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Boomtown to Bust - Las Vegas's American Story

On Jul 21 11:54 PM jambo wrote:

> JAMBO SEZ
> That whole Vegas Casino post smacks of self serving B.S. Anyone who
> believes Vegas will ramble on unscathed, cloaked in a 'value added'
> 'what a deal' atmosphere now has a chance to repair their miss on
> buying GM at a buck.
> Nice try Sparky, ....but ya gotta give 'em good marks for getting
> out the damage control PR unit in record time. Almost Gubmint style
> aint it?

Aside from calling my post "Self-Serving BS," would you care to refute ANY of the points I actually made? I hardly said Vegas will get by "unscathed." Im predicting a few BKs in the process but in the long run Vegas will survive like it has the 10 other times people have predicted its imminent demise over the past 80 years.

Boomtown to Bust - Las Vegas's American Story

This editorial has appeared in various places in 1940, 1950, 1970, 1996, 2001 and now. Each time the imminent death of Vegas was predicted yet it failed to materialize. There will be a few more BKs, probably amongst the LBO companies (Station and Harrah's) resulting is a sell off of some properties. The end result will be greater competition with more owners and a lower cost to run the places after the BK plays out. We saw it at the Stratosphere and Planet Hollywood/Aladdin and we are seeing it at TI where the new owner picked the place up for a pittance allowing him to run it cheaper. The winners will be the consumer who are already seeing signs of the old days of the Vegas value vacation with rooms at 5-star hotels under $149 a night and buy 1 get 1 half off at Cirque Du Soliel. Once the economy picks up, people will be heading to Vegas once again, particularly the SoCal weekender which is 30% of the town's business.

As for City Center, the previous poster apparently isnt up to speed on the current state. They have full funding to complete the project and very much are on-track for a December opening. It definitely will cannibalize customers at other places, no doubt but that will only help drive even more value for the tourist in the long run.

Wynn Resorts: A Logical Shorting Candidate

Im sure there is some more downside to Wynn in the next few months but not as much as you might think. I have spent a lot of time in casinos in my life including the past weekend at Wynn/Encore and while the Venetian was quite slow, Wynn was buzzing. He has lowered rates to the point where whatever people are coming to Vegas, they are coming to Wynn. Why stay at Luxor for $109 when you can get Encore for $159? The place is beautiful and you feel like a high roller just staying there. That has a strong draw in the current environment. Wynn definitely leads the sector now and when it comes out of the hole its in. And who knows? Maybe he picks up Bellagio again for pennies on the dollar.

Las Vegas Sands: Providing a Good Customer Experience

On Jan 14 12:24 AM Robert Weinstein wrote:

> I also believe that with the quality of management in Las Vegas that
> they will figure out what it takes to get the customer in the door.

Sadly, I don't have the same faith as you in the LVS management team. They succeeded when it was impossible to fail. Now that actual management is required, they are flailing. What have they done to garner such confidence? Their business model was built on selling rooms mid-week to conventioners at $300 a night along with the accompanying expense accounts to pay for 5 star dinners. Those people aren't coming anymore and he chased away those that are still coming. Whats the old saying? Be careful of those who you step on, on the way up. They are the same people you will meet on the way down. Mr. Adelson is on the way down and the gamblers he thumbed his nose at for years now are having the last laugh.

Las Vegas Sands: Providing a Good Customer Experience

I did very much the same walk through observations as you on my last trip to the strip, 3 weeks ago. While I did find what you have mentioned, slightly before average crowds in SOME places, what you didn't mention is what they were doing with their money. People are eating at buffets and coffee shops instead of Emeril's or Wolfgang's. They are drinking at the casino bar instead of at the Ultra Lounge and they are staying for free or dirt cheap instead of paying top dollar the Venetian is used to charging.

I believe the Venetian is actually going to fare worse than some of the other places on the strip for 1 very important reason, Mr. Adelson's extreme unfriendliness towards gamblers. Right now, this is who the Strip needs, people who come to play regardless of economy and the Venetian has been downright hostile to gamblers for some time with poor games, bad table game rules and ridiculously high comp requirements. By contrast, Wynn has installed good games and is aggressively courting even mid-tier gamblers with free/discounted rooms. If you have a $5000 bankroll, where are you going to take it?