George McDermand

George McDermand
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  • How Volkswagen Thinks It Will Undercut Tesla On Battery Cost  [View article]
    Although Chemistry is critical I wonder about cooling and anode and cathode layout and design. I am not 100 percent convinced that the cylinder shape is optimal. It looks like VW is not certain either.
    Mar 15, 2015. 02:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Volkswagen Thinks It Will Undercut Tesla On Battery Cost  [View article]
    Although I believe in Mr Musks heroic vision. I have felt since the beginning that Tesla wedding itself to one form factor (even modified) would be a possible negative.
    I understand that the form factor is being enlarged to increase capacity. That may buy Tesla some time in the short to mid run. But this question persists. I have often wondered why GM and BMW used the "pack type" arrangement. Did these manufactures see something that Tesla did not? I want to see Tesla succeed but it seems to me the huge bet on the Giga factory will either literally make or break them. Last I think the model X will not be the runaway sales success Tesla hopes for. Although technically wonderful it is formless, bloated and plain in the photos I have seen. I do not see it stirring passion nor great sales. Sorry but the styling to me is all wrong. I hope for the sake of the EV movement I am incorrect and it does well. But for me it is about as interesting in style as a Chrysler Minivan. Check out a Macan S from Porsche. That's the way to do it.
    Mar 15, 2015. 12:02 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM To Deliver Inexpensive 200-Mile EV 2 Years Ahead Of Tesla  [View article]
    Not being short or long Tesla but an admirer of Mr Musk my thoughts are of the final evolution of the battery. If Musk is right and the commodity format cell he uses in the end provides the lowest cost highest density solution Tesla wins. If GM and it's bet on LG and similar chemistry in the "pack format" turns out in 5 years or so to be the right choice Tesla will be marginalized or bought out by one of the major players. The battery design in the end decides everything else.
    Feb 6, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Variable That Will Determine Tesla's Future  [View article]
    For the record I am a big Tesla fan, however I believe the authors argument has "some" merit. This game will boil down to three elements. Price of oil. Format and relative efficiency and cost of the batteries and the usability of the Supercharger network. If Tesla has guessed wrong about the batteries either in design or chemistry it will not survive as an independent company in my view. The Supercharger standing alone is not the final factor regarding Telsa's success or failure, just one of several elements. As an aside BMW guessed wrong about the design parameters for the I8. If it had a 55-75 mile range on electricity it would be a strong competitor for Tesla. For a thinking person who wants to reduce oil consumption, that electric range would reduce overall oil consumption by 70 plus percent. (look at the Volt for validation for those numbers) And for BMW a Supercharger network becomes irrelevant for some years. Especially since an I8 or similar designs can use the existing fuel stations without having to plan stops. As it is though BMW compromised with to short an electric range, which reduces the vehicles competitive impact. Too bad because the I8 is one beautiful design.
    Dec 14, 2014. 09:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • State Of Innovation In The Auto Industry And The Allure Of Tesla  [View article]
    I am a buyer at $45-$70 anything above that is hope from the herd. I understand institution investors are slowly leaving and being replaced by individuals. For me that is a bad sign.
    Sep 30, 2013. 04:38 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IHS forecasts explosive growth in EV charging stations  [View news story]
    Amazing how enthusiastic these guys get when they finally figure out which way the train is running....
    Aug 27, 2013. 10:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints  [View article]
    Did I not read that Panasonic was opening up an idle line and investing 250 million to modify a third line.....?
    Aug 26, 2013. 03:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Buying A Pig In A Poke With Tesla Motors  [View article]
    "Tesla speculators seem to have a Warren Buffett type investment horizon with a twist: It will take 10 or more years for Tesla to earn its way into its current stock price assuming everything goes right. Even with everything going right, Tesla shareholders will likely suffer through one or two severe bear markets in the next decade (>50% declines for cyclical automakers) on the way to earning its way into the current stock price."
    Absolutely perfectly said and I believe right on the money. I am a buyer at $50 to $70 even at that it is a risk but warranted in my book. I saw the same hype back in the day for Apple. A great company, perhaps a bit less great now with the passing of the man who helped me get my business going. I miss you Steve.
    Aug 14, 2013. 05:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Buying A Pig In A Poke With Tesla Motors  [View article]
    Back in the day I was stock analyst. By every metric I was trained to understand, yes the stock is overvalued. I would be a buyer in the 50.00-70.00 range. Even that pricing is betting on the future. But the risk to me would be acceptable. Yes Musk is brilliant. Yes the S is terrrific. And yes the sales model is better than the idiot dealer model we all hate. I have owned an EV long before it was fashionable so I get the adulation of this company. But it does not change the math for the short to mid term. I still think that going from a premium vehicle directly to a mass market vehicle is risky. Perhaps it would be better to take an intermediate step with a 50K vehicle at a build rate of 100 thousand units a year and build out the company and build huge cash reserves. Margins will be less on the Gen3 cars and a mistake in gettting that car to market will be devastating.
