bartpr

Sidelined Cash: Fuel for the Fire

why would anyone think that the small investor who has lost all his home equity and a chink of 401k retirement be ready to do it all over again. common sense say it will not happen. leave it to the next generation, who will inherit all the debt sins of the past.

Market Rally: Why So Much Pessimism?

chasing bonds is frought with risk. the monetary base created by the fed is incredible. once it is converted into money supply outstanding in the form of loans inflation is back and bonds are toast.

also, the fed has bought a ton of treasuries because of the lack of buyers. without the fed, interest rates would have climbed.

new highs and lows should be measured from the mar bottom and not a years back. it presents a better picture of buyers and sellers.

Dow Hits New Bull Market Highs

investors are now in rick avoidance. small caps have taken a back seat now. the market is not broad but isolated. maybe time for a correction. next few weeks may tell.

Bonds Signal Inflation Is Coming

inflation has never been good for stocks. witness the 70-80 period.
where are alll these investors money coming from. their home equity is gone. their 410k are decimated.

Sentiment Overview: A Scarcity of Bulls

the 60% peak this year so far after this rally tells me something. the individual investor is not participating in this market as the past. this is much lower than the 90% in mar rally of 03. maybe the individual investor has so much loss yet that many are disillusioned with the market. also, with the loss of home equity of everyone who owns a home, this market will go nowhere for years.

Senator Schumer Misses the Full Picture on A-Power's Joint Texas Wind Farm

no one mertions the damage cost to the environment from continued use of coal. what about the operating costs of coal vs. wind. wind operating cost is zero. about the variability of wind and solar. there are now large capacity flow batteries that can harness the excess power of wind and solar and deliver it when needed.

Two Great Bounces: 1929 vs. Today

the 29 32 market failed because hoover would not support keeping the banks from failing. he also pumped up interest rates because of the outflow of gold from the us. he also felt that there was a need to support high wages in industry but let prices of goods fall. dont forget the smoot hartley tariff that froze world trade. is this happening now?
we have other problems that have yet to unfold. the massive injection of dollars into the system is one major .

4 Possible Market Scenarios, Updated

inflation will come from the massive amount of reserves being held by banks in the form as a gift from the fed. this is now in treasuries, but it will eventually be distributed as loans and the money supply will explode. once these are issued they cannot be recalled. this will be the greatest increase in mony supplu ever. i am mostly in cash.

Oil: $20 a Barrel? Or $200?

i believe the last up move in oil to 140+ was because demand in 2008 oustripped supply. not by much, maybe 2mbpd. but if supply is limited and cannot be flexible at 86+mbpd, sharp rises in the futures market will bring the spot market price up eventually. if producers contract out future production in times of tight supply users will bid up future deliveries. since few have been able to gage market supply and demand there will be excess up an down. see the collapse to $30.

this is no place for me to gamble.

Lack of Selling Pressure a Positive Signal

the stocks advancing in the last upmove have been dismal. we are in some kind of correction that is too early to define.

Understanding Energy: Professional Money Management and Peak Oil

peak oil is not exactly correct.when the price of oil rises sufficient to convert coal to gas tyhe reserve will be rethought.

Roubini Sounds the Alarm (Again)

what if all these shorts had to cover. we have aother financial crisis on our hands. they have to sell emerging mkts and commodities to cover. this is too much for me, retired and down to 20%

S&P 500 Just Can't Decide

is this the correction that is expected? when it comes the 10 wk snp ma will be turning downward. the 20 wk ma may do also. this is enevitable. every short term correction has done so in a bull market.
if the bear is in command the correction will be prolonged. who knows.

For Your Perusal: The Glory of Free Market Oil Supply

price does not hae to be analyzed to see where peak oil has occured.
july 2008 was it even when price did not peak yet. even with the severe downturn in the world economy demand dropped only 6%. how the price got down to $30 is beyond me. but i suspect it was the
dollar rally. just like now the dollar is down and oil is up. it does not appear to entirely depend on supply and demand but what the equivalent market price of oil is at some dollar reference value. what this is. who knows.

not liking to play the oil market because it is betting on the dollar.

Unresolved Financial Troubles: Three More Warning Shots

in the thirties both hoover and frd screwed up the economy. both initiated high interest rates and the results were bad.