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  • Macro Update: What Is 'Real' About The Economy? [View article]
    What you say about "Tomorrow is not on the chart." is true, but if one learns to read and understand charts with their patterns, trendlines and technical indicators one has a valuable and highly reliable tool to forecast future price moves.
    Jun 9, 2012. 08:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bull on mortgage REITs, Dividend Master nevertheless unloads American Capital Agency (AGNC) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE). AGNC's and MTGE's share prices tower by about 10% over their book values ($29.06 and $21.78 respectively, as of 3/31). Expect secondaries soon to "monetize the premium."  [View news story]
    FrankEllis: Thanks for the thought-provoking comments. In analyzing the AGNC price chart it appears that the ex-dividend price drop only significantly exceeds the amount of the dividend when a secondary offering occurs. There is not a secondary offering every quarter. I would be surprised if there is a secondary in June since AGNC issued approx sixty million new shares in March.
    May 23, 2012. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy American Capital For Diversification [View article]
    By my count AGNC has had secondary stock offerings (the most recent came on 3/7/12) ten times since it's IPO in April '08. These offerings are excellent entry points as the price is discounted from the previous session closing price and is more representative of book value. These offerings sell very quickly and the stock price generally begins to recoup the discount right away.
    May 11, 2012. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Has Nowhere To Go But Up [View article]
    Thank you for for a very informative comment. What are the problems with CNG as a motor fuel such as vehicle tank capacity/range and explosion hazard in wrecks or fueling accidents?
    Apr 28, 2012. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Some Coal Stocks Could See Gains Up To 100% [View article]
    I am watching the major coal stocks closely, but it is a risky business trying to pick stock price bottoms. I would need to see convincing chart patterns demonstrating support for a bottom. Until better utilization is found for the US abundance of natural gas I expect coal and NG prices to remain low. In my opinion the met coal producers are the best long-term bets at some point.
    Apr 28, 2012. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC): Q4 EPS of $0.99 may not be comparable to consensus of $1.15. Shares -0.8% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    Although the quarterly dividend is reduced from $1.40 to $1.25, it is still an excellent return of 18% based on the fourth quarter NAV of $27.71. However, a dividend reduction is seldom well received by stockholders and AGNC was selling off in aftermarket trade.
    Feb 7, 2012. 07:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad Idea: Playing The Mortgage REIT Dividend [View article]
    I am long AGNC and watch the price chart closely. For the past few quarters the typical pattern is to put in a low on XD or within a session or two and gradually rise over the quarter to a high on the last day of dividend eligibility. The shareholder collects the dividend and the stock ends each cycle with relatively little price change.
    Jan 24, 2012. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nov. Durable Goods: -1.3% vs. -0.6% expected, -3.4% prior. Ex-transport +2.4% vs. -2.7% prior.  [View news story]
    I am amazed that the stock market indexes are rising. The economy is fragile and floundering in my humble opinion. The published national unemployment rate remains near ten percent; the actual number is probably much higher. Higher paying manufacturing jobs are exiting the US and probably will not return. Those that remain are cutting wages and benefits.Federal deficit spending has dug a hole that will never be filled. What is there to support a stock market rally; more credit card spending by consumers? Sorry to rain on the parade. Wishing you safe and happy Holidays and a peaceful and healthy New Year
    Dec 23, 2010. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stimulus Watch: How the Devil Are They Going to Finance All of It? [View article]
    On/Off (?) topic question: Is it better for Government dollars (funny money: not counterfeit, but backed by nothing) to bail out banks (TARP) before they fail, or depositors (FDIC) after banks fail?
    Feb 7, 2009. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Diesel More Expensive Than Regular Gas? [View article]
    Everyone (except those who can afford a chauffeur) pumps their own gasoline. They reach into their wallet for cash or a credit card to pay. If they pay more than last fill-up they are unhappy. If they pay MUCH more they complain, write their congressman, submit editorials to the newspaper, gets on the evening news, etc. Sooner or later government gets off it's butt, starts an investigation, calls oil company execs on the carpet, and asks embarrassing questions. It's much easier for the oil companies to extract the big profits from diesel fuel prices. Very few consumers (I hate that word) pump diesel fuel; only the commercial trucks, trains, and ships that transport every product we buy. The commercials add the high price of diesel fuel to the shipping bill to the producer, who in turn adds the higher price of shipping to the cost of their product. Surprise!, consumers pay more for everything. But that increase is blamed on "inflation" and is not as easily traced to the oil companies. In a nutshell that is why diesel fuel costs more than gasoline. Any questions?
    Jan 17, 2009. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment