Is Google Worth That Much More Than Microsoft? [View article]
Good point, good article Bee, I saw that brushed up on very lightly.
Dano, my only point is if companies are using MSFT patents to make smartphones and tablets, it's not exactly like MSFT does not have the engineers, talent, etc, but they clearly lacked the mobile vision.
They have the tools in the shed, just no light at the end of the tunnel.
Cash position is very attractive and gives the company a very very long time. Dividend yields more than government debt with the same credit rating. Personally, Ballmer maybe have been selected because he is a business man rather than a visionary. Although the company missed out on mobile the business, msft continues to increase cashflow
Is Google Worth That Much More Than Microsoft? [View article]
Stating MSFT missed the mobile boat is overlooking royalties. MSFT gets paid on 70% of all android sales due to patent royalties. Actually rougly 9 billion in royalties by 2017, a couple billion a year.
MSFT has the technology, they just lack the leadership. Stock could pop with an unlikely Balmer departure.
Amazon's Margins Take Another Hit As Sales Growth Slows Down [View article]
With margins being pressured some have to ask if AMZN will ever get WMT margins. I think the answer is no.
Yes AMZN will still grow and dominate retail, but the current market cap is half the size of WMT already. Given there are many signs that Prime delivery is not as efficient as big box stores outside of electronics, low margin items like $5 trash cans, can not compete with a Wal-mart from a top down macro view. Now that the tax break is gone in most markets, the %10 discount AMZN offers is over.
If amazon continues to dominate retail they must either take a margin haircut given 2-day shipping has higher costs associated than a big box wal-mart on a per-item basis. Or raise prices. If they take a margin haircut they are going to have to have a much bigger top line to ensure the same bottom line as competitors. If they raise prices, demand decreases, growth slows further. Catch 22
Really priced for perfection at 100+ billion dollars.
Consolidation would be bullish as the 50 day is falling precipitously. DDD has not held any rally since the beginning of the year, except most recently when it hit the 200 day.
ExOne announced today they will achieve margins of DDD/SSYS in a few years. As competition enters are margins threatened? ECON 101 would tell us yes.
I still say technicals are very neutral to bearish. I'd predict we form a wedge with the 200 day acting as the support and the 50 day as resistance. The insane short interest is the wild card however. If we get another market rally like today, I guarantee you the shorts are going to be running to the exit.
I'm in the other camp on the technical side. Since last quarters earnings release the chart has formed a descending triangle. Remember we were at these very levels after the earnings release.
On the fundamental side, many say we are in a bubble. i.e. supply has outpaced demand. This stock is still up 200% over the past 18 months even after the pull back, and if the 3d printing model has not hit an inflection point the move is not warranted. If we are not getting substantial growth than a forward GAAP PE of over 40 is absurdly expensive.
The discrepency between gaap and non-gaap numbers is a yellow flag too in my opinion. Acquisitions have clearly helped non-gaap numbers while gaap numbers struggle to keep pace. I think one has to use GAAP numbers with DDD given the way they account for acquisitions.
The growth numbers you provide are almost entirely tied to acquisitions. Once the acquisitions stop does the growth stop?
Dunkin' Donuts: Are All The Analysts In Florida? [View article]
We have seen that these companies actually tend to act like consumer staples in economic downturns. MCD did fine in 2007, 2008, and 2009. With a lower arpu than SBUX, one could argue DNKN is the MCD of the morning coffee/pastry space.
$4 breakfast is likely one of the last things to be be cut from discretionary spending.
Short Sellers Are Covering 3 Stocks Undervalued By EPS Trends And Cash Flow [View article]
hasn't the fed been saying that for 4 years? Stocks are still cheap compared to alternatives. Are you going to put your money in US debt and get paid less than 2%, or MCD, which has a better balance sheet and pays you 3% to wait.
Cyprus' economy is smaller than vermont's (the nations smallest state per GDP). You have to be joking?
NFLX is not as expensive when looking at cashflow. Depreciation/Amortization are hurting earnings as company invests in foreign markets, but the cash flow is still there, regular consistent cash flow....
On top of that, when NFLX makes claims like 4K will be developed on their streaming services before optical discs, I think it becomes clear that streaming is far more cost effective/effecient than optical hardware for the producers and for that matter likely the consumers.
VIX is a difficult vehicle to trade meaning the VIX is consumed with sophisticated investors who are telling you to sell volitality, atleast that's what the VIX chart is telling me. With so much trouble in Europe and Asia, wouldn't there be a flight to quality? i.e I flight to US denominated securities. i.e. Dollars and SPYs. S&P yields > T-notes
3D Systems' Earnings Looked Good To The Shorts [View article]
Your forward PEG is below the above market stated and you are making valuation call or a technical call? Perhaps slightly overvalued, but not bad for a company that just had a 50% year with >30% upside guidance.
The technology enables micro-manufacturing, now anyone can be a manufacturer with far less capital. Even your anticipated market could be potentially very large. 'Repair parts' like auto mechanics? Jewler's have been using them for years.
Computers were invented long before they were heavily commercialized as well. The cost/benefit has not been in favor of 3d printing thus far, but if we ever had an inflection point the market is potentially very large.
Is Google Worth That Much More Than Microsoft? [View article]
Dano, my only point is if companies are using MSFT patents to make smartphones and tablets, it's not exactly like MSFT does not have the engineers, talent, etc, but they clearly lacked the mobile vision.
They have the tools in the shed, just no light at the end of the tunnel.
Cash position is very attractive and gives the company a very very long time. Dividend yields more than government debt with the same credit rating. Personally, Ballmer maybe have been selected because he is a business man rather than a visionary. Although the company missed out on mobile the business, msft continues to increase cashflow
Is Google Worth That Much More Than Microsoft? [View article]
MSFT has the technology, they just lack the leadership. Stock could pop with an unlikely Balmer departure.
Is Google Worth That Much More Than Microsoft? [View article]
Buy GOOG and MSFT
Amazon's Margins Take Another Hit As Sales Growth Slows Down [View article]
Amazon's Margins Take Another Hit As Sales Growth Slows Down [View article]
Yes AMZN will still grow and dominate retail, but the current market cap is half the size of WMT already. Given there are many signs that Prime delivery is not as efficient as big box stores outside of electronics, low margin items like $5 trash cans, can not compete with a Wal-mart from a top down macro view. Now that the tax break is gone in most markets, the %10 discount AMZN offers is over.
If amazon continues to dominate retail they must either take a margin haircut given 2-day shipping has higher costs associated than a big box wal-mart on a per-item basis. Or raise prices. If they take a margin haircut they are going to have to have a much bigger top line to ensure the same bottom line as competitors. If they raise prices, demand decreases, growth slows further. Catch 22
Really priced for perfection at 100+ billion dollars.
It's Time To Go Long In 3D Systems [View article]
ExOne announced today they will achieve margins of DDD/SSYS in a few years. As competition enters are margins threatened? ECON 101 would tell us yes.
I still say technicals are very neutral to bearish. I'd predict we form a wedge with the 200 day acting as the support and the 50 day as resistance. The insane short interest is the wild card however. If we get another market rally like today, I guarantee you the shorts are going to be running to the exit.
It's Time To Go Long In 3D Systems [View article]
It's Time To Go Long In 3D Systems [View article]
I like the technology for the future, but right now this one just makes me too nervous.
It's Time To Go Long In 3D Systems [View article]
On the fundamental side, many say we are in a bubble. i.e. supply has outpaced demand. This stock is still up 200% over the past 18 months even after the pull back, and if the 3d printing model has not hit an inflection point the move is not warranted. If we are not getting substantial growth than a forward GAAP PE of over 40 is absurdly expensive.
The discrepency between gaap and non-gaap numbers is a yellow flag too in my opinion. Acquisitions have clearly helped non-gaap numbers while gaap numbers struggle to keep pace. I think one has to use GAAP numbers with DDD given the way they account for acquisitions.
The growth numbers you provide are almost entirely tied to acquisitions. Once the acquisitions stop does the growth stop?
Dunkin' Donuts: Are All The Analysts In Florida? [View article]
$4 breakfast is likely one of the last things to be be cut from discretionary spending.
Dunkin' Donuts: Are All The Analysts In Florida? [View article]
Wasn't DNKN a PE holding being consolidated in 2010 and most of 2011?
Dunkin' Donuts: Are All The Analysts In Florida? [View article]
Short Sellers Are Covering 3 Stocks Undervalued By EPS Trends And Cash Flow [View article]
Cyprus' economy is smaller than vermont's (the nations smallest state per GDP). You have to be joking?
NFLX is not as expensive when looking at cashflow. Depreciation/Amortization are hurting earnings as company invests in foreign markets, but the cash flow is still there, regular consistent cash flow....
On top of that, when NFLX makes claims like 4K will be developed on their streaming services before optical discs, I think it becomes clear that streaming is far more cost effective/effecient than optical hardware for the producers and for that matter likely the consumers.
VIX is a difficult vehicle to trade meaning the VIX is consumed with sophisticated investors who are telling you to sell volitality, atleast that's what the VIX chart is telling me. With so much trouble in Europe and Asia, wouldn't there be a flight to quality? i.e I flight to US denominated securities. i.e. Dollars and SPYs. S&P yields > T-notes
Neutral on NFLX, long TTWO
3D Systems' Earnings Looked Good To The Shorts [View article]
DDD's sector is industrial goods and it's industry is diversified machinery
3D Systems' Earnings Looked Good To The Shorts [View article]
The technology enables micro-manufacturing, now anyone can be a manufacturer with far less capital. Even your anticipated market could be potentially very large. 'Repair parts' like auto mechanics? Jewler's have been using them for years.
Computers were invented long before they were heavily commercialized as well. The cost/benefit has not been in favor of 3d printing thus far, but if we ever had an inflection point the market is potentially very large.