Richard Shaw

http://www.qvmgroup.com/invest

195 Comments

    • 31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
      Arao:

      First, point is that the data is now completely out of date due to intervening circumstances, and is of little use at this time.

      Second, I have asked the data vendor, Thomson Analytics, a similar question. The simple answer is nobody knows, because they simply aggregate published numbers from the many investment research houses they survey.

      There is no defined standard for earnings projections. The methods may vary by source. Bad as it is, it's the best one can get in terms of broad survey data.       Oct 08 06:35 PM
    • S&P 500 Price Growth: 1927-Aug 2008 [view article]
      Pelican:

      You can find additional information about the performance of SP500 over 5 and 10 year periods in a follow-up article to this one at
      www.qvmgroup.com/inves...       Oct 06 01:17 AM
    • S&P 500 Price Growth: 1927-Aug 2008 [view article]
      The Hand:

      OK, to be specific, starting from 08/31/90 (to match end end date of the overall data and to create an even 18 year history) would project the current market to be between 653 and 1090 with a 4% to 7% constant growth from 1990; and out five years more to 2013 projects an SP500 index of between 795 and 1529 with a 4% to 7% constant growth rate from 1990.       Oct 05 09:32 AM
    • 31 Country P/E and PEG Ratios [view article]
      ajelovsek:

      Those are the numbers as reported by Thompson One Analytics. They simply aggregate the data from the reporting investment analysis houses. Those are not my estimates. They are my report to you of published numbers.       Oct 04 04:24 PM
    • EV to EBITDA US Stock Screen [view article]
      Mikegavone:

      None of which I am aware. The research was done internally.       Oct 03 09:37 AM
    • Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
      Dr. Divergence:

      This is uncharted territory. Closest example may be the INP exhange traded note from Barclays that stopped issuing creation units when India temporarily stopped certain foreign investments. That went way out of wack.

      In this case the instruments used to fund the inverse fund are most likely of definite term, except for their actual stock shorts. The derivatives will expire and the fund will become less short. Until the next report, we won't know how many if any actual stock shorts they have.

      Absent actual stock shorts the fund assets will be in run-off and would eventually be all cash or government debt instruments. In a rational world, the price would approach the NAV in that case.

      The expectations for future actions by Congress would probably be key, but I have no idea what those actions would be or how the market would respond.

      Today when the bailout vote failed the SPY was off nearly 7%.

      SKF is up 18+% as of the moment with nearly 16 million volume. XLF is down 11+% with 52 million volume, so the 2x leverage is approximately working for the moment.       Sep 29 02:17 PM
    • Short Cut to Profits? A Closer Look at Inverse Funds [view article]
      Dr Divergence

      I said it "exposes" short investor to interest. That is meant to convey that interest "could" be a factor if the trade goes against the investor to create a margin call.

      The point is correct about the "potential" for interest cost, which is not a potential cost with a non-margined long position in an inverse fund.       Sep 29 01:21 PM
    • An ETN Primer: Buyer Beware of Even Good Credit Ratings [view article]
      User 202460

      Thank you for the kind words. Glad to be of some help.       Sep 18 10:38 PM
    • Avoid Broken Buck Syndrome with Treasuries Money Market Funds [view article]
      dir

      Good point. The Schwab fund is a sweep account. It can be the core cash account and there it automatically sweeps in all cash and pays out to settle as needed.

      I must correct myself. The Schwab prospectus only requires 80% Treasuries, but the actual holdings are 100% Treasuries with maturity dates less than 12 months as of the most recent published portfolio listing.       Sep 18 05:39 PM
    • Avoid Broken Buck Syndrome with Treasuries Money Market Funds [view article]
      Y.I.

      Those are not money market funds and their value fluctuate. They do not provide the safe harbor of a Treasury Bills money fund.       Sep 18 05:24 PM
    • An ETN Primer: Buyer Beware of Even Good Credit Ratings [view article]
      puttster

      The answer to your question is discussed in depth on my blog at
      www.qvmgroup.com/inves...       Sep 17 11:00 AM
    • 49 Stocks For Buffett Fans [view article]
      Owen,

      I certainly agree with your criticism of the list of 49 stocks generated by Business Week. My only task was to reduce that list down to those stocks (Buffet-like or not) down to those that are also currently recommended by S&P and ValueLine.

      The article title chosen by Seeking Alpha may suggest that we believe Buffet would want these companies, but that is not the case.

      Thanks.       Sep 15 05:30 PM
    • Whither Oil Prices? [view article]
      Kebu77

      The 1.26% may or may not be cute, but it is not made up. That is the rate at which crude increased per month form the beginning of the data period in the 1990's through the end of the data period. the analysis is to extend that growth rate to see where it goes. the high line is simple extrapolation of the historical curve. the low line, I will, grant begins at an arbitrary point, but one that makes sense to us (9/11), using the longer term historical growth rate. there is no right or wrong in extrapolation, only potential interest. it means something to some and not to others. it's just one more piece of information in a larger assemblage of information seeking insight.       Sep 09 05:45 PM
    • Whither Oil Prices? [view article]
      gigem77 --

      the TOT and PBR figures you cite sound like pretty good floor numbers on oil prices (excluding any temporary spike down that could, but probably will not occur). the major oil companies will not provide the market with oil below their replacement cost, and those with low costs in OPEC have no current incentive to take it lower. the long-term forces are up.

       Sep 07 05:20 PM
    • 49 Stocks For Buffett Fans [view article]
      Jeff -- note that it was Business Week magazine that selected the list of 49 stocks as Buffet-like. We just filtered the list further in terms of S&P and ValueLine opinions as to general appeal. Certainly, Buffet uses criteria and judgement in his selections that a simple 5 attribute screen cannot capture. Our intent was merely to help those who read the Business Week article by letting them know more about the stocks in the list, but not to judge the realism of Business Week's construction of the list. Sep 07 12:52 PM
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