Greyowl

Is it possible we're still not angry enough at the banks?

Anger is unproductive, especially at the banks.

The bad part of the U.S. employment situation, as we well know, are the droves of unemployed looking for jobs in a market where almost no one's hiring. The good part is that those that have jobs continue to enjoy pay increases almost as big as during the late 1990s boom.

Actually, there was a pay raise for a lot of employees, which is usually not taken into account - increase in costs of medical insurance.

Most employers do not pass yearly increases to employees, but in reality it is part of their compensation. And, recession or not, it goes up, up...

Intraday Selloff Hits Financials, Materials Hardest

Sorry, I didn't mention he suggested to buy FXI on August 25, 2008.

He also suggested to buy Russian ETF RSX on August 21, 2008. Again, it never went up but only down, losing 75% vs 42% in SPY at the same period.

So, you see he repeats the same advice over and over again, regardless. And sometimes it works...

Intraday Selloff Hits Financials, Materials Hardest

Well, he's been suggesting to buy emerging markets for quite a while - for example, he suggested to buy China (FXI) in his article on August 25. FXI was around $42, higher than now. Let me remind you that FXI went almost immediately down 53%.

You'd lose more money with him as SPY lost 35% at the same time.


On Sep 01 04:15 PM Danny Furman wrote:

> Actually he, and many others who think stocks are now overpriced,
> advocated buying growing emerging markets in March. After gains of
> 100% across the board, those markets became expensive. They have
> tanked progressively, starting with the worst economies (Russia then
> India then Brazil then China). It's our turn now, and we never had
> anything to justify the 50% run in the first place.

Intraday Selloff Hits Financials, Materials Hardest

With all due respect...

Sure, the market hit a snag, correction, whatever.

But you have been consistently advising to stay away from stocks from April (or even March according to this comment? I remember only April's and later comments) causing your clients and people who listened to lose money when others (including me) were making good profits.

A broken clock is right twice a day... Or a year?

If I in my profession was making such bad advices, I would stay low and tried to learn from my mistakes.

I guess it is not true for finance professionals.

That's why they got us into this mess in the first place. And they do not admit that.

On Sep 01 02:13 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> hjj. US stocks are now the most expensive they have been in seven
> years, and never really got cheap during the March low, just fairly
> valued. At least I have some good company in my views, which are
> also shared by David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, the former chief
> equity strategist at the late Merrill Lynch. The “faith based” rally
> is now discounting a GDP growth rate of 4.0%, which has a snowball’s
> chance in Hell of actually occurring. This is up dramatically from
> the 2.5% growth rate the S&P 500 was discounting when the index
> was at 667. The best stock market rally since 1933 added an unprecedented
> eight PE multiple points to stocks, and there is now more risk in
> the market than the 2007 peak. Underweight portfolio managers and
> momentum driven day traders are to blame. It’s what happened after
> the 1933 rally that scares me. Needless to say, stocks offer no value
> here. You can sign up for David’s well thought out research for free
> by going to his website at www.gluskinsheff.com/.

Closing Update for Monday, August 31: Trimming August Gains

I recently sold my stocks when the sentiment on SA turned more bullish than bearish.

Now it looks it turned bearish ... as it was in March, April, May and most of the summer when the market was going up.

I guess I need to start going long again. ;-)

How long before we follow Shanghai off the cliff?

The funny part is that, according to the chart, we have around half a year before the dive (compare the last peak of S&P before precipitous dall vs. Shanghai plus they started climbing out of the bottom several months earlier too).

So, the chart points out at several months of further gains? Wow! Even the bulls do not anticipate that... :-)

In a 5,000 word article a week ago, NY Times said indie movie company Weinstein Co. was in dire need of a hit after a string of failures. They may have gotten it with Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds, which opened this week at #1 with $37.6M in sales. Rounding out the top four: Sony's (SNE) District 9 ($18.9M); Paramount's (VIA) G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($12.5M); and Warner's (TWX) The Time Traveler’s Wife ($10M).

