gordontravels

On Oil Prices and Barron's Bullishness

The Office of Management and Budget (now run by the Democrats) says the Stimulus Spending won't create sustainable jobs and most of it won't be spent until after 2010 so what happened to "if we don't act now?"?

As for creating infrastructure jobs they will be temporary and will be seen that way so they will eventually go away; not sustainable. How will the creation of infrastructure jobs help auto workers, financial employees, brokers, real estate agents and reps, chemical workers and so many other people that aren't shovel ready. Will they be the one holding the stop sign.

There will have to be training if these hundreds of thousands that have been let go are to work on the bridges, highways and school buildings. Has anyone figured that in or will there just be a line of shovel ready applicants applying for the temporary jobs.

Chuck Schumer, Senator from New York said today that the American people don't care about "the tiny porky things" in the Stimulus Spending Plan.

I do. Each and every dollar should go to true stimulus but even at that... 790 Billion is about 1/5 of what it will take to bring us to the surface.

The Stimulus Plan... an opportunity missed.

Why a Spending Bill Just Won't Cut It

I notice that some here place their arguments for and against on economics. One says the best economists are on this along with the President. I believe that. However... the President didn't write this bill.

Nearly 700 pages. Original written by the Democrats in the House with Nancy Pelosi saying, "We won the election, we will write the bill". Not one Republicans voting for the House version and although I'm not a Democrat or Republican but Non-Partisan I have to believe that this side thinks this will do it and that side thinks it won't. I don't see these people as good vs. evil but rather many people that really don't have the expertise to deal with the economy unless they listen to someone that thinks they know... maybe from a partisan view i.e. political.

Now we have a bill with maybe a few more changes to come. Why changes? If this doesn't work it is a Democrat Bill signed by a Democrat President. I have no doubt at all... we will need more stimulus plans. The people have spoken and they don't like what's going on so... imagine if this doesn't work. Where will support be when the next "catastrophe stopping" bill comes up? The President is roughly at 65% yay with the people now. What about then?

Katy is right. I say:

Pay off the states deficits and let them know with that clean slate... NO MORE.

Yes I'm sorry but shore up our financial institutions because we need them to survive.

Give the American Worker a year off from payroll tax.

Give the in trouble home owners one year off from mortgage payments and tack it on at the end of the mortgage.

If you want to use the word "spend"? Spend on job creation for jobs that will produce and last beyond the handout. Each and every dollar.

OH AND... maybe some strict oversight? Ok, Ok... check in now and then.

On Oil Prices and Barron's Bullishness

Yes the cost/price/value/suppl... of oil goes up and down and we all know we can depend on it whether a matter of a day's change, a solid up down move over a few months or those long waiting to see what they think they know. I'll just post a theory:

It is late 2010 and Russia has joined OPEC. The much anticipated meeting to see how much the cartel will cut is today. analysts have already decided another 2 1/2 million barrels are going down and OPEC has been rather glued together since late 2008 so all the anticipation is built in.

Oh... here comes Mr. Petro Mouth to the microphones... let's listen in.

"Gentlemen and ladies", he pauses for effect... "The members of OPEC have reached an acceptable conclusion based on the best interests of our citizens and what we believe is fair to the World Markets; those in the markets that benefit from our product."

A hushed silence. "It is the decision of OPEC now looking at the price per barrel of petroleum at $38.76 that we must do something about the supply and our losses for the last 3 years." The crowd is dead silent.

"Therefore, we are in complete agreement, each and every member that production output will be raised by 2 million barrels per day starting January 15th and that increase in output will come from our most needy members." A murmer flows over the crowd.

"We have also decided that the price for a barrel of oil will now be controlled by our members within and in accordance with the Cartel's wishes of not only the majority but all members here today in complete agreement." Another hush falls on those assembled.

"Therefore, as of January 15th, the price of a barrel of oil coming out from any member nation of OPEC will be priced at $78.00 a barrel."

And the rush for the doors ensues.

Why 17 ETFs Are Closing up Shop

I second that... please name all 17.

New Inventory High at the Silver ETF

So are you saying buy?

Bullish Signs from Oil

I say if you are bullish on oil then consider DXO. It closed today at 2.68 up 5.01%. If you are bullish on oil pushing up natural gas then consider EWC holding natural gas, gold and financials in Canada. If Canada does their proposed 50 Billion stimulus financials should move as ours and our stimulus will even help theirs. Seems to be near lows here too. I'll just say I hold them

Short Ideas: Lloyds and U.S. Bank Stocks

Available home inventories are killing the building industry. I'd like to see the government do two things:

1. Create a National Bank to take all the bad debt. Scary? At least the total would be apparent and over time could be dealt with instead of our piece meal approach.

2. Don't give willy nilly Stimulus to states so they can spend it on infrastructure. That is estimated to be approximately 90 plus Billion. Instead give them 48 Billion divided into the budget deficits they are running. Force them to pay off the deficit and have a clean slate and... no more money. States would have to live within their means. Are you listening California?


On Jan 22 07:53 AM Ishortyou wrote:

> if you want your economic miracle get rid off the 18 months oversupply
> in housing inventories and the 600K+ new house starts and voula there
> you have your miracle.

Five Reasons to Invest in Canada

I think it's wise to consider who else uses oil. Some of the largest countries in population want the life we in the states and Canada have. Dow Chemical produces over 30,000 products and need oil. Each and every machine needs oil and fuel.

What is stopping OPEC and Russia from discontinuing market prices and simply setting prices? Even poor Venezuela under the Socialist has priced their economy at $60 a barrel. Mexico's largest field is sucking in salt water and production has declined over the past few years to near 1 million barrels a day and they will become a net importer of oil in less than 5 years. Many major fields around the world are now in decline and injection technology is expensive. Then there's war.

I don't mind riding a horse but it won't be necessary even though I live out in the country. The high prices we just experienced taught many to conserve and the drop in price hasn't turned that around... yet. The U.S. is using 2% less gasoline now than it was this time last year. Oil is being held and refinery capacity is static. One slip and prices go up. Gasoline here was 1.499 a gallon last month. It is now 1.75. The industry will survive and even with alternative energy....

You buy 100 barrels of oil at $40 a barrel. You cut your use and buy 50 barrels and the price is $80 a barrel. What is to stop this from happening?

If the taxes go up in Canada then I would surely look for something that wouldn't eat into my profits. Canada may soon open a stimulus package said to be $50 Billion which is 10% of their GDP. Much less than the U.S. and under a conservative government.

Although I don't consider myself happy to invest in a Socialist Nation I think the opportunities in Canada are good and maybe in the short term or mid... as for the long term... that takes more time to see.