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Mayer Amschel Rothschild

Mayer Amschel Rothschild
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  • ConocoPhillips Is A Strong Buy For All The Right Reasons [View article]
    I imagine that if a country's finances are in bad enough shape, it may lead to political instability, which could spook speculators, who are worried about future supply, and make prices increase.
    Feb 2, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Is A Strong Buy For All The Right Reasons [View article]
    COP didn't fall as much as the oil price because it's so large. Small companies fell much more than the oil price (some losing 80% of their share price).
    COP's future earnings may be helped by the fall in oil prices if it goes back over $70/bbl in the next year or two, and reduces the number of smaller companies competing with them.
    Feb 2, 2015. 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Prices Do Not Benefit The Economy [View article]
    Like it or not, this guy has a great point at the end of the article about the shale oil wells. If the Saudis can drive them out of business, they may never come back online, and that would be a net negative for our economy.
    Jan 19, 2015. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap Oil Prices Do Not Benefit The Economy [View article]
    The one guy in the oil industry who commented had it right. He knew that the small countries that depend on oil will just pump more and more as the price goes down, "hastening their own demise".
    Jan 19, 2015. 09:53 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Estimates Are Getting Frothy, Caution May Be Warranted [View article]
    Pete, I agree, I just don't know whether or not that growth is already priced in. Companies like this are extremely hard to put a price on because basically all their value is in their potential.
    Mar 24, 2014. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba Estimates Are Getting Frothy, Caution May Be Warranted [View article]
    I've used Alibaba and Aliexpress several times and am planning on getting a subscription and using it much more. I have no idea as to its valuation, but I will say that if the economy keeps improving at a reasonable rate, I think it could have absolutely huge potential, if it improves its customer experience substantially. It's an absolutely amazing service that is terribly implemented. If the site worked as well as Amazon, it would be worth even more because it could become basically a global, direct-from-manufacturer Amazon. As of right now, relatively few people in the English-speaking world actually know of and use it, with the introduction of AliExpress, it's becoming more widely adopted.
    Mar 24, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magic Trees: The Performance Of Equities Vs. Commodities [View article]
    "Magic trees"? Sounds like what the Fed smokes to come up with its policies.
    May 9, 2013. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not So Fast On The Deflation Talk [View article]
    Re: your first point, one reason I feel reasonably confident that precious metals are in a correction rather than a crash: nobody will sell me their damn silver or gold! I sold a bunch of paper precious metals back in the fall. During the recent price mini-collapse, I wanted to buy some physical. People were asking $35 for one-ounce silver rounds, and I literally couldn't find any gold that anyone would sell me (I don't have that many shops near me, but still).
    Also, I don't envy your job in times like this, I'm sure a lot of people get cold feet when they see this sort of correction. Me, I'm sort of the opposite; I like it when decisive moves happen because it means buying opportunities one way or another. When nothing happens for a while, then I get concerned because I wonder what is brewing.
    Apr 26, 2013. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyprus Lifts The Curtain [View article]
    The interesting irony is that their plan was to tax anything less than 100,000 in the bank at 6.75%, anything over at 10%. So the wealthier depositors would be paying more.

    Now, the average European saver who knows nothing of the financial system, is going to suffer a devalued Euro, while those with money or more acumen will protect themselves with foreign accounts.
    Mar 22, 2013. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    Good points. If I may rephrase the third mass delusion:

    "The current bond bubble is caused by the mass delusion that any one central bank has ultimate power over either the economy or money supply of a globalized nation."

    Meaning, the delusion is not one of a central bank or stimulus policies being infallible, but rather that a bank can truly understand or predict the impact of its policies when any nation's economy and financial system are so dependent on what happens elsewhere in the world.
    Mar 22, 2013. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is 3D Printing A Huge Bubble? [View article]
    I think most people would have to see a 3D printer work to actually appreciate what its potential is. I have a hard time imagining what most people would use a 3D printer for, but after having seen them work, and samples of what they can produce, I have no doubt that there are millions of applications that the average person could think of.
    I recently saw a man replicate an entire working model of the Antikythera mechanism using a CAD program and a 3D printer. It was absolutely amazing that we have that technology in our homes today.
    Feb 19, 2013. 04:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment - Further Detail [View article]
    What's interesting about the first chart is that deficits seem to be leading indicators of increasing employment, which is what those in favor of more spending always point to.
    But if we look at the length of the entire chart - the deficit must keep marching ever higher just to keep employment gradually dropping lower. At this rate, how high must the third "step" in the deficit be in order to lessen the third drop in employment?
    Feb 1, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning The Wrong Lessons [View article]
    Not sure if you format them yourself, but your tables might be a little easier to read if you put the "cellpadding" attribute in them.

    < table border="1" cellpadding="10" >

    a value of "10" keeps everything ten pixels off the border.
    Jan 23, 2013. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Baby Steps Aren't Worth The Angst [View article]
    In short, if QE ends, then we have bond yields and interest rates rising while the money supply dries up. Isn't this AKA "stagflation"?

    Also, can anybody imagine QE actually ending, and does Obama having a second term make it more or less likely? I mean, he doesn't have to worry about getting reelected if ending QE tanks the economy, but on the other hand if stagflation takes hold near the end of his term, he doesn't have to worry about getting reelected then either.
    Dec 4, 2012. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gravity Of The European Situation [View article]
    What if you instablogged "daily inflation notes" in which you write one very concise piece every day (like a link or image plus one paragraph), then listed and expanded on them in a "weekly inflation update" article?
    Just a thought. Keep up the good work.
    Nov 29, 2012. 10:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment