mar 30 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Master Limited Partnerships: An Island of Stability for Dividend Investors [View article]
    Hey Living, Look at some of the Kayne Anderson funds, like KYN, KYE. They offer diversification, with holdings in a variety of MLP's. This should reduce your risk. Also, the tax implications are easier to manage as they issue a regular 1099 versus a K-1. I'm sure there are other options out there like this.
    Mar 19 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
    One day doth not a market define. Nor one week for that matter. As the previous commenters mentioned, people believe what they want to believe. In this case, the shorts want to believe that based upon one slightly down day, the bear market is back with a vengeance. The longs want to believe that it's a blip in the road. In my admittedly unprofessional opinion, the market gyrations on any given day are simply statistical noise. Any one who believes they can read through the tea leaves to interpret the future based upon daily market swings is either deluding himself (or is perhaps a former analyst from Bear Stearns or Lehman!). Fortunately I don't make my living on day trading, nor do the majority of investors. I think it's going to be a long climb before we get back to Dow 14,000, but it will get there. Whether it happens in 3 years or 15 years, no one honestly knows. But it's like college football weekly rankings... there are few reasons to believe any one's opinion, but it sure is interesting to talk about.
    Mar 17 07:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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125 Comments
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