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  • Oversupply, Lower Demand To Impact Commodity-Sensitive Economies In 2015 [View article]
    a recent article has the number of days supply at 135. this is at the lowest end of the range for years. how do you reconcile this with your conclusions about oversupply. the article also referenced sources of data.

    another fly in the ointment is the massive selling of future contracts by hedge funds and the rise of the dollar.
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble [View article]
    how does one preempt a turn. by the time it has happened the price is already up. timing has its difficulties.
    Dec 14, 2014. 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Irrational Exuberance 3.0? [View article]
    whenever a big correction comes staying a buy and hold position says at these level have historically return les than 3% annual for the next ten years. and yet today we have advances outpacing declines . we have a new high in the new high index comparing the last years peaks, and we have the number of stocks exceeding the 50 day ma higher than the previous peaks of the last year. there is no divergence of technicals yet. when it comes I will say goodby for now. as the market has always been cyclical todays expansion of pe usually is followed by a compression. if you don't believe my comments are not made to convince anyone. in the end we are the sole decider of direction forward.
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indicator That Precedes Almost Every Stock Market Correction Is Flashing A Warning Signal [View article]
    I appreciate your discussion of junk bonds and their correlation to the sp 500. now in this rally we have seen the ad moving avg go up to former highs, the ma of new highs have moved higher than the previous rally and the number of stocks above their 50 day ma has exceed the prior rally highs. I don't think its over but we may be close. the market does not rally to infinity.
    Dec 5, 2014. 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cheap Are Stocks? (Growth Investor Edition) [View article]
    all will change when eps revert to the mean. they always have. only the lucky one will be out then, since no one know exactly when it will occur. all the debt taken on by the buyback will come to haunt the buybackers.
    Nov 28, 2014. 08:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 7,000? Dow 56,000? Nasdaq 29,000? [View article]
    corp eps as % of gdp are at all time highs. at this point prior history say a decent of profits as much as 70% is likely because eps cannot exceed gdp growth forever.

    didnt the last time cap ex expanded in 98 2000 we ended up with a recession and market crash.
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Fundamental Reasons To Remain Invested In U.S. Equities [View article]
    all this has happened before. the usa was the last on the globe to realize the business cycle had ended. In 2000 with world capacity exceeding demand the end occurred. lowering interest rates by the fed did nothing to stop the collapse.

    we cannot be the only entity on the planet doing well for long. remember we are composed of multi nats and they will be the first to see down. then with the stronger dollar exports will remain slow.

    the stock market is disconnected from all this now because its easy money out there.
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Tide For The Market [View article]
    we may be heading for another 98 00 bubble. the last rally brought many tech indicators above their previous top or near it.
    Nov 23, 2014. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Stock Market Highs... Are They Justified? [View article]
    the market again defies all logic. new highs on this rally exceeded the prior, stock above their 50 day ma reached the prior rally. advances met their prior rally. the next dip , if it does not go down to the last, will be a buying opportunity. putting all logic fundamentals aside. if the market is driven by pe expansion, so be it.
    Nov 22, 2014. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Worry About Market Crash 2015 [View article]
    twenty years is a long time horizon. the next ten years may not be so profitable as history has it that the return froward has historically been less than 4%. one good recession could knock off 30% easy. no one talks about recession but the business cycle is not dead.

    in your chart you should remove the 95 to 2003 period because it distorts the history going forward.

    how would you fold in the effect long term of qe infinity into these returns. impossible comparison i posture.
    Nov 21, 2014. 11:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Breadth Is Trying To Tell Us Something About Risk [View article]
    take the 10 day ma of advances on the nasd and over the past two years the cycle has followed a tight range high not exceeding former highs by much and lows doing like wise. it is telling me business is so far the same. its the same for the new highs. they have reached the level of the former high without difficulty. i dont see a market top yet based on any divergent signals. none of this does not say a black swan cannot appear. there many potential.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Junk Bonds Sending A Warning Signal? [View article]
    the junk bond market has been alive with debt to small cap oil fracturing firms. wiht oil lower now many of these guy will find it difficult to continue forward. one sign is the ability to roll over their debt predicated on eventual prosperity. the may be a defual run in this market in the near future.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar: All Set For Major Bull Run [View article]
    several points of disagreement here. the manufacturing rebirth is non existent.
    there has been no growth of productivity investment since 97-2000. then the world capacity went berserk. since then the multinats have expanded offshore to our regret. all the current investment by sp 500 has been in stock buybacks. productivity growth has been by cutting workforce, at the expense of making products with less quality. fewer labor means less reliability .

    the dollar rise has a way of backfiring like in 2000 when our export markets dried up.

    shale oil and gas may cut mfg costs but does nothing for productivity. as the price of shale drops less will be developed as it is high cost production.

    the us economy has been growing for many years. it may take a break soon as its is one of the longest cycles up in a long time.
    Nov 15, 2014. 07:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Oil Production Set To Plummet? [View article]
    this will mean many defaults of funk bonds that were used to finance well development. bonds were being rolled over at maturity. if the market for credit here tightens up. then their credit is zero. if this flows over to other bonds because of risk who knows where it will end.
    Nov 15, 2014. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Unique Way To Use The Shiller PE As A Market Indicator [View article]
    hussman compared numerous indicators using a ten year subsequent span and all had the same conclusion. at these values today subsequent returns had a less than 4% annual rate. that is all I need to be wary of any long term holding at these prices. can the market go higher. of course. how much am I willing to bet on going against the ten year odds. very little. it a traders market for now. big swings are starting and when this happens downside risk has magnified.

    as for this time its different because of rapid trading. this just magnifies risk because now the computer are in command. with volume lower than before risk is all the more magnified.

    too many try to criticize the pe10 as a timing tool. it never was intended as one, so why even go there. go back to its simplicity of looking at subsequent ten year returns. I know hussman has been wrong about this market for years, but does it remove the fact of the ten year history which is carved in stone.
    Nov 14, 2014. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment