obviously rents are going down and vacancies are increasing, would you expect otherwise in this environment? Also the fact that all of these stocks are down does not mean they are a sell at this point, maybe they are a bargain? Shouldn't you instead base your analysis on price/NAV or price/ffo? Note, apartment reits are one of the few companies in this market with access to cheap financing (i.e. FNMA and FHLMC). That is why eqr, pps and cpt are buying back unsecured debt.
i agree bonds are much better bet than equity BUT if you think you are ok in a Chap 11 scenario in the bonds you are as delusional as those that buy the stock for the dividend.
i am always amazed by equity analysts that believe a company in a liquidity squeeze should not cut it's dividend. Why do you care so much about a 15% return on your capital if you end up with no return of your capital?? Also Textron Finance is NOT non-recourse to Textron Inc. An ironclad "keepwell" agreement keeps the two companies tied to the hip. I hope they make it and I think they will but it is not time to be dreamy eyed about products when you are in a liquidity squeeze. The company can still create great products in bankruptcy!
Do you really believe TXT is not going to cut it's dividend? Do you really believe TXT is not going to record more writedowns in TXT Finance? Do you realize TXT's interest expense is going up, not down. Do you really think they are not going to get further Cessna order cancellations this year?
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I don't see the logic of buying equity in a company you think is going bankrupt. If Ackman thinks GGP has positive NPV, why wouldn't Ackman buy the bonds which are trading at a steep discount? Owning the bonds would give Ackman more contraol in bk and would be a much much better risk -reward position.....no?
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