puzzled by no updating

Bad News: House Prices Are Stabilizing

OK, so did anyone notice that last June, the C-S index dropped to less than a 1% increase, before averaging an over 2% increase per month for more than a half a year? This is not to mention the recent record foreclosure filings (and the Alt-A pipeline), tighter lending standards, and increased unemployment. I have news for those pinning their hopes on population growth - the population increased during the Depression years as well. I am with Optimized Prime, and I can't figure out if some people really don't have a clue or if people, such as Mr. Avent, are just hoping that they can cheerlead others out of a recession. Good luck to you all, either way... The only effect of this will be to hurt the least informed.

Housing Hit Bottom This Past Spring

Interesting view; no mention of the moratorium on foreclosures and the lowest interest rates in years that are inching up, which provided a temporary reprieve.. nor the still more than double the average supply, with a shrinking demand (based on financial access), etc. No offense, but I don't know who is dumber... you... or me for bothering to read your propaganda. Honestly, Casey, who are you trying to fool? You can't actually really believe this and pretend to study the industry? I'm with Mad Hedge, and from the looks of it, no is else thinks you have much insight to offer that isn't subsidized by the NAR

Is Case-Shiller Right That Housing Hasn't Hit Bottom?

Casey,
What about the record foreclosures that we are in the midst of, which eventually make their way onto the market at a 30% discount vs. anything else on the market at that time... plus the record number of upcoming ARM resets and Alt-As, where virtually everyone is predicting even larger foreclosure numbers? You decide to ignore that and write about a population explosion to bring about the pricing bottom? I begin to wonder if you are not a spokesperson for the NAR...

Did the U.S. Housing Market Bottom in Late 2008?

Interesting, but I'll wait for Case Shiller to tell the real story.

Housing Prices May Have Stopped Falling

I can't even believe that this is presented as an argument. This is so ridiculous that I wouldn't even bother to comment on this if it were not for mentioning information tech as a savior. Next thing you know, we'll have a dot.com bubble... um, wait, didn't we already...


On Apr 23 01:39 PM Chris Who Says Barney Frank is a Moron wrote:

> It's easier to argue that you do not know what you are talking about.
>
>
> 1) OFHEO is well known for being way off reality on house prices..
> it had prices rising almost into 2008 when all other measures had
> national prices down slightly in 2006 and falling dramatically since
>
>
> 2) Real income is falling... so the government figures are clearly
> based on a sample of government employees who, in most places, are
> getting pay increases. The fact is the people living off 401ks have
> seen sharp declines in net withdrawals, there is ample evidence of
> reduced working hours across the country as well as elimination of
> overtime and in many industries outright pay rate reductions... not
> to mention unemployment is up 3%. Real incomes are, in fact, falling
> quickly
>
> 3) Net creation of households is declining... people are re-settling
> in multi-family residences to save money and others are doubling
> up
>
> 4) The house vacancy rate is at an all-time high, some 2.8% or 2.2
> million units for sale and another 15 million units (www.marketwatch.com/ne...)
> that are vacant for other reasons
>
> 5) Rising foreclosures into the foreseeable future
>

Estimated Change in Home Prices

Moody's is predicting that Miami prices will drop an additional 40+% from current levels - which makes more sense when you consider that 2008 Miami foreclosures (at 56,000) have increased by 111% from 2007 and it takes months for these backlogged foreclosures to work their way onto the market, plus all the new inventory from 2008...

Estimated Change in Home Prices

It seems that the Miami futures index decrease has not changed from the mid 40s level, which is where it was more than a year ago... this is despite the fact the Case Shiller medium home price data shows that Miami has already dropped 38% from its peak. Further it has been dropping a couple percent per month in the past few months. That means if the actual decrease continues at its current rate for 3+ months, then it will reach its bottom and will not drop further after four more months. Seems very unlikely. I think the futures index might be asleep at the switch, or perhaps is testing the power of wishful thinking...


On Jan 13 11:10 AM D. McHattie wrote:

> I'm not sure what investors in the case-shiller futures could be
> thinking. Miami is only going to fall another 7% in 2009?
>
> I had thought, once 60 Minutes showed the graph of alt-a and option
> arm mortgage resets that many of us have been looking at for over
> a year, that everyone would see the writing on the wall for house
> and condo prices. But I guess not.