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bob the invester

bob the invester
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  • 2 Natural Gas Stocks To Buy [View article]
    Yes Europe is enforcing pollution more than China and so Europe ng vehicles are less costly right now than in the past and Europe the cost at a station is less compared to gasoline and diesel
    In China their cng is 15% cheaper and diesel the same as lng but China is doing a lot to help lng and cng stationa and vehicles
    Jan 25, 2015. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Natural Gas Stocks To Buy [View article]
    lets go over your presentation
    1 st
    For the next year,oil is going to stay cheap and a good chance for a while
    Yes there are many producing oil that can not and will not stay in business
    But with many rigs are and will be idle.
    This means cost to rent these and labor is going to go down
    As far price of ng
    You have as low as $1 k cu ft in the US
    But we will use the $3 k cu ft for the Us
    You have the importers
    Around $9 paying for ng now and as high as $15 to$20 k cu ft
    Well will will soon see that change
    Lng ships and more pipe
    Exporters and importers have put in lng plants and ships being built
    So the difference is going to change
    If I owned ng in the US
    Would I sell to the Us at $3 or export it
    I would export it
    So ng is going to the $4 to $5 range for the US
    He talks of partnerships
    That model is over
    Wprt is a pats supplier
    All new sales deals are like this
    All purchasers want it this way
    They are no longer to pay wprt for any thing to do with the engine
    They want the ng parts and no other help
    They simply do not want to pay for help
    Of would like to here how you came up with 40% of revenue for Europe?
    Yes,wprt is a good buy here but for a gamble for the long term and nothing is proven with it
    They are not profitable and will not be for a long time
    It will be 2016 before we see any major change in wprt profitable picture
    Change in pollution by vehicles in Europe and China will reduce the extra cost of ng vehicles than
    Jan 25, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations: Buy On The Drop? [View article]
    I am holding the wprt I have
    Yes wprt partnerships are doing more revenue
    But wprt dealings with companies has changed from partnerships where they jointly designed and produced natural gas engines to
    1..wprt have nothing or little to do with the engine
    ..wprt have little to do with installation of ng on the engines
    ,, it no longer will be install at a separate facility but on factory line
    In other words wprt will just be a parts supplier and will loose revenue in the rest because they will have little to do with the rest
    As far as being a parts supplier
    It makes nothing itself
    So it pays others to make stuff and resales it
    So the minute it looses volume or has the best stuff it has nothing
    Both Cummins and Weichai have the skill and suppliers to do alone
    Its only when wprt has the best product at a good cost
    In Wechai case it at little profit and Cummins its at small volume
    In US ng vehicles will do well where piped in vehicles that use a lot of fuel
    IN China,China likes to have a lot of choices and supports a lot of different
    NG vehicles increase is slowing with better diesel engines and the drop in oil proces
    oil is down and is going to stay down
    Ng vehicles are still costly
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations' (WPRT) CEO Dave Demers on Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    This is just an opinion with not great sourcing
    Cummins has just improved their diesel engine world wide by 20%
    Much of what westport is talking about doing,Cummins has done in a short time frame in diesel
    Westport is just behind in modernizing performance
    Talk is cheap and thats what wprt has delivered
    So yes they have better systems and will have better
    They are making little on system that are one year old
    The point is will they ever make enough to cover their cost of those systems to make ,design and company over head
    So far no where close
    Diesel is going to stay cheap or get cheaper
    They have not shown that they will be the one with boats ,trains and other large stuff
    But they are being left behind
    And it will not matter if you teck is better
    Others with money are coming out with systems and actual product installed to paying customers I guess they just do not have the money
    They appear to be trying and can not see where they are not well run but I do not see that they are keeping up
    Good luck
    Oct 31, 2014. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels Should Continue Improving [View article]
    Oh how great
    It has diluted its stock for 10 to 15 years at 20% or greater compounded per year
    With that much dilution they should have positive cash flow
    So lets see we should buy the stock because if yoy leave out interest and depreciation and others it is positive
    Well they have debt
    They have equipment and some is old or at least 1/2 life span,much at pilot
    They grew from trading dilution for growth
    Wall street is not going to lend them any more or if they do it will be at much higher rates or deep discounted warrants
    They are currently paying 7% plus 1% plus warrants
    What going to happen when present loans come due
    Can they borrow more?