    To try to bring Gen 3 out early will I my view hyperleverage the firm increasing risk.
    Aug 14, 2013. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Reach 500,000 In Vehicle Sales Or Is Dougherty & Co. Overly Optimistic?  [View article]
    Honestly based on Tesla's performance in the past and the delays that are likely, 100K to 150K seems like a real lift. I hope they do that well by the end of 2016. I am concerned about scaling down the styling of the S to the Gen 3 size. Not sure if it will scale down sweetly. Going forward hydrogen is a dead letter, natural gas would be ideal for big rigs( we could really use incentives to make I40 the natural gas highway for big rigs) and other work trucks. The authors concern about BMW is misplaced. The i3 has to be the ugliest vehicle since the Pontiac Aztec. And this is coming from a BMW fan. Truth be told the Volt is a MUCH better buy in my view than the i3.
    Jul 31, 2013. 05:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Many Unknowns And Moving Parts  [View article]
    My personal feeling is that Tesla stock is overvalued by a factor of about 2. I was a tech stock analyst earlier in my career and the stock (and it's news coverage) has the same feel that Apple did during it's heyday. A charismatic leader-terrific game changing product and enthusiastic client base. I have driven the S and the Roadster and believe that Tesla tech is the game changer in automotive science. From my viewpoint there are two real risks. If Panasonic delivers a bad batch of batteries which do not have the expected lifespan (unlikely but possible) that would damage the Tesla brand. Second-rushing to produce a low priced version. Several elements have to come together perfectly. Battery prices, production efficiency and sales platforms to name a few. If I was in charge I would do an intermediate design at about 15 percent less retail and go for 100k sales a year. The S is roughly like a 7 series BMW in size, I believe the next model should be more like a 5 series. Diving down to a 3 series competitor too early is risky in my view. It makes Tesla too dependent on the mass market and overall market conditions. Margins will be smaller and risk is higher. I understand the desire to "change the world" But in this "wal-mart economy" mass market conversion will be a big lift, and take a bit longer than the optimist forcast. Still I would be long on a pullback to the 70's
    Jul 20, 2013. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Tesla (TSLA -14.5%) gathers momentum following Goldman running the numbers and finding the stock deserves its valuation only in the best of scenarios. Volume in the shares today looks like it will end up at about 4x the average level.  [View news story]
    (in response to the Goldman Jewish comment since removed)
    My mother is Jewish (she married a Scot) and most of her family was killed by the Chancellor in Germany in the late 30's and early 40's. She raised my brother, sister and I in the finest most disciplined tradition. Education was the only thing that mattered. We also were raised with the idea that our education was to be used with compassion and with an eye to the public good. That being said, If you look at the Neocon's with great influence at the US state department for the last 30 years it does look like a Bar Mitzvah guest list. These architects of horror make a mockery of the values we were taught. In my view so many of us have used our education and discipline for selfish purposes. Sadly the education I was taught to treasure has not resulted in the enlightened approach to science, politics nor finance I so desired. And for that I am truly disheartened.
    Jul 16, 2013. 05:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Won't Be Able To Profitably Build A BMW 3-Series Competitor  [View article]
    Most likely the Gen 3 will come in at about 45K about the same as a well equiped 3 series. A base BMW although a good vehicle is comparatively bare bones. Considering that the operating cost for the Gen 3 will be considerablly less than a 3 series (all costs included) that a premium will be in order. Also I would bet quite a bit that the drivetrain and such will be extremely long lived. This of course make the proposed Gen 3 a better value, even at a 10-15% premium.
    Jul 12, 2013. 03:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA -6.5%) trips up a circuit breaker as it falls quickly in morning trading. Over 14M TSLA shares have already traded hands today with the juicy Tesla news for the day still to come. It appears at least a few people are listening to SA contributor Ashraf Eassa who advised shareholders to take some profits off the table.  [View news story]
    Nothing against Elon Musk. I love his company. But it may be time for a bit of a correction. I might buy a few puts myself. Even for me a carry forward at the current P/E is a bit high.
    May 29, 2013. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride At Your Expense  [View article]
    Here is the deal. When you start bitching about Trillions spent by your Republican buddies on the Military Industrial Complex, the subsidies for oil companies and the subsidies for big Ag, let alone the payoff for big Pharma- then I'll listen.
    May 22, 2013. 05:16 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment