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RobRay

RobRay
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  • ARMOUR Residential: Dismal Q3 Results Confirm Short Thesis, Dividend Cuts Likely [View article]
    I am very financially unsophisticated compared to most commentors on SA. The US Federal Government is the largest debtor in the world; the amount is staggering. The published debt of around 17 trillion is actually a mere fraction of the actual total when including the funds borrowed from Social Security and government employee pension funds. Add in unfunded liabilities, forget about it, it can NEVER be repaid! Paying interest on that debt at the current low interest rate takes a large bite out of the Treasury's income and there is nothing left over; the government must borrow more to fund it's operation. How can the Fed allow rates to rise? The Fed must keep interest rates as low as possible forever if they can. IMHO
    Oct 31 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Not To Flee Dividend Stocks [View article]
    It seems as if investors NEED something to worry about; they actually go to great pains to find something to worry about. If it's not Greece it's this "fiscal cliff" BS. Politicians are going to do what they typically do, and that is to drag partisan bickering out to the very last minute, roiling the markets (worry!) in the process, before agreeing to kick the can down the road with an ineffective and useless "compromise". IMHO
    Just venting. Thanks for the article.
    Nov 16 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should We Worry About Armour Residential REIT's Recent Price Decline? [View article]
    It seems as if investors NEED something to worry about; they actually go to great pains to find something to worry about. If it's not Greece it's this "fiscal cliff" BS. Politicians are going to do what they typically do, and that is to drag partisan bickering out to the very last minute, roiling the markets (worry!) in the process, before agreeing to kick the can down the road with an ineffective useless "compromise". IMHO
    Just venting. Thanks for the article.
    Nov 16 07:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Third Quarter mREIT Review [View article]
    It is not possible to pick a bottom, we may luck into it, but not pick it. But there is a bottom which will be demonstrated on a future price chart. That will be the time to buy more of the best performing mREITs and average down your cost. They will continue to pay the best risk-adjusted returns even if not as high as they have been historically. IMHO
    Nov 15 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Income: BDCs Vs. Mortgage REITs [View article]
    "I am keeping the non-agency REITs though as I suspect they will be less effective by the Fed's buying habits here."

    I usually detest spelling corrections but I think this one affects the readability of an otherwise excellent article. Do you mean "I am keeping the non-agency REITs though as I suspect they will be less AFFECTED by the Fed's buying habits here."?
    Sep 26 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) declares $0.09/share monthly dividend for the month of Oct, Nov. and Dec, 10% decrease from prior dividend of $0.10. Forward yield 14.3%. Shares -0.4% premarket. (PR[View news story]
    I hope that you are aware that a stop loss set at $7 does not guarantee that your shares will sell at that price. In order to insure a $7 sell price (or no sale) you would specify a sell stop limit. I think sell stops without a limit resulted in the flash crash of AGNC a few weeks ago. Many stockholders got stopped out well below their trigger price only to watch the price resume it's uptrend to new highs. Be careful with stop losses without limits!
    Sep 18 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Armour Residential's 16.4% Dividend Yield Sustainable? [View article]
    I particularly like the ARR monthly dividend distribution as it minimizes the big share price drop on XD experienced by quarterly payers such as AGNC.
    Aug 31 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Armour Residential's 16.4% Dividend Yield Sustainable? [View article]
    As evidenced by the recent "flash crash" of AGNC stock price many investors are wary of the incredible returns on mREITs and have set sell-stops in an effort to protect their principal. Many were "stopped out" only to watch the stock price promptly recover. If investors feel the need of using sell stops perhaps they would be wise to use the sell-stop/limit option to avoid this unnecessary sale.
    Aug 30 05:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Armour Residential's 16.4% Dividend Yield Sustainable? [View article]
    Thank you for that important clarification. The author needs to add a footnote.
    Aug 30 05:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Residential (ARR -3%) tumbles after last night's earnings report was accompanied by a secondary offering of 55M shares that had to be coming given the shares' premium to book value (8.6% before the offering). It's the 2nd offering in a month and 4th in the last 8 months.  [View news story]
    IMHO the FED has a very vested interest in keeping rates low forever. Not only to spur the economy, but in order to service the monstrous DEBT. I recently read that fifteen cents of every tax revenue dollar goes to service the DEBT. Can you imagine what it will be if interest rates "nomalize"?!
    Aug 8 05:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.3%) experiences a flash crash, plummeting 11% in the opening seconds of trade on volume of 5.7M shares (normally trades about 100K in the first 2 minutes). One wonders if any stops got triggered. [View news story]
    IMHO the AGNC flash crash was due to investors using a SELL STOP instead of a SELL STOP/LIMIT. Or a STOP can be executed at close when the volatility has settled.
    Aug 8 05:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Investment Updates The Extent Of Its Problems, Promises To Keep Paying A Dividend [View article]
    I used the CIM bounce to close my position (at a loss). The press release from the company was welcome considering the absence of news from them since June 19th. However still no official reports date or updated share book value; too much uncertainty. High yields available from other mREITs such as ARR without the accounting issues.
    Aug 8 05:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Investment Corp: Headed Toward A 0% Dividend Rate [View article]
    I may be overly optimistic but I cannot bring myself to believe that the same management of Analy Capital (NLY), one of the oldest, largest, and proven successful MREIT's would screw up badly on CIM. I understand that NLY and CIM deal in somewhat different MBS but the expertise of the management should carry over. I'm still expecting a successful outcome and reports soon. Will hold the stock.
    Jul 25 01:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) is selling its 45% stake in a Queensland, Australia coal mine and affiliated wash plant to JV partner QCoal Sonoma for AUD$141M ($144.1M) in cash. The deal is expected to close in Q4. (PR)  [View news story]
    I suspect this means CLF will not be interested in WLT even at current depressed price. In my opinion the near-term future looks bleak for coal.
    Jul 11 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's mREIT Entry Will Impact These 6 Stocks [View article]
    Patrick Harden: That was my thought exactly. As long as mREITs maintain their existing loan portfolios (and don't raise more investment capital through secondary stock issuance) they should have the same profit level.
    Jun 28 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
25 Comments
25 Likes