johnthebears

Bear Market Rally Getting Some Leadership?

Bear Market Rally or a new Bull?

Too soon to say.

Remember that there have always been cheerleaders in the stands making lots of noise to influence the folks, only to see them all sit down with a fumble or two and a few touchdowns for the bears. (this includes presidents, fed and treasury officials etc)

In my opinion, the big question concerning the stress test is will Treasury or OCC win the day regarding transparency? It was the Comptroller of the Currency folks that prevented state governments from going after predatory lending... saying that was the job of the Washington! It appears that Treasury may have the final say this time, but OCC is putting up a fight.

Some mention has been made in the press of "OFF BALANCE SHEET ITEMS" but the subject is immediately dropped with no explaination of what they are or effect those items might have.

When life insurance and other kinds of companies are included with banks supported by TARP, you have to wonder what is next to hit the fan.

Remember ENRON, largest bankruptcy ever? That was due to "OFF BALANCE SHEET ITEMS" that investors and regulators did not know about. (they have now closed 32 banks this year)

I think the delay in releasing the stress test is due to concern about what "off balance sheet items" need to be revealed to the public.

I would appreciate hearing comments by others that can calm my fears. For now, I think that the other shoe is about to drop for the banks.... then more collapse of commercial real estate and REIT's with falling occupancy, rents and income, leading to major commercial foreclosures and bank failures, comparable to the housing foreclosures we have heard so much about.

If I am right about this, look for a Dow of 4000 before the end of 2009! Pray that I am wrong, but what if I am not?