i believe the last up move in oil to 140+ was because demand in 2008 oustripped supply. not by much, maybe 2mbpd. but if supply is limited and cannot be flexible at 86+mbpd, sharp rises in the futures market will bring the spot market price up eventually. if producers contract out future production in times of tight supply users will bid up future deliveries. since few have been able to gage market supply and demand there will be excess up an down. see the collapse to $30.
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i believe the last up move in oil to 140+ was because demand in 2008 oustripped supply. not by much, maybe 2mbpd. but if supply is limited and cannot be flexible at 86+mbpd, sharp rises in the futures market will bring the spot market price up eventually. if producers contract out future production in times of tight supply users will bid up future deliveries. since few have been able to gage market supply and demand there will be excess up an down. see the collapse to $30.
Nov 05 08:16 am
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All Comments by bartpr »Oil: $20 a Barrel? Or $200? [View article]
this is no place for me to gamble.