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bartpr

bartpr
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  • Market Timing Report: Short-Term Sentiment Improves, Long-Term Outlook Worsens [View article]
    what ifs. if profit margins begin to fall will the buy back binge continue. I think not. at what point do the increase in margin calls cause forced selling. at what point does the junk bond binge begin to unwind. some of this has to happen before I am confidence of being long.
    Oct 28 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: New Record Highs Imminent [View article]
    market valuation are high yet and earnings growth may suffer soon from the high dollar. it has happened in 2000. next is the current pe at 20+ with its forward looking return at less than 3% over the nrxt 10 years. you can reference schilers pe 10 for the same projection. prior to the current fall the advance declines failed to reach new highs with the spy or dow. the hew hi lo index topped out many months earlier. the number of stocks above their 50 day ma also topped out prior the last rally high. margin debt has yet to be liquidated. I believe these issues have to be resolved before a major advance.
    Oct 26 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Stock Market Selloff Looms As The Fed's QE3 Ends [View article]
    what is the next driver of technology. we are now at a plateau of technology and may have to wait for years to see a new arm arise. manufacturing technology has peaked out with its full implementation of robotics. we still have to improve what we have like the fiasco at takada. its use of assembly technology has not been implemented as well as needed and the result is failure of air bags. I believe the robotics industry did as much as it could with the tech it had at hand but new has not developed yet, so a stall is at hand.
    Oct 25 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unprecedented Fear Reset: What Does It Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    this is nothing more than the herd instinct of human behavior. what has really changed in the last month or so. Earnings growth? More corp buy backs? More leverage speculation? gov instability? Banking instability? gdp growth prospects?
    Maybe this is the start of a new bull run? or maybe a reaction to stark oversold?

    Until the technical indicate confirmation of a new bull run, I question all this. we need to see new highs on advance declines, new hi lows, a continued decline of stocks below the 50 day ma.

    2009 mar saw a massive injection of gov spending coming and big spending means more gdp growth. what do we see now. more qe from the incompetent fed.
    Oct 25 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Looks Like The Lower-Risk Buying Opportunity We've Been Waiting For [View article]
    you are saying this is just another buy the dip. the technical say this is the biggest drop in indicators since 2011. so now we have the new highs/los in rebound, the ad dec in rebound, the stock below their 50 day ma in rebound. to continue the bull these all have to exceed their previous highs. a big order this late in the game. but its all possible because of a pe driven market.
    Oct 24 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The All-Clear Is Not Quite Here [View article]
    a market driven by a central bank whose flooding the market with unborrowed reserves and produced little in the way of growth, a market driven by buybacks that support earning growth, a market driven by high margin. this will go on only so long until all the buyers are in. then reality will take over. now the dollar will have poor offshore earning coming in. this was a significant ending point of the 2000 business cycle and may prove a disaster again. I am out of this game for now. its too much with the increased volatility. the game has changed, period.

    this last move down has seen many internals fail like never happening in any other correction from, 09 forward, so all this bullish mania may soon end. the next month or so should be interesting if the continued failure of internals reins supreme.
    Oct 24 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bold Forecast: Wednesday Was Not The Bottom [View article]
    the final tale will be told when whatever rally there is from here. if many of the technical indicate continued weakness and fail to new low point in a correction we are in trouble yet.
    Oct 17 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sell-Off Is Noise, Do Nothing [View article]
    in todays manipulation of the risk free rate erp means nothing. how is it related to the massive corp buybacks that phony up earnings and the massive margin debt and the massive junk bond debt and the massive unborrowed reserves and perhaps its will make more sense
    Oct 17 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Equity Markets Should Not Crash [View article]
    what is left for the next crisis. I guess giving out cash for free is the answer. the banks are already overload with unborrowed reserves. is there a new mechanism to stimulate. no one has found any yet. more gov spending coming to artificially fix everything.
    Oct 16 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Pile Back Into Silver Now? [View article]
    silver has some correlation with the dollar, but is also has a big industrial use and there is a excess of demand over supply since the mining cost is greater than the selling price. when the shortage get acute, prices will change direction. production capacity has been going down for at least a year and its take a year or so to change production levels. this will al take time. if you cant wait then get out .
    Oct 16 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The S&P 500 Fall To 1,625? [View article]
    whats with this belief of the overwhelming power of the fed. they could do nothing in the 07 drop or the 2000 drop or the 87 drop for that matter. they may start a fire under the market but keeping it on fire is another matter. they started many this time but a hedge fund with margin calls is on another planet when cash has to be laid out. the fed is the last thing on their minds.

    adding to unborrwoed reserves at this point will not change the underlying economics or any other reason for the fall.

    these are good reminders that corrections do not always come in one down move so be alert to more to possibly come.
    Oct 16 12:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Sell-Off Is The Next 'Buy The Dip' Opportunity In Stocks [View article]
    its may be way too early to do anything. a base has to be built which requires a move up from here and eventual support. if this is a v bottom then I will be late on board. better to wait than be too early.
    Oct 15 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could The 'Shale Oil Miracle' Be Just A Pipe Dream? [View article]
    this will end in disaster. these junk yard drillers can refinance their bonds. when the refinance market dries up so will this stuff.
    Oct 14 07:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks And Corporate Profits Will Revert To The Mean [View article]
    many out there say the market cant possibly go down. where have they been for the last 50 years. excellent summary
    Oct 14 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Equities - There's A Sense Of Panic In The Markets [View article]
    japan has tried qe in the 90's and it totally failed. why it has been done here shows the weakness of the global economic system.
    Oct 14 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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