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  • The Fed, David Einhorn, And The Search For The Mythical Free Lunch [View article]
    You are talking like you will be able to pick the sale point. No one can pick a top, except by accidental guess. I prefer to be more risk off and be out now until a crash occurs, however long.
    Oct 29, 2012. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market Sitting On A 'Margin Bubble?' [View article]
    I wonder how much of any coming selling via corp execs will affect the market compared to liquidation of margin accounts , if any now.

    Also, the bull market cycle has past the 28 month avg from 1950 to now. Of course, there are the long bull markets of three in the last century. Very complicated stuff to me.
    Oct 26, 2012. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubbles On The Horizon? [View article]
    I was too naive or lacking in good knowledge to avoid the last two bubbles. Hopefully, with knowledge of the potential problems here i will do better next time.
    Oct 19, 2012. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Prepare For Upcoming Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    When have tax cuts to the rich and corps led to higher rev. It did not during the Reagan and bush years. Growth was slower than from the 50-60 period. Growth also was higher during clintons day. The tax cuts to corps were used to move plants offshore during Reagan and bush times. The tax cuts to the rich was stashed offshore. Get the record out.
    Oct 18, 2012. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market's Going Higher Regardless Of The Election [View article]
    Markets have never focused on who is in office over the term. What drives the market is earnings growth, dividend growth, and pe ratio change. "Unexpected Return" explains this with long term studies. We will have bubbles and crashes in the future, just like always. For me, My future look now is no more long term having been through two crashes in less than 10 years. I will now wait for the next recession to buy.
    Oct 17, 2012. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Prices, Presidents And Recency Bias [View article]
    The record has demonstrated your premise about earnings and stock movements. Earnings growth is but one input to stock prices. Dividends and the increase/ decrease in the pe are two other. Its funny how so many missed the top of the last crash, me included.

    Keep up the good work.
    Oct 17, 2012. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Markets Are Nowhere Near A Bubble [View article]
    Bubbles take years of upside to happen. The risk premiums dont exist anymore. Everyone is in the market and for the long haul. Stocks cant lose. Everyone is holding gains. The economy is booming. Now we have perhaps a stagflation coming and pe growth coming down, as well as earnings and gov spending. For sure there is no bubble out there.

    On corrections, No one can gage the depth of a correction from any facts presented. Its because the catalyst for the correction strength is unknown. let it happen then react.
    Oct 16, 2012. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Romney Win Could Be Bad For The Market [View article]
    paul, here are some facts about Romney. Just look at his record at Bain. Of the 350 firms they acquired, 75 were forced into bankruptcy by using the following approach. buy a company based on a positive history of ebitda. Borrow an excess of the purchase price against the positive cash flow. pay a dividend out of the excess to the investors. Now the firm cannot pay down its debt because of the excess borrowed. The funds borrowed come out of a pool the allocated the debt. Now the individual firm is placed in bankruptcy because it carries the debt of the excess borrowed. They made 2.5 bil out of these 75 companies. This is not business. This is the work of a vulture. Now, many ot the other firms were shipped to China for continued profitable operation. I can just imagine how he would cater to the other multinats who thrive on closing plants here and ship them offshore. I can just go one more but its hard to talk about it. Much of this is from the WSJ, a conservative publication. Also, the Economist has discussed much of this. Many references are specific and written before his venture in the primaries.

    Obama has made many mistakes, but he wants to control wall street excess and that is the main reason i will back him.

    Most repubs and dems dont have a clue about what i say,
    but check it out for yourself.

    Just read a few books on the strategy of the private equity funds. They are all the same.
    Oct 13, 2012. 06:22 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Romney Win Could Be Bad For The Market [View article]
    Onama did say he wanted to reform the lasw on international taxation to penalize those who offshore. Congress makes the laws so it will probably not happen. No one seem to be concerned with this approach. Cutting taxes has never done anything except make the rich richer. Even when reagan cut taxes, 40000 plants were closed her and millions of mfg jobs gone. I know you will say the economy grew, but its growth was less than the 60-80 period. Business investment was less by a third. Deficit spending exploded. Deficit spending does make growth. I am not in fovor of that though.

