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bartpr

bartpr
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  • John Hussman: The Ingredients Of A Market Crash [View article]
    if everyone knows the numbers are phony yet still acts positively on the buybacks it seems that is the substance of 2000 over again. didn't the tech bubble begin with everyone tossing earning to the wind because we were in a different era then.
    Sep 29, 2014. 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Major Stock Market Selloff Looms As The Fed's QE3 Ends [View article]
    when qe ended in japan, their stock market collapsed back to it started with qe. why are we going to be different. in fact their qe went into infrastructure rather than pushing up prices of stock that did nothing for the economy. this story has not ended yet.
    Sep 28, 2014. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Any Stock Market Correction Could Be Fast And Furious [View article]
    you want raw data. check out the new high lows check out the number of stks below their 50 day ma. the broad market has already topped out what remains is the big caps carrying the indexes.
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Market Correction Is Right Around The Corner. Yes, Really! [View article]
    there singular act of raising rate may or may not effect stocks immediately. llok at 87. the money supply slowed and rstes baegan to climb in jan and yet it took until oct to cause a real drop. the market continued up until oct.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    I am amazed that so few of all the comments fail to acknowledge that the unborrowed reserves will present problem for the economy and stock market in the future. its money not in circulation but waiting in the wings for an explosion in the money supply, period. most fanatical bulls refuse to recognize this a s a future problem. it so easy to ignore facts that don't suit one position. and I am not a permabear, but a sit out at this writing. there is just too much speculation out now with high margin waiting for some balck swan to hit the street.
    Sep 21, 2014. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    their choice is to buy stock instead of improving productivity by cap ex. this has happened before during the 80's when all money went to increase in m&a, at the expense of competitiveness. cap ex was delayed until the late 90,s. loosing competitiveness made the entire manufacturing industry weaker.
    Sep 21, 2014. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    apples securities are in their own treasury stock. they bought it and it sits on their balance sheet as an asset subject to market fluctuation. in any correction their equity will fall according to their share drop. their book value will fall as net worth.
    Sep 21, 2014. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Up Coal Stocks [View article]
    BW say afer all the emissions have been tightened on scoal power plants its use will continue for an indefinite future. how much growth will be seen from this is anyones guess.
    Sep 21, 2014. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    your article says the bubble foundations have been laid. stuber is saying the bubble has already started with the corp buybacks. add to this the level margin debt out there I am going with stuber.

    I have not done this yet but one may want to look at the rise of stocks meets the exponential tests outlined in "financial markets; bubbles and crashes" .

    stuber's writing is also loaded with facts derived from reports. your interpretation may differ but he can support every number with a reference.

    many points mentioned by stuber follow the bubble analysis of markets presented in "bubbles and how to survive them" by calverly. he called the realestate bubble years before anyone had a clue. . he lists all the points of bubble follow through in details from other bubbles. many have yet to happen so this may go on for many moons as you have stated.

    as I am not a buy and hold fan anymore, I will to see how much of the corp buybacks are liquidated when corp profits revert to the mean. when I don't know but it has happened in the past. the big guys will sell out before anyone else.
    Sep 21, 2014. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    money for the bubble must come from savings of the mid class, as it has before. also, Europe and other cash input are necessary. with the mid class being hit by two bubbles , 2000 in stocks and 07 in real estate , I believe we are a long time away from a bubble again. many are scared of the last two crashes, seeing much of their savings gone. with all the boomers set to retire on mostly wishful thinking. what changes are important to propel this market to bubble stage. so far, an economic displacement is absent. the consumer is borrowed out. the outlook for new jobs is dismal. there are significant problems with subprime loans in autos. housng is in the dumps. margin debt is already at a peak and could still go higher.

    I know we need a long expansion like 90 2000 to propel us into this bubble but it just looks like nothing will change in the near term to do it. the 2000 end saw a massive increase in cap ex all over the world until there was so much excess capacity that the economies over the globe went into recession. the market topped out before all this as it has done many times before

    I se your arguments that conditions to start a bubble are all there, like the massive amount of unborrowed reserves, and easy access to money as the necessary fuel to start the bubble, as its has in the past.
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    you really should read the ultimate study of bubbles"financial markets:bubbles and crashes" for more info on the subject. your criticisms are very shallow.
    Sep 20, 2014. 11:53 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    awesome. you said it all.
    Sep 20, 2014. 08:41 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    the 2000 bubble ended with the final rally after the 1998 correction. we have not seen this yet so stay tuned for more action. if it happens its all over.
    Sep 19, 2014. 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Equity Crisis: Timing And Cause Are Unknowable [View article]
    your comment missed the failure of futures contracts as portfolio insurance when all players were on the one side of futures and when all tried to sell, there were no buyers. forced selling brought down the underlying stocks.

    there is no telling when rate increases take a bite. rates began upward in jan of 87 and it took some time for the market to change course.
    Sep 19, 2014. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    final confirmation of bubble would be a significant drop like in 1998 followed by a swift rally burst similar to 1999-2000, at the top of a bubble. let hope its not in the cards because the crash following would be painful.
    Sep 19, 2014. 08:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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