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  • Rally Or Collapse? What To Expect From The U.S. Stock Market Through Year End [View article]
    Another article discusses where the combined debt of Greece is 400%+ of gdp or $1.2 trl eruos. has the market played the ramifications of this out yet? I wonder. If its true how will this play out, badly i suspect.
    Jun 18 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Comes The Next Big Leg Down In Equities [View article]
    From 1980 through 2003 the ey of stocks have been below the 10 year bond yield. This was the great bull market. Since 2004 ey has been above the 10 year, and we have a secular bear. I would not make any buy signals of this.
    Jun 18 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday: Will A $3 Trillion 'Redemption Pact' Be Enough To Fix Europe? [View article]
    Phil, austerity has never worked. What has worked in bail out is forced employment by gov in projects that have lasting benefits, forced use of gov funds to start a productivity improvement project by the private sector. Productivity improvements make products more competitive, and add jobs. Just giving money to anyone who needs it is a one time shot that goes away after it is spent. The private sector alone has self interest only. their self interest is not in creating jobs for sure.
    I used to work in automation in michigan as an engineer. The industry has collapsed from 2008 onward and never recovered. This is not just automotive assembly but other activities that could be more productive. They have to want to invest.

    I look back on how the tax cuts during the bush years were largely spent for stock buybacks to raise the share prices of the big 500.
    $1.7 trl was wasted by the business sector in making themselves richer. Precious time was lost.

    This new bailout will do nothing unless it is forced to rebuild job activities in these countries. If it isnt, the end day is just delayed.
    Jun 17 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: The One Key In Finally Ending The Long-Term Bear Market [View article]
    I read recently of a chart of the long term trend of profits to gdp. This trend oscillates from a high to a low for as far back as record are available. We are now at some historical high point and a downtrend is due. One can see from the record the ratio does not climb forever so a change is coming. No one can call when the change will occur, but an alarm bell has rung. I am paying heed to it.
    Jun 16 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Has More To Worry About Than Europe [View article]
    At least we are past the clo meltdown that crippled us. Now we have the new risk of cds market imploding at the least sign of default on contracts. I wonder how much the big banks have gambled on the euro mess. They will eventually all kill us and be nationalized. Crooks will never end until they are destroyed.
    Jun 16 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Markets Teeter Ahead Of Greek Vote [View article]
    Market breadth over 50 and 100 days is pointing toward more likely downward movement than a bottom. Since no one kows how the overall picture will pan out, i believe to err on caution is best. Once these non confirmations play out a better picture will emerge.

    The fact is that we have been in a uptrend for the last 20 some days and are due for some pullback, in any event.
    Jun 16 08:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jesus, Bob Dylan And Expected Returns: 8 Indicators Of Long-Term Equity Returns [View article]
    Appreciate your analysis, more on facts than opinions and sp500 charts.
    Jun 15 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equity Bears Still Can't See The Bottom But Now The Only Way Is Up [View article]
    I believe the market has to demo some downside breadth base for the next leg up to occur. Maybe it will be a slowdown in gdp, congress in continued impass, europe in disaster, china slowing down, the coming election. None of this is yet priced into the market because the players cant know the outcome with certainty yet. Of course the best time to buy is at the height of glom, but have we passed that point. I am looking for more dwonside breadth before committing.
    Jun 15 07:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's $67 Trillion In Derivative Positions Explained [View article]
    I can now see why the senate hearings were worthless. It addressed none of the risk of the big banks. Great explanation of what is their net derivative exposure. I always thought this activity was all off balance sheet. I still wonder what of the foreign offices under a sub. Who knows what is going on there. This stuff scares me. How can any group keep track of all this, especially what is the real risk?
    Jun 14 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hook 'Em Horns: The Bullish Long-Term Outlook On U.S. Stocks [View article]
    Is the market ready for a change in economics via a possible new administration. Will there be a difference in preaching austerity and not practicing it. The average citizen say deficits are bad for us. Yet the economy in the last three years has survived because of gov spending. Gov spending in 1936 and 37 became unpopular even though the depression forces were still alive. fdr spending was abruptly halted and we had more crash. unemployment almost doubled and it took the war to get us out. I am against gov spending when the economy is strong, but who will now spend to keep gdp up. The big 500, no way. They could invest in productivity and increase our competitive picture
    One wants to reduce taxes on foreign income more. More jobs will go offshore. Maybe he will promote more pe capital. Bankrupt more acquisitions and pay big dividends to the investors. I think a royal screw job may be in the making. Names are excluded
    Jun 13 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Bailout, Other Indicators Say: Be Open To Stock Rally [View article]
    What is there to push this market up despite all the uncertainty. Earnings of the 500 being a question mark because of european austerity, the coming cutback in gov spending, always a negative for the market, the potential end of tax cuts, cuts in medicare, ending of lower payroll tax, deadlock in washington. How about the banking debacle with $200 trl in swaps of the four big banks. I prefer to wait for more calamity. Sure, we may see a spark from the spain bailout, but has anything really changed, except to kick the can down the road.
    Jun 10 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Bear Just Locked The Bunker Door [View article]
    The old bubble of leverage is still with use. We have $200trl in naked swaps sold by the four big banks. This is all buried in subsidiaries tha the average man would not be able to believe, yet alone try to analyze. The system is little better than 2008, only covered up by cnbc bull. I am questioning the bad outcome of all this. FDR could stop it in 1933, but maybe we need 25% unemployment to end it all.
    Jun 8 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Signs The Rally Will Likely End This Week [View article]
    For my money declining breadth has to max out before a bottom is near. I will be sidelined until some indication of the max has occurred.
    To add has the market priced in a possible peak in sp earnings, the continued euro crisis, the budget impass, the big cuts in gov spending? Not that i can see.
    Jun 8 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Surge on Stimulus Speculation [View article]
    All this qe is nonsense. Job growth is being held back by lack of congress getting a jobs bill into the system. Its too late for this year, but the house wants to see Obama fail at all cost, even to the detriment of the working man.
    Jun 7 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday: 'Markets In Turmoil,' Must Be Time To Buy! [View article]
    Phil, we have only seen a downstrend in the breadth so far. I will wait until the breadth has stabilized and demod a floor before any buying.
    Jun 5 07:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment