Analyst Mayank

Gold Is Still the Opportunity of a Lifetime

You dont have enough time / patience to go through an article (as you mentioned you spend around 5-8 seconds per article) but you have enough time to post your comments. seems you are extremely good at typing.


On Sep 07 03:13 PM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> I agree with you, I would love to read even the garbage and I did
> it when I was a teenager, since then some years passed and today
> I don't read even magazines which I loved before and read in full,
> The Economist, Forbes....and the like, because I learned something
> that 90% of investors lose over time anyway.
> Assuming that this masses also watch CNBC, Bloomberg, read WSJ, Barron's,
> SA, WSJ.......I understood many years ago that it will not help me
> make money reading what others read and watching what others watch,
> so I developed my own system and I call it CIFRA.
> I have my own opinion about things and most of the time seeing the
> title I understand what is the content, I spend about 5-8 seconds
> per article, for me it's not worth more but I have nothing against
> they post their stuff on SA and poison others with news nobody can
> use.
>
> On Sep 07 02:26 PM punk_ash wrote:

Thoughts on PIMCO's Investment Outlook

excellent read!!!

S&P Further Erodes Its Credibility

As long as the financial system is dependent on the so called "credit ratings", nothing can be done in this regards. The accuracy and reliability of these ratings have been brought to open, thanks to the credit crisis, but the limitation of the financial system is that it is so much dependent on credit ratings, that it sometimes (most of the times now) undermines the relevance of credit research / analysis. The regulators decide as to in which class of securities ABC company from XYZ industry can invest, which in turn is determined by credit ratings. And the downgrade of these ratings lead to forced selling and an imbalane between demand/supply leading to yields widening.
Thats the problem..... Any way this can be solved??

Buffett: Why Insure Munis When You Can Buy Them Instead?

BHAC writes more munis and recieves more cash. Now what to do with that cash in what they might believe is an overbought market? Besides, when you have so much of cash in an illiquid market its safer to put it in a place where the cash flows are certain.

Be Prepared for S&P to Hit 350 by June 2010

What a waste of time it was reading this article.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

Totally agree with Lincolnpark. Most confusing, rather confused article ever read.

Current CMBS Pricing Is Good News for Banks (But Just Barely)

"Citi and BofA were screaming buys...." care to explain on what grounds???

The Stress Test Stress: Making a Bad Situation Worse

Clearly a loose-loose situation the current administration has forced financial system into. Reveal the outcome of the so called stress test and create havoc in the market; conceal it and create suspicion. Why couldn't they just apply whatever test they need to in order to decide which banks / FIs are eligible for "TARP or TALF" or whatever?? Wake up time "Mr. Saviour of the financial system". We have had enough of your good smiles and highly motivating speeches. Time to get real now.

The Wisdom of Half Positions

In short... Averaging pays. Right????

TALF Creates a New Class of Toxic CMBS Assets

An interesting thing to watch will be rating transitions from "not so AAA" to "so called AAA". In a system over dependent on rating agencies it wont be too difficult for a lower rated tranche to be converted into a AAA by posting additional collateral (toxic?).

Mark-to-Market Triggered This Recession; It Will Also Trigger the Recovery

Altering or banning M2M will definitely do wonders in terms of conceiling the facts rather than finding a solution and making stakeholders aware of the hard facts. The example of a fur coat is a little out of place since I haven't come across anyone who keeps so many parties at stake (shareholders and bondholders) to make a household purchase. I dont prepare a balance sheet for my house and carry all the goods at their fair value. Simply because I'm the only stakeholder; nobody else cares. It makes sense only if I intend to buy a fur coat raising money from the market in anticipation that I would be able to sell it for more than the purchase price. Hardly done by anyone....

M2M is required. All the parties involved should be aware of what value the market assigns to their assets. Neglecting this principal will eventually lead to the bursting of a bubble even more devastating than the current crisis, claiming even more lives....

Banning M2M: The Worst Mistake in History

Price of a security is a function of so many factors; default risk being an important one, however is not the only one. The current market turmoil took such an ugly shape as a result of lack of liquidity rather than increased default risk. What else could explain widening of spreads at all levels of the so called rating ladder.

One such example would be monoline insurers. Although, i partially support Bill Ackman's arguments on the viability of their business model, I at the same time do believe that rating agencies got a bit too harsh on them.

M2M for a monoline is what I believe is the violation of the very basic accounting principal of Going Concern. For an investor, M2M makes sense to know the current position (which is supposed to be the net present value of future cash flows). However, for a monoline, they don't need to make an upfron payment even if the issuer defaults; the payment is done as and when it comes due on the interest payment / repayment date.

Therefore, although M2M is a very important indicator, it should be treated differently for different market participants.

U.S. States Should Hedge Their Oil

I think players like Merril Lynch are keeping an eye on oil contango and are cashing on it as and when they find an opportunity. I guess nobody here has a backyard that can store a couple of million barrels of oil. And considering the cost associated with renting an oil tanker for a month (to profit from contango) can easily wipe away profits. Market forces as we call it plays there game.