Tarantino rules!!!

Today May Be Markets' Turning Point

Critisism?

The surest way to get a nod, if not a praise, on SA is to write a bearish article.

All bullish articles and comments (regardless of the writer's experience) get pummelled despite the fact that the market goes up, up, up...

How Will a Sustained Recovery Be Possible?

Hmmm...

FYI, I do not know the latest statistics, but AFAIK in China not "most Chinese workers", but roughly 10% (around 120 mln) are engaged in manufacturing, while in US it is around 5% (or 12-14 mln).

Considering that productivity of the average American worker is several times higher than the Chinese, manufacturing output in US is lower, but still comparable to that of China.

The difference is that American manufacturing produces Boings and Chinese - much less knowledge-intensive products. If it's something sophisticated, most parts are imported to China for assembly.

"Most Chinese" are in agriculture. Despite that fact, China imports huge amounts of food while US exports.

I think the reason Americans do not trust their government and do not belive that America will drive the recovery is that they do not know much about other governments and economies, their corruption, inefficiencies etc.

The fact is, believe it or not, America has still the most competitive economy despite all your proofs to otherwise.

Commerce Department's Revised GDP Shows a Delineated Story for the Recession

I am going long for one, making wonderful profits.

If you read mostly bearish comments on SA, do not assume that there are no buyers. They are not commenting that much, they are busy making money. ;-)

On Aug 03 01:22 PM ecoco wrote:

> Fundamentally it looks bad
>
> Technically it looks good
>
> No one dares to go Short
> No one dares to go Long
>
> No cash with consumers or retail investors
>
> I wonder who is doing the trading and lifting these markets up. Is
> it another case of irrational exuberance, but initiated by the BIG
> boys using free government money??

Closing Update for Thursday, July 30: Firming Up

The comments at SA have been bearish, but for the first time the first bearish comment got significant negative score.

I have used SA bearish sentiment as a contrarian signal and it worked well so far. If it turns bullish, should I start selling and shorting?

The China 'Bubble': Buy, Sell, Or Hold?

To Manya05&Freya:

There is not much of natural resources in China, compared to the needs of its economy even now. Coal, iron, some oil - not enough even today.

Demographics? Because of one-child policy the population is greying fast. For demographics, go to India or elsewhere.


On Jul 28 06:56 AM manya05 wrote:


> Let me throw a few pointers: demographics, natural
> resources, upside growth potential in consumption, clean sheet of
> paper to start with new technologies that make sense in the XXI century
> instead of the XX...and I can go on and on.
>
> I am as disgusted as the next guy to see the emergence of recycled
> communist minions or former union leaders as the born-again capitalists
> that will usher the new economy. But as they say, "Don't fight the
> Fed," I say "Don't fight the trend."
>
> I don't think there is a bubble here, you are just watching the Great
> Restructuring (and that includes capital flows).

Follow the Money: EuroDollar at Critical Juncture

Interesting thoughts on the cash flows and risk taking when analyzing currencies, but then you went too much into technical details about the currencies themselves rather than their correlation with the market.

Honestly, systemic analysis of the cash flows in combination with technical analysis of the equities market makes more sense than only the latter.

So, when you "Follow the money" (I guess you can consideryour charts as the leading indicators), how soon you expect the equities market to respond?

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Hmmm... I expected that the market would go down on MSFT and AMZN news and then resume going up. I just thought reversing correction to happen not on Friday, but Monday-Tuesday.

But it happened sooner to my delight.

The market is expecting recovery ahead of time. And despite dismal revenues, it seems the economy is starting to turn around and in 6 months the news may well be much better.

Add to this trickling money from the sidelines (no, no avalanche yet, but it may happen) and you've got the current rally.

Does it have legs? I don't know, but it may go up further, to 1015-1050. Maybe not in one jump, but within weeks.

Sure, correction is possible, but most probably it will no "new lows", but it will meet resistance at 920-950 and bounce.

Of course. this is my perception, but so far it worked perfectly. I may be wrong on the next turn