Emerging Markets And The Case Of The Disappearing Dividends [View article]
Thomas says : "It is also important to consider the relatively high level of strategic shareholder influence on corporate governance in many emerging market companies. Buybacks can, in some instances, be detrimental to minority investors when manipulated by strategic interests."
When you say 'strategic shareholders' are you referring to direct government ownership ? One would think sovereign wealth funds would be aligned with minority shareholders but I have no basis for conviction here.
Could you provide an example of how minority interests would be hurt by strategic interest manipulation ?
May 8th Siegel had a Bloomberg video interview with Steve Forbes. Siegel says 5%-6% earnings growth and P-E expansion to 16-17 this year will get Dow to 16k-17k. Then he went on to say he thought P-E could go to 18-19 next year.
What really caught my attention was his casual dismissal of excess reserves on the Fed's balance sheet. ( see 3:10 into video ) Siegel said he wrote a piece in Financial Times on this issue and said excess reserves would simply go away if reserve requirements were raised. He conditioned a rise in required reserves with dismissal of the need for Basel capital requirements and greater liquidity provisioning by the Fed. He then admitted a need to sell some securities funded by excess reserves but down played the impact.
Point #5 discusses symptoms not causes. Point #5 is inane without context.
You need to read James A. Kostohryz, someone who actually invests and actually thinks about the relevance of macroeconomics instead of cheer leading naive, lacking-in-context NGDP proselytizing.
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
Review worthy post Lawrence, thanks.
Your comment on median income dropping in the Jamie Dimon example did not make sense to me though.
re; "Hypothetically, if Jamie Dimon is awarded a $20 million cash bonus, personal income rises by $20 million, just as it would if 10,000 middle-class Americans received a $2,000 raise. When Jamie walks into a room with those 10,000 wage earners, the gross personal income figure rises for everyone in that room, along with the average earned, but the median actually declines."
I did some excel number crunching and did not find median dropping ; the only way median drops is if the income of the 10k middle income people drop; and you did not mention that. If Jamie Dimon walks into the room of 10k middle income people; the median stays the same as that of the 10k middle income people.
Not sure what point you are trying to make but I question your use of statistics here.
Company Earnings Support Stock Rally: More Upside Potential For The S&P 500 [View article]
"The main reason companies have got back on track so fast is China. With the demand failure in the Western world in 2008 and 2009 the big corporations had already shifted their focus to emerging markets. The impressive growth numbers in China more than offset the losses in revenue back home. "
Wal-Mart Or Target: Which Dividend For The Long Run? [View article]
Good illustration of the benefits of a longer term view, good illustration of the cost of short term noise trading... the media and the quants selling tail risk protection might be annoyed that you start to ignore their day to day blather but the benefits shown here are worth a look.
Bob Moriarty: U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency Nothing But A Fallacy [View article]
Bod M is quoted as saying : "I think oil consumption in the U.S. is the best indicator of economic activity because there is direct correlation between the two. [See first chart below]"
re; US economy; "It absolutely is not in a recovery."
and finally ; "My buddy Donald Trump"
That's it, no more time on this post.
I guess when Dean Maki says the US government has $128 Trillion in energy reserves he is part of the US statistics conspiracy too.
NYSE Margin Debt Approaches All-Time High [View article]
To the extent that margin debt is being used to sell short stocks, that is hedge a rising market, then margin debt's rise reflects a reduced net worth exposure to rising stocks. That is not necessarily bad or ominous.
Emerging Markets And The Case Of The Disappearing Dividends [View article]
"It is also important to consider the relatively high level of strategic shareholder influence on corporate governance in many emerging market companies. Buybacks can, in some instances, be detrimental to minority investors when manipulated by strategic interests."
When you say 'strategic shareholders' are you referring to direct government ownership ? One would think sovereign wealth funds would be aligned with minority shareholders but I have no basis for conviction here.
Could you provide an example of how minority interests
would be hurt by strategic interest manipulation ?
Thanks
Jeremy Siegel: Dow 17,000 In 2013 [View article]
Siegel says 5%-6% earnings growth and P-E expansion to 16-17 this year will get Dow to 16k-17k. Then he went on to say he thought P-E could go to 18-19 next year.
What really caught my attention was his casual dismissal of excess reserves on the Fed's balance sheet. ( see 3:10 into video )
Siegel said he wrote a piece in Financial Times on this issue
and said excess reserves would simply go away if reserve requirements were raised. He conditioned a rise in required reserves with dismissal of the need for Basel capital requirements and greater liquidity provisioning by the Fed. He then admitted a need to sell some securities funded by excess reserves but down played the impact.
Time will tell.
Bloomberg video :
http://bloom.bg/12g3oq2'
Siegel’s FT post with comments critical of Siegel’s views :
http://on.ft.com/1195WUa
Money Isn't 'Easy': 9 Points [View article]
Point #5 is inane without context.
You need to read James A. Kostohryz,
someone who actually invests and actually thinks about
the relevance of macroeconomics
instead of cheer leading naive,
lacking-in-context NGDP proselytizing.
This is more for the author's students.
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
I just don't think the median communicates it.
50,000 1
50,000 2
50,000 3
50,000 4
50,000 5
50,000 6
50,000 7
50,000 8
50,000 9
50,000 10
20,000,000,000 11
avg 1,818,227,273
median 50,000
Company Earnings Support Stock Rally: More Upside Potential For The S&P 500 [View article]
Good to know.
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
Your comment on median income dropping in the Jamie Dimon example did not make sense to me though.
re;
"Hypothetically, if Jamie Dimon is awarded a $20 million cash bonus, personal income rises by $20 million, just as it would if 10,000 middle-class Americans received a $2,000 raise. When Jamie walks into a room with those 10,000 wage earners, the gross personal income figure rises for everyone in that room, along with the average earned, but the median actually declines."
I did some excel number crunching and did not find median dropping ; the only way median drops is if the income of the 10k middle income people drop; and you did not mention that.
If Jamie Dimon walks into the room of 10k middle income people; the median stays the same as that of the 10k middle income people.
Not sure what point you are trying to make but I question your use of statistics here.
Company Earnings Support Stock Rally: More Upside Potential For The S&P 500 [View article]
Any references for this observation ?
Yield Chasers United Sets New Records As Well [View article]
Issues all investors should have a view on.
Wal-Mart Or Target: Which Dividend For The Long Run? [View article]
good illustration of the cost of short term noise trading... the media
and the quants selling tail risk protection might be annoyed that you start to ignore their day to day blather but the benefits shown here are worth a look.
Bob Moriarty: U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency Nothing But A Fallacy [View article]
Thanks.
Bob Moriarty: U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency Nothing But A Fallacy [View article]
http://bit.ly/16E3lK3
How To Stress Test Gold Equities: Joe Mazumdar [View article]
Thanks.
Bob Moriarty: U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency Nothing But A Fallacy [View article]
"I think oil consumption in the U.S. is the best indicator of economic activity because there is direct correlation between the two. [See first chart below]"
re; US economy;
"It absolutely is not in a recovery."
and finally ;
"My buddy Donald Trump"
That's it, no more time on this post.
I guess when Dean Maki says the US government has $128 Trillion in energy reserves he is part of the US statistics conspiracy too.
Daily State Of The Markets: What Separates The Pros From The Public [View article]
NYSE Margin Debt Approaches All-Time High [View article]