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bartpr

bartpr
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  • New Stock Market Highs...Are They Justified? [View article]
    the market again defies all logic. new highs on this rally exceeded the prior, stock above their 50 day ma reached the prior rally. advances met their prior rally. the next dip , if it does not go down to the last, will be a buying opportunity. putting all logic fundamentals aside. if the market is driven by pe expansion, so be it.
    Nov 22 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Worry About Market Crash 2015 [View article]
    twenty years is a long time horizon. the next ten years may not be so profitable as history has it that the return froward has historically been less than 4%. one good recession could knock off 30% easy. no one talks about recession but the business cycle is not dead.

    in your chart you should remove the 95 to 2003 period because it distorts the history going forward.

    how would you fold in the effect long term of qe infinity into these returns. impossible comparison i posture.
    Nov 21 11:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Breadth Is Trying To Tell Us Something About Risk [View article]
    take the 10 day ma of advances on the nasd and over the past two years the cycle has followed a tight range high not exceeding former highs by much and lows doing like wise. it is telling me business is so far the same. its the same for the new highs. they have reached the level of the former high without difficulty. i dont see a market top yet based on any divergent signals. none of this does not say a black swan cannot appear. there many potential.
    Nov 20 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Junk Bonds Sending A Warning Signal? [View article]
    the junk bond market has been alive with debt to small cap oil fracturing firms. wiht oil lower now many of these guy will find it difficult to continue forward. one sign is the ability to roll over their debt predicated on eventual prosperity. the may be a defual run in this market in the near future.
    Nov 20 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar: All Set For Major Bull Run [View article]
    several points of disagreement here. the manufacturing rebirth is non existent.
    there has been no growth of productivity investment since 97-2000. then the world capacity went berserk. since then the multinats have expanded offshore to our regret. all the current investment by sp 500 has been in stock buybacks. productivity growth has been by cutting workforce, at the expense of making products with less quality. fewer labor means less reliability .

    the dollar rise has a way of backfiring like in 2000 when our export markets dried up.

    shale oil and gas may cut mfg costs but does nothing for productivity. as the price of shale drops less will be developed as it is high cost production.

    the us economy has been growing for many years. it may take a break soon as its is one of the longest cycles up in a long time.
    Nov 15 07:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is U.S. Oil Production Set To Plummet? [View article]
    this will mean many defaults of funk bonds that were used to finance well development. bonds were being rolled over at maturity. if the market for credit here tightens up. then their credit is zero. if this flows over to other bonds because of risk who knows where it will end.
    Nov 15 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Unique Way To Use The Shiller PE As A Market Indicator [View article]
    hussman compared numerous indicators using a ten year subsequent span and all had the same conclusion. at these values today subsequent returns had a less than 4% annual rate. that is all I need to be wary of any long term holding at these prices. can the market go higher. of course. how much am I willing to bet on going against the ten year odds. very little. it a traders market for now. big swings are starting and when this happens downside risk has magnified.

    as for this time its different because of rapid trading. this just magnifies risk because now the computer are in command. with volume lower than before risk is all the more magnified.

    too many try to criticize the pe10 as a timing tool. it never was intended as one, so why even go there. go back to its simplicity of looking at subsequent ten year returns. I know hussman has been wrong about this market for years, but does it remove the fact of the ten year history which is carved in stone.
    Nov 14 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Now More Expensive Than At The 2007 Peak [View article]
    all this talk of finding value at a market up for this many years. i fear some of you folks are rookies and have not been through the 2000 or 07 collapse. all stock go down when a big correction occurs. value now at this point is a two edged sword, low pe ratios now also mean that the stock is a dog. no one has paid any attention to the low pe stocks now because they are poor investments. remember that the are up cycles and down cycles and each has its turn.

    where is all this eps growth to come from, exports to europ, sa china, the em. fill me in. i am in the dark.
    Nov 13 08:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell-Off Coming - Prepare Accordingly [View article]
    i don't know if we are at a top yet because the number of stocks above their 50 ma have just reached their prior level rally. the new highs have exceeded the prior level rally. the 10 day ma of advances have also exceeded the prior level rally. the next correct and subsequent rally should say more on this. this is a very tricky game now, more than any other time of this bull
    Nov 12 12:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Commodity Black Hole: Will The Dollar Cause Commodity Prices To Make New Lows? [View article]
    the dollar run has eventual consequence like being the large contributor to the 2000 recession when it destroyed our export market. so every action has its reaction. us cannot be the only game in town for long. we live in a global economy and one country cannot diverge from others for long.
    Nov 11 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Do The Lessons Of History No Longer Apply? [View article]
    john is right about one thing. 20% growth in gdp in five years and 200%. it seems there is a disconnect here. now that the market has exceeded the valuations of 07 we can now try for the 2000 excesses. remember both were massive corrections and the business cycle was supposed to go on forever.
    Nov 10 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The Stock Market Is Overvalued By 100% (Podcast) [View article]
    he is talking about future returns. it matters unless you do not plan on being part of it.
    Nov 10 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dismal Year For Gold Stocks May Present Opportunity For Patient Investors [View article]
    precious metals are driven by speculators in the futures market in relation to the direction of the dollar value. any attempt to devine the dollar is almot impossible. when the dollar was going down during the 2000's gold had its day. what is the direction of the dollar long term today, who knows. it depends on too many factors to analyze.
    Nov 9 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Are Strange Things Happening With The Gold Held At The Gold ETFs [View article]
    for sinver speculators have now sold an incredible number of futures contracts and there has been heavy selling of etfs via shorting. it seems the majority of pricing is don't by speculators like during the 09 rise. as soon as another crisis hits I believe the rise will be in proportion to the crisis. all it takes is a liquidity crisis. patience is required here.
    Nov 9 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: The Economic Conditions Are Not Ideal For A Sustained Rally (Part 1) [View article]
    what do the speculators selling future contracts know that the long term holder of slv don't know. maybe they can see that the forward needs of silver is a sham, that the supply is limited by now production cost greater than sell price but this is also a sham, that many mines have shut down because of losses , but also a sham, that long term growth needs of silver in solar is a falsehood just like the dumping of solar etf's.

    now to the liquidation of slv by many investors. one sell feeds on another just like securities. until this spell is broken prices may continue downward.

    many players look at the dollar trend in dumping silver. does anyone know the direction of the dollar this coming year. more speculators again.

    I am a multi year holder and have other commodities for the long term, all just acquired last month. I expect not to buy at any bottom in anything.
    Nov 5 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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