    In any business when your borrowing cost are much higher than your competition you are not going to make it
    And not if you have no teck better than some one else anf your over head is higher than ever one else,Clne over is higher and there are many wit
    ch can borrow cheaper
    I did not see one reason you posted why clne is better than any one else
    Aug 26, 2014. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Clean Energy Fuels Q2 '14 Earnings [View article]
    a simple answer
    rev 98 million
    cost of product 69 million
    dif 29 million
    selling general and adm.34 million
    So with no cost for labor for service revenue
    no depreciation
    no interest
    And many others
    They can not even cover what it cost for the gas
    This author has it right
    They just have huge over head and are doing little to bring it down
    It not like there are not 1,000 of companies can not build and operate a station
    To start every company that supplies gas to you and I
    Many are forming separate company to do this
    They are forming companies to build and own and to build for others
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Westport Innovations Is A Buy After Weak Second-Quarter Results [View article]
    we will go over one by one
    We will start with
    No where in the world is it going to be any thing this year
    Volvo will probably be the 1st
    What is taking so long?
    It will be what middle of ext year and we do nt even now the production rate than
    For Asia it appears at best 2016
    So almost nothing for a year to show up in revenue for along time
    If it does happen in China in 2016
    Cuumins has come out with more efficient diesel
    Price of ng is rising as China has raised the price of what is charged for ng to their cost.Was under
    So in China ng is a ruff sale because pay back is aq very long time
    Who cares about ebitda
    You must be making a profit
    It has leveled of in % increase in US and China
    Till you see huge increases in volumes you are not going to see the end product come down a lot in price
    Till the end product comes down in price you are not going to see wide usage
    Where is volume in sales?
    In order to sell in China right now you have to sell at little mark up
    Westport is having to sell at little there
    What Weichai westport has in production right now
    Start up cost are over
    And yet they still can not make any thing
    Profits where supposed to be higher
    There answer
    In order to sell we have to have these low profits
    Thats not going to change
    Rail roads
    Nothing more than a trial
    Infrastructure in the US
    The two biggest
    Blu and clne
    Both have cut back to almost nothing in new stations being built
    clne does not have the money or at least keeping what it has
    Realizes that lng is not going to be the winner and any one can build a piped cng station,so it has no plan

    Aug 5, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Westport Innovations Is Set To Soar Higher [View article]
    For the US
    The truck and engine manufacturers Have not announced a big increase for the next 360 days over what they are producing now
    The 2.0 hpdi has been announced what a year ago and its still a long time before
    major production
    China early 2016
    Volvo at least 6 months
    What is the hold up?
    I do not now
    Its being tested all over the world by companies
    Things that effect this
    Diesel engines are now 20% more efficient threw computer efficiency
    You assume that none hpdi ng engines will be 10 t0 20% more efficient threw modernization with computer operating them
    So the 2.0 hpdi gives more hp and efficiency but only 10% more than none hpdi ng
    So thats my guess is why it is slow
    Whats holding back ng in the US
    I assume its the price of vehicles and relabilty
    Thats about 2years before we shall see major changes
    So the US will just say go up 20% a year for a while
    For China
    They do not wait
    They are way ahead of us
    They are putting in a lot of stations
    You have many manufactures of trucks and buses and it appears that large ng trucks sales will increase about 25% this year
    Sales in China will depend on how hard China enforces its pollution
    On new sales
    On allowing large polluted trucks to operate in big cities
    Wprt has no choice but to be in China
    Thats where the large market is
    So for the next year or two
    How successful wprt is in China is how successful wprt is
    How successful wprt partial depends on the price of ng in China and how the government decides to use it ng and the price it sets on ng
    It does not depend on manufactures ,stations and such
    They meet demand very quickly and waist no time doing
    Of coarse price is every thing in China
    And for wprt that means low margins if you want any volume
    Aug 2, 2014. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: A Flawed Business Model And Morgan Stanley's Folly [View article]
    agree with that comment 100%
    At the early stages
    Boone and management said At this time and in the future we may own a majority of the stock We may run it for our benefit and not for the rest of share holders
    Jun 4, 2014. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: A Flawed Business Model And Morgan Stanley's Folly [View article]
    i have posted a lot of this for years
    for 10 years on clne site
    Both Boone and the president have rewarded them selfs to probably `100 million and the rest of management also
    I would say they are the best bull ,salesman in the world
    They have gotten way with this for 10 years
    Both have been on news shows
    its just surprising to me no one has question them or this brought up
    They haven been on too many lately
    They are not welcomed
    Thank you for stating so well
    Jun 1, 2014. 09:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Down But Not Out [View article]
    these stations are out in the country
    So no large local
    There are not enough for national
    And not near pipe
    So cng is out of the question
    National lng is a LONG TIME AWAY
    And not much local as pilot saved big cities for their 100% running or a better deal
    If lng was successful and in demand
    Enn,blu got 1,000 times more money
    They are history
    Mar 27, 2014. 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Down But Not Out [View article]
    Has Cummins announced an increase in production over 10,000 a year?
    I think your 10,000 this year is high
    I agree that they will be at 10,000 production rate but that will not add up to 10,000 this year
    What do you base it n?
    Hopefully not the president of clne
    He said some one gave it to him
    Whats that worth?
    As far as clne
    They are loosing market share by a huge %
    Huge in cng and now we have blu lngl
    What they have about 10 lng stations open out side of Texas and California
    Thats hardly a national coverage
    The main point is their over head is twice their gross margins
    And that gross margin will come down as more get into the business
    Enn energy (blu lng) will be opening about 6 lng stations with in the next 1.5 years.That will take some of the engines
    And a huge amount of other companies opening cng stations
    There is not going to be enough trucks for much growth for clne
    They are opening stations
    In the past we saw contracts with these
    They are not announcing contracts
    They would if big
    Clne never passes up promoting
    Mar 27, 2014. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Down But Not Out [View article]
    do you now if it was part f his divorce settlement?
    It was not on the open market
    Mar 27, 2014. 06:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Down But Not Out [View article]
    they may own the pumps at stations
    Do you consider owning the pumps as owning the station?
    Mar 27, 2014. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: Down But Not Out [View article]
    a basic look at clne ans its hard to give since they tell us little about their contracts
    Its a company that wns contracts to run and supply ng
    That means they must have low over head
    Well how have they grown
    Raising money by diluting their stock
    By how much?
    20% a year
    So they have gotten free money to do building stations etc.
    And they have still lost huge amounts of money
    What has covered this?
    Dilution of their stock not only to build but to pay over head
    Well wall street and investors are not going to accept more huge dilution of their stock
    They have in the past borrowed against good investments like land fields and air ports
    They are doing this again
    So they have and are borrowing against any future profits
    They must now borrow for any future growth
    They where not successful when most was free though dilution
    They still have huge over head
    They can no longer do any big investments and that will only get worse with their debt rising as they now need to borrow to grow
    And when ng gets big and stations do well their contacts will come up for renewal ans so less margins on contracts
    Others with less over head will win them
    even if they win them it will not be enough to cover their over head
    We will say they had over 75% of the market a few years ago
    Now they are lucky if they are winning 20%
    Others with less over head are winning r at least they are winning with a less bid
    They simply are not winning or have enough to cover their over head with many more getting into the business
    They do not have the money to do large growth if ng got big
    Mar 25, 2014. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment