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bartpr

bartpr
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  • In The Next Correction, Will You Be A Winner Or A Loser? [View article]
    I have been through the buy and hold of 2000 and 07, having gotten back to even in 2012. this is enough for me as there will be another correction coming. no one know when or how deep and many will say it will be very little because of all the fundamental that are strong. I see the market as overvalued and I am not willing to wait for a correction or hold through one. the last two have been too gut wrenching. I don't know how old your reader base is but I am 74 and looking to get back in at some future time when pe ratios stop expanding, margin debt goes down, and the economy slows down. an expanding economy means little at this point because the market always tops before the economy turns. when the consumer say its time to stop buying the fed can do nothing to change that so its ability to continue growth is hampered by the participants.
    Sep 18 07:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed: There Is No Bubble, There Is No Timeline, There Is No Exit Strategy [View article]
    the excess reserves are no bubble. really, what planet does the fed reside on. when have they ever seen reality.
    Sep 18 06:56 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: A Warning From Graham And Dodd [View article]
    no one yet know when the consequences of all the excess reserves will play into stock valuations, either by high inflation or fed attempts to lower reserves. so now we have a new economy. it does not look like a good future going forward. I will sit this one out for now. a good remeinder of where we are at, john
    Sep 16 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Stealth Liquidation In Stocks Underway? [View article]
    finally a spectrum of information that is telling, not some one liner about some index having potential to go up 20to 40% before the top.
    Sep 16 08:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Bring Silver Down? [View article]
    some have said silver is now below its extraction prices. if so, and demand is stable price has to rise to meet it. silver is not gold in the sense it is an active industrial metal and essential for manufacturing. some mines have had losses so far. this can only continue so long before production evaporates.

    I looked at the past peak period in silver at $50 in 2011 there was no justification for this price. it was all done by speculation. maybe a new speculative wave will be coming soon. I doubt it, but economics over the long term has to prevail for this metal and that looks good. remember there is no substitute.
    Sep 16 08:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Hard To Ignore George Soros' SPY Put Position Anymore [View article]
    the margin debt has to peak out and fall some before it means something. at the prior peak many thought it was time for a fall, just to see margin climb to new highs. better have some other signals to go along with this one.
    Sep 14 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    gold goes opposite the dollar. if one can see the dollar at a top go for it. I am not smart enough to call the dollar.
    Sep 14 02:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Disinflationary Consequences Of China's Economic Slowdown Starting To Be Felt? [View article]
    china is a programmed economy. how else would they have 70 million unsold apartments in cities. the gov controls the largest industries. stocks are cheap because of the underlying economy, not from undervaluation.
    Sep 13 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing [View article]
    what was reagan famous for? record plant growth offshore. record m&a activity financed with junk debt. the start of budget deficits. record defense spending all financed with deficits. record tax breaks for the rich. sure, the soviets collapsed during this time but they were already bankrupt by the time Reagan came on the scene. oh. don't forget the s&l fiasco. and the market crash in 87.
    Sep 12 07:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indicators Of Overvalued U.S. Equities [View article]
    if the fed adds a future round of qe more excess reserves will just drive up margin debt to more risky levels. at some point margin calls will control the market.
    Sep 10 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Market Correction Now Would Be The Best Scenario [View article]
    looking back at the market tops of 87, 2000 and 07 all were overvalued and waiting for a reason to crash. we are in the same boat today, we just don't know what will trigger it. rising rates, it took 9 months of rising rates before the 87 top, then it was portfolio insurance that could not be liquidated. the 2000 top was preceded by a robust economy, yet it suddenly stalled and along with the tech bubble, the bust came. then it was speculation in sub prime mortgages that few saw any harm in, until it was too late. I have had my fill and am mostly out, earlier this last year. profits taken are not profits lost.
    Sep 6 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble Is In Cash, Not Stocks [View article]
    stock supply is fixed, period. prices move by a seller liquidating to a buyer offering a higher price. with the cost of cash so low. with net worth of accounts massively negative from margin the only buyers now are those who seek to increase their margin. all this business about consumer attitudes does not play into this group.

    for a new wave of buyers to come into the market a massive displacement must occur, like a sea change in output because of some new productivity introduced.

    the older players now in the sidelines are worried about thir ability to fund next years retirement above ss payments. so I am assuming these are out of the picture.

    the new players cant afford houses now so until they have money for stocks I see the market in a trading range for years.

    lets then assumes that the money supply that is dormant becomes alive and brings in inflation. the fed will will force a slowdown. it always has.

    the make believe world of zero rates has its side affects like a possible explosion of velocity and supply of money in circulation. it may produce a big rally, which is fine but the next step is one I will willing to sit out for now. I will wait for the playout of zero rates in more inflation from more money in circulation and increase in velocity.

    all you have said points to no top for now but perhaps a continued rally. time is on the side of the doubters more than on the believers of more to come, especially when the pe10 has a history of less than 3% return for the next ten years.
    Sep 6 07:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of The Shiller CAPE Ratio - It Works! [View article]
    I am mostly out now being a long term player and not a good timer. I got out for the long term record here. I can wait for a pe10 of 15, giving an historical return of 10%. its hard to stay out but in the long run I cannot ignore history and say its different this time. so if it goes up more so what waiting is my best strategy.
    Sep 2 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Nothing Unusual About The Latest (Sharp) Rally [View article]
    hey the market is in a long term bubble rising by parabolic rates for the last three years. when it bursts there will be pain. little is talked about parabolic rises. but is all covered in "financial markets :bubbles and crashes". one thing is certain, calling a top is near impossible. my money is out for now because of risk management. after pe 20 we are in for some correction. there is a lot of bad to bring this market down but it takes lack of buyers in the end.
    Aug 31 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • History Repeats: Car Loans To People Who Don't Qualify? [View article]
    as these loans are securitized. it is a warning to stay away. default of the securities will be coming. slowdowns always come after big car sales.
    Aug 31 10:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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