    My biggest fear with romney though is the desire to repeal the bank reform act. This will bring back leverage, and more risk like the jpmorgan feasco. Do we need more banks using depositors money to gamble of default swaps with no control. I am death against it.

    Also, the big 500 are sitting on $7 trl in cash. None is being used to increase productivity here. Diparity in tax treatment. Where is it. Not in the foreign tax credit where full credit is given for foreign tax paid, Not in the sect 165 dedecution, allowing full expense of a new plant put offshore, not in the technolongy transfer agreement allowing domestic expense of related party agreement with foreign subs., not ing the controlled foreign sales corps, allowing movement of money foram one country to another. Ge doesnt pay 5% tax rate without taking advantage of all of the above and more. This stuff is all hiddle from the public unless one is a tax specialist or has studied the subject.
    Oct 13, 2012. 08:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Romney Win Could Be Bad For The Market [View article]
    Where is all this Romney growth going to come from in this precarious environment. We are still under the disease inflicted by the bush years. Push the economy down and no one knows the real consequences. Certainly not the corp liquidator. His success is closing plants and exporting jobs. If he has a plan to bring jobs back from offshore by having plants relocate i have not heard of it . But there is always hope. The trouble is no one knows his plan. some say he is guided by the divinity. Who knows . I dont trust his beliefs, but this is a whole topic for hours of discussion.
    Oct 12, 2012. 08:32 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
    And what did he do. He let the banks go down. He let the market speculate too much. he did nothing to turn around the economy along with his brain dead treasury guy, mullen. Fdr came in and turned things around, weather its political or not. Hoover was a long time humanitarian, but did not have the stuff for a major collapse. Fdr made many mistakes and was somewhat dictatorial, but thing began to improve until 37, when gov stimulus was popo by the public. Then another downturn resulted.
    Oct 12, 2012. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Check out this site for an explanation of what the bls survey is composed of. I think its worth the time to look see. In general the employment numbers climb out of any recession, and fall during recessions. There are chart of each period both repub and dems.
    Oct 11, 2012. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Fallout From The Welch Jobs Debate [View article]
    Lets say for hypotheticals there is an ongoig conspiracy to manage the bls results. This would have to be done by a team,imo, because of multiple access to any algorithms necessary to be doctored. Lets assume there is an automatic audit trail to record the users of the programs, like most secured systems. next, lets assume that one or maore have knowledge of changes, like a number before and a number after the change. For this to be covered up one would have to also assume there is no one with the temptation to blow this wide open. Why not. They would attain instant attention. This is too easy to be caught. It not like Madoff having the only access to his performance report.

    I am surprised at Welsh being so dumb with his assertions.
    And what does it do to lack of confidence in investing. History has demonstrated that major off balance sheet transactions are happening with no one questioning what is going on, and the market keep on going.
    Oct 11, 2012. 08:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From 5 Years Of Economic Crisis [View article]
    Petrowski, you sound like Hoover and his clowns who said at the depth of the depression, let them all eat cake, except there was none. Keynes worked when needed, but like all economic fixes it became overused. Consumers lost $15 trl in worth because of the dummies form 2000-8, and now it is supposed to be fixed in 4 years. Get real. Show me an economic fix, like monetarism, Hayes, or supply side and i will show you failure.
    Oct 10, 2012. 08:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit From Unreasonable Fear [View article]
    Fiscal cliffs may not be the coming problem. Maybe it will be a crash of the credit swap market speculation. I know dood frank is supposed to fix this but will it really. jpm alone has at least $100bil in swap ins sold. If it goes bad for them, what about the rest. history has a tendency to repeat itself because the banks are still using the depositors money to make bet with.
    Oct 10, 2012. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment