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This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

Interesting read, but grossly oversimplified. How about a comparison showing the inflation-adjusted returns on other investments, based strictly on price or index levels? Do gold, real estate, or commodities stack up any better? I would like to see the data, but I doubt it.

Also, what happened to dividends? This is interesting from a price index perspective, but dividends are a key contributor to overall performance, and they are effectively being ignored. Thrown those into the mix, particularly if reinvesting dividends back into the market, and the prognosis changes considerably. I've yet to see a gold bar provide me with any type of a dividend over time.

Don't Jump into the Markets and Be an April Fool

I applaud the author's note that no one really knows what the market is going to do. 50% will say up, 50% will say down. All true. However, I can do without the trumpeting of past successes ("Can You Hear the Bell Signaling a Bottom?" We wrote it on March 3rd, three trading days before the 2009 lows!!!). I have a feeling that a thorough review of the author's commentaries would find an equal number of suggestions that did not work out so well. I guess that's the advantage of constantly throwing out advice... you are bound to get some of them right (and brag about it), and you can neglect to talk about all the times that you got it wrong.

I am not a daytrader. I am not concerned about whether the market hit a short term peak on Thursday, and about the week to week gyrations that WILL occur. I'll continue to steadily contribute, dollar-cost average, etc... It isn't glamorous. It doesn't make for a great article. But in 5 years, 10 years, or beyond, it will likely make for a more sound investing strategy then trying to pretend that you can RELIABLY prognosticate and profit from the short term gyrations in the market.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

One day doth not a market define. Nor one week for that matter. As the previous commenters mentioned, people believe what they want to believe. In this case, the shorts want to believe that based upon one slightly down day, the bear market is back with a vengeance. The longs want to believe that it's a blip in the road. In my admittedly unprofessional opinion, the market gyrations on any given day are simply statistical noise. Any one who believes they can read through the tea leaves to interpret the future based upon daily market swings is either deluding himself (or is perhaps a former analyst from Bear Stearns or Lehman!). Fortunately I don't make my living on day trading, nor do the majority of investors. I think it's going to be a long climb before we get back to Dow 14,000, but it will get there. Whether it happens in 3 years or 15 years, no one honestly knows. But it's like college football weekly rankings... there are few reasons to believe any one's opinion, but it sure is interesting to talk about.