bartpr

Dubai Will Test the Bulls' Mettle Today

enigmaman, are we all living in a fur lined shell. there is a world out there.

Another 'V' Sign: Sharp Upturn in Consumer Spending

ok lets increase capacity and see what happens. the last boom occurred because of the expansion of home equity credit. it was not increased cap exp. that came later.

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

you cant take a trend that developed in 89 to 97 and then superimpose it on the current market. there is no basis for this in economics or math. the only trend that is visible here is continued volatility. who knows where this all ends

to davewmart. when all these buyers mail back their keys where will they then go. i bet for those who can make payments it is cheaper to stay than try and find the same dwelling and then lose their credit standing.

New Mini-Bubbles in the Making

bert, you have been the eternal bear. is this a secular bear market. probably. are there bull rallys in a secular market.yes. at this point the yield spread difference between the 10 yr and 2 yr is maxed out.
a big downtrend does not usually occur until the yield invert. check out all the long term trend in the spreads and the market.

also, the lead indicators have been going up. this wil play out for some time to come, imo.

High Exposure to Equities? Be Careful Out There

two points. bull markets do not end with the 10 year and 2 yrs treasury spread at a max out. the end comes with the yield inverted. short greater than long.

the leading indicators are rising. this would be the shortest bull market in history based on the short time the indicator has been rising. wait for it top start a top.

the market is overpriced today. a correction will cure that. but a crash. no excesses yet. when excesses start developing then watch out. also, the next phase in stimulus has to start soon. infrastructure spending is coming.

Housing Prices Are Rebounding

you forgot to mention the option interest arm that are due to reset in 2010 and 2011. i look for a new decline in prices from more defaults.

Investors Still Nervous, Despite Equity Rally

and why would investors run to equities? didnt the equity market wipe out the savings and retirement? everone is not as stupid as the wall street bas***ds believe. recently retired and down to 20% equity.

Market Outlook: What Makes Us Optimistic

how can anyone expect the middle calss to come back for more risk when his retirement is gone and house value has collapsed. its not about making money and taking risk now. its about preserving what you have. maybe there will be a resurgence of growth from some qtr in the near future, but is dont see it yet. the last bubble was fed by home equity loans. there is no more money to borrow to buy .

Husebye: A Contrarian's View of the Markets

two point are contradicting your predictions for the near term.. leading econ indicators are going up. the market contiues up when this occurs.

secondly, the slope of the yield curve favors a bull market now yield diff between the 10 yr and 2yr is at maxout. market usually continue up until the spread goes to zero or below. ic, inverts.

this is not to say that a secural bears market exists. but it is foolish to not follow favorable trends as opposed to ingoring favorable trends and wait for the secular predominate.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

your analysis follows the same conclusion as the pe10, the spy price to 10 years average earnings. look at each. they are correlated.

Historical Bull Market Returns, Duration Suggest More Upside for the Current Rally

we are in a bear market that started with the 2000 top. its appears secular in nature to me because of the failure of the 2007 move to continue upward. secural bears last 16 yrs on average for the past 100 years history.

given the lack of money of the average investor to drive stocks upward after the loss of retirement and housing values, i am on the side of caution. lets say the mkt moves up for another year to finish the stimulus funding. whats to drive it up more. pulling money out of home equity to fuel the market is not in the cards any more.

Since When Does the 10-Year Yield Move Inversely to the S&P?

its not the short terms moves that are significant. its the slope of the yield curve that counts. every bull market has been marked by the 10 yr exceeding the 2yr by wide margins. when the slope inverts, then watch out.

Nifty Fifty Redux? Large Cap Strength, Small Cap Weakness

no one knows where the dollar will eventually go to. if this is the driver of large caps, when the dolar recovers, look out. it will not stay down forever, doolar demoninated us debt will ot stand for it. interest rate increases will be massive to save it. just like the depression years when rates had to go up to fend off gold withdraws. gold is not the standard now but foreign investors in us debt will nto stand for depreciation of the investments forever.

Will the 'Smart Money' or the 'Dumb Money' Be Right This Time?

sentiment below 25 has given mixed signals. hence it is not reliable. when it works it is great. when it fails, losses are the result.

Government Spending Binge Weighing on Markets and Consumers

you are wearing blinders. what happened from 29 to 32. nothing. 45% of the banks closed. 25 % unemloyment. wealth concentrated in the top 1% of the population. interest rate high. balanced budget.
how much does the man in the street have to suffer for the sins of the wealthy.

you all sound like repub lemmings. spend a trillion on a stupid war, but screw the common man. let the ins companies get rich but let
those who lost their ins get screwed.

a retired independent
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