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bartpr

bartpr
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  • Tech 'Bubble' Or Nasdaq Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    my question is from this minor contraction of pe will the market now continue to expend pe as before or is this a start of contraction. if the next few quarters don't se a expansion the odds are for a further contraction. this has happened before at the current pe ratio expansion has to continue or contraction has historically been experienced. pe has expanded at a multiple of eps growth in this cycle. it has to continue for further price increases.
    Apr 17 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500 [View article]
    pe expansion and contraction are the rulers of the market. most cycles have a have multiple of pe expansion/ contraction from fundamentals. only very long term eps growth can be correlated with price rises. one rule is paramount. holding stocks under a high pe environment will eventually lead to poorer future ten years returns. that is when the pe contraction takes over.
    Apr 13 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks More Overvalued Than At 10 Of Last 18 Market Peaks [View article]
    if your exponential PEses analysis follows other market trends in the past we are in for some changes in prices, at best a flat trend for year to come. going back to 29 the ratio contracted from 38 to 10, then 68 contracted form 40 to 10 then 2000 contracted from 70 to 20 so far. when this current trend peaks out below 20 is not out of the question. as this analysis is not a question of timing one must weigh is it more risky to stay in or get out until a lower ratio occurs. I favor being out as at 73 I am concerned more with cap preservation.
    Apr 13 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks More Overvalued Than At 10 Of Last 18 Market Peaks [View article]
    well done. not many too many reports like this. in " predicting the market of tomorrow", table 2.3 presents a chart of pe vs the quarters of 1926 through 2004 that were representative let say pick a pe of 18 with a five year rolling avg. and a qtr 1946.1. going forward 10 years there were no quarters subsequent with a higher pe. but pe compression occurred for 18 subsequent qtrs. to a final low of 11.

    pick another quarter like 1962.3. there were 22 qtrs. with a increase of pe up to 24. there were no pe compressions for the next ten years. this to me indicates that an investors that is at some pe level in the market had better look at subsequent quarterly pe direction and make his decision accordingly. if pe begins to contract on a five year rolling basis better start to lighten up. if it expands stay in.

    the scary part is even at a pe of 13 in 1976 the pe ratio continued to contract for the next ten years so be aware of direction. it is a important indicator.

    the higher the pe for any year the less likely that an expansion will occur and vis versa.

    the is a 2004 publication but the analysis is valid today as back then

    again, excellent study
    Apr 13 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Has Shaky Knees And Could Collapse Soon [View article]
    I have been an engineer in the auto industry since Chrysler torsion bars started failing from manufacturing problems. the switch problem is not one of manufacturing, but of user abuse. too much weight causing the delicate mechanism inside the cylinder to fail. these cars are run on proving ground endurance to detect deficiencies. if a use that a component is put to does not fall in the sphere of reasonable care, then who is at fault. this design must be compared to others in the market to see if there is something lacking here. it will not happen because then its an excuse. others have survived recalls and done well. the old culture of gm ignored many proven deficiencies like they all did, to their dismay. sure they should have acted sooner, but would it have saved any lives, who knows that. its to their credit that these failures are being addressed head on.
    it seems to me the outcome will follow like others and survival will continue.
    and I am not a gm employee. if fact, I don't own any gm cars now
    Apr 11 07:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Better Plan For The Next Big, Bad Bear [View article]
    the long term rolling average return for 20 year spans covering 200 monthly periods is 8% with a standard deviation of 4% +-. now we are at the 13% for the last 20. the record of this return offers an historical less the 3% for the next 20.
    i seems there is more risk than return until a big correction occurs to at least get back down to 8% for the last twenty.
    Apr 10 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bears 2 Bulls 1 [View article]
    where is the big need for capex. i dont see revenue growth to push capex up. much of borrowing by the sp folks has gone for buybacks. maybe will will see a rush to over investment like 97 to 2000. but in 2000 it was not needed but done by keeping up with the global investment craze. this will interesting how it plays out.
    Apr 10 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors Facing Headwinds, But Still Deserves A Long-Term Investment [View article]
    as a manufacturing engineer in the automation industry i can see the hesitation of Panasonic in this venture. there is no proven automation design of battery assembly otherwise many would jump on this proposal. its all pre development. none of the automation design companies are discussed anywhere in the news. so the investment community is left to guess where this is going. if all about gambling that tesla will have some tech breakthrough that will allow it to go forward. i don't see it for me because the unknowns outweigh the gains. all this hype is like the tech bubble of 2000 so far where new telecom processes were coming that would revolutionize the industry.
    Apr 9 07:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    you have to spend some time in automated production to see what is possible and not available at this point. if he has a demo model available that will convince the finance folks all the power too him. having seen what the automated robotics industry has done, and what he says has a disconnect. he may bring out patents of some assembly design that has been filed but just because it is proposed does not mean it will work. the patent folks dont require a demo model to issue patents. automation is a specialty developed over many years, and i have yet to see any equivalent process in the industry. if there was it would be in production long ago.
    Apr 8 09:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    as a manufacturing engineer in the automation industry I would like to see the new miracles musk has in his basket. robotics is quite a mature technology and for this to happen he is limited to what the industry provides, period. somehow all these cylinders positioned in place by a robot in a precise manner and each checked by perhaps another robot or sensors is way out yet. at some point tech will be advanced enough to do more in this area, but now the automation industry is driven mostly by the auto suppliers who use prolific numbers in their factories. what musk is talking about is not here yet and any development effort undertaken by him alone will take years to perfect, not to mention the army of engineers needed.

    a robot can pick up and place each cell one at a time then repeat the process. speed is limited because of the inertia of the arms and hand. to fast and the there be displacement because of inertia. too slow and its of no benefit. I don't know the layout or assembly procedure of this type of design so I can only guess.
    stacking cells in an interconnected manner in a carriage frame one at a time

    maybe the design can be developed to use a preassembled row by row configuration. I don't know but it sounds extremely challenging and not here yet tech.
    Apr 8 07:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Partying Like It's 1999 [View article]
    the party did not collapse just on the tech bubble. it was the global overcapacity of investment and the consumer ending the buying spree that was the final blow. it lasted until 2003 but started with the tech bubble. this current stuff is the tip of the iceburg. it will take more then these speculations to see what further damage is coming. that is the story of 1999.
    Apr 7 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Equity Bulls Need For The Next Phase [View article]
    and capital expenditures of what type are needed. new technologies. robotics have been with us for year and conversion has been rampant. more factories. the multinats have done wonders expanding offshore. they don't give a crap about domestic. major manufacturing is up to the state of the art in productivity. finance people here are not in their element. talk to engineers who are responsible for the manufacturing. they are more in the know.

    how much of gdp is dependent on industrial input. I know the number has gone down for years.
    Apr 7 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise [View article]
    as an electrical and mechanical engineer working in the electromechanical end I have seen many attempts at innovation by highly intelligent people. some have been successful and others not. this factory musk has put together is just the same as any other automated facility for automotive assembly. I can assure that there is no big step in tech here because he has to depend on the current state of automation and robotics like everyone else. so this is now in the hype stage, but down the road, his battery plant has to be a hit elsewise, just another high priced car that others have been here for years. not being a battery expert how many others have tried his approach and had problems. none of these have been put forth. I would like to hear from some battery experts to evaluate the state of the art.
    Apr 5 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Driven By Noise, But High-Quality Noise [View article]
    remember all those new telecom stock of the 2000 top. they were all destined for greatness, until reality set in. what does tesla have that others in the field don't, a hope of a new type battery, not understood by most in wall street. stories become magic then the dream ends . everyone has a form of electric vehicle that has been tested more than tesla yet this one is supposed to be the future. I guess is have been burned by too many story stocks to care about this.
    Apr 5 07:08 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Negative Divergences Set The Stage For A Nasty Spill [View article]
    98 saw a big bailout of the em crisis , ltcm, the russian default and a the dollar going up to help Europe and japan. then when the economy got too hot, the fed stepped in. a valid comparison would take some crisis yet seen. a 20%er will do it.
    Mar 26 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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