johnthebears

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave, I agree with your short of IYR, takes more than one day to make a market, the best is yet to come for the shorts. I even own $5 puts in IYR and EEM that expire in 2010. Unfortunately for me the "irrational bull trap" keeps hanging on and my time-value keeps going down.

A word of warning to those in the SRS and FXP camp...

Note how SRS was once $200 and now only $20?

Think about it, as IYR plays around in a trading range SRS keeps dropping due to basic math. SRS keeps ratcheting downward rather than returning back toward $200. Now look at how big the factor would be required to get back to 200. Do the math, you will learn a lot from the exercise.

So, for your protection.... I suggest you always keep a tight stop-loss order when you own SRS. The next day after a 7-12% run up, SRS always drops back with a thud. Be ready to buy or sell in the last 15 minutes. Nothing else during the day seems to matter. Never buy a double short unless you are prepared to trade often. The math factor will kill you. So keep the cash register ringing in your ears with nearly daily profits! I wish I had been smarter sooner.

When you plot on the same graph (using Yahoo charts) FXI, EEM, FTSE, GDAXI, n225 and S&P you will see the same pattern developing, world wide. Further decline is in the cards pointing back to a test of Dow 6400.

Seems the developing markets are coming to realize they cannot buy enough of their own stuff to make up for what US, Europe and Japan are not buying. No amount of stimulus can make up that difference. I understand that EEM is trading about a 40 PE! I have also come to realize that the crossing of the 50 and 200 day moving averages provide a very clear buy and sell signal for short term investors.

Thanks for all your work Dave, you are special.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It is so amazing how journalist spin the recovery story, shading the truth, trying to find anything positive to talk about, just because they have a deadline to report "something." I remember many years ago Nixon tried to talk up the economy, hoping that "good feelings" will translate into a better economy and ending the recession. It did not work. "Good feelings" don't cut it when reality of the market place sets in. Like du, gas and interest rates are rising oh well, there are lots of "green shoots" in the pasture. Problem is they are on the back 40, and nobody is working in those fields.

Just when things look "back to normal" the bear wakes up again!

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David: Are you sure the Constitution required that there be 435 congressmen and 50 senators to RUIN the country?

I have no idea how to implement this suggestion, but who ever could do it would sure get my vote. John

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

When a company falls on difficult times, one of the things that seems to happen is they reduce their staff and workers.. The remaining workers must find ways to continue to do a good job or risk that their job would be eliminated as well.

Wall street, and the media normally congratulate the CEO for making this type of "tough decision", and his board of directors gives him a big bonus.

Our government should not be immune from similar risks.

*Therefore:*

Reduce the House of Representatives from the current 435 members to 218 members.

Reduce Senate members from 100 to 50 (one per State).

Then, reduce their staff by 25%.

Accomplish this over the next 8 years(two steps/two elections) and of course this would require some redistricting.

Some Yearly Monetary Gains Include:

* $44,108,400 for elimination of base pay for congress.. (267 members X $165,200 pay/member/ yr.)

* $97,175,000 for elimination of their staff. (estimate $1.3 Million in staff per each member of the House, and $3 Million in staff per each member of the Senate every year)

* $240,294 for the reduction in remaining staff by 25%.

* $7,500,000,000 reduction in pork barrel ear-marks each year. (those members whose jobs are gone. Current estimates for total government pork earmarks are at $15 Billion/yr)

* The remaining representatives would need to work smarter and improve efficiencies. It might even be in their best interests to work together for the good of our country!

We may also expect that smaller committees might lead to a more efficient resolution of issues as well. It might even be easier to keep track of what your representative is doing..

Congress has more tools available to do their jobs than it had back in 1911 when he current number of representatives was established. (telephone, computers, cell phones to name a few)

*Note:*

Congress did not hesitate to head home when it was a holiday, when the nation needed a real fix to the economic problems.. Also, we have 3 senators that have not been doing their jobs for the past 18+ months (on the campaign trail) and still they all have been accepting full pay. These facts alone support a reduction in senators & congress.

*** Summary of opportunity per YEAR:

$44,108,400 reduction of congress members.

$282,100,000 for elimination of the reduced house member staff.

$150,000,000 for elimination of reduced senate member staff.

$59,675,000 for 25% reduction of staff for remaining house members.

$37,500,000 for 25% reduction of staff for remaining senate members.

$7,500,000,000 reduction in pork added to bills by the reduction of congress members.

$8,073,383,400 per year,

estimated total savings. (that's 8-BILLION just to start!)

That is hope and Change I can believe IN Big Time!

Big business does these types of cuts all the time. If Congresspersons were required to serve 20, 25 or 30 years (like everyone else) in order to collect retirement benefits, tax payers could save a bundle.

Now they get full retirement after serving only ONE term.. IF you are happy with how Congress spends our taxes keep on doing as we are.

I think it is time for real change. In the meantime, my observation from all the wonderful charts provided by Mr. Fry suggest long term down lines as reflected by the MACD charts on everything, including commodities.

Did you notice that Russia is about to default in a major way today?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Your chart of 4 bad bear markets is so important to consider.

Thank you David.