QVM Group's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/34064/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/130270-emerging-markets-lead-global-rally?source=feed#comment-458640 458640 Fri, 10 Apr 2009 08:38:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129982-tough-times-for-dividend-investors?source=feed#comment-455504 455504 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:37:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126006-will-china-s-ideological-crisis-overwhelm-stimulus-spending?source=feed#comment-426381 426381
Here is a link to a Foreign Affairs Council article with a supportive theme:

www.foreignaffairs.com...

From the cited article:

Summary --

The financial crisis is challenging Beijing's ability to hold up its end of the deal with the country's elite, leading to a potential threat to the continued rule of the Chinese Communist Party.


]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:47:14 -0400
Here is a link to a Foreign Affairs Council article with a supportive theme:

www.foreignaffairs.com...

From the cited article:

Summary --

The financial crisis is challenging Beijing's ability to hold up its end of the deal with the country's elite, leading to a potential threat to the continued rule of the Chinese Communist Party.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125951-it-s-a-winter-warming-spell-but-more-snow-ahead-for-markets?source=feed#comment-425594 425594
Good point. Not sure how to quanitify that or if the overall effect of corporations moving offshore will be material, but it's a good point.

]]> Sat, 14 Mar 2009 11:16:33 -0400
Good point. Not sure how to quanitify that or if the overall effect of corporations moving offshore will be material, but it's a good point.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125951-it-s-a-winter-warming-spell-but-more-snow-ahead-for-markets?source=feed#comment-425589 425589
That is an easy "what if". If the index composition changes and the price move differently as a result, I would change my opinion accordingly. But so far neither has happened.]]> Sat, 14 Mar 2009 11:11:45 -0400
That is an easy "what if". If the index composition changes and the price move differently as a result, I would change my opinion accordingly. But so far neither has happened.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124800-option-selection-for-covered-call-writing?source=feed#comment-420521 420521
Yes, you can place stop order on written calls. You are not correct saying that you cannot sell the stock before the call, unless the investor does not have full options authority. Your are correct that selling the stock before the covered, would convert it to a naked call, but that is not prohibited in general, but it only prohibited for those investors without full options authority.]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:48:03 -0400
Yes, you can place stop order on written calls. You are not correct saying that you cannot sell the stock before the call, unless the investor does not have full options authority. Your are correct that selling the stock before the covered, would convert it to a naked call, but that is not prohibited in general, but it only prohibited for those investors without full options authority.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124800-option-selection-for-covered-call-writing?source=feed#comment-420517 420517
Yes you can sell the call before you sell the call if you have naked call writing authority. If you have a lower authority, you would be correct, you would not be correct for investors with full authorization. ]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:45:48 -0400
Yes you can sell the call before you sell the call if you have naked call writing authority. If you have a lower authority, you would be correct, you would not be correct for investors with full authorization. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124800-option-selection-for-covered-call-writing?source=feed#comment-419847 419847 Mon, 09 Mar 2009 18:46:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123498-stock-markets-likely-to-fall-further?source=feed#comment-409937 409937 600 S&P500 was my meaning]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 15:46:45 -0500 600 S&P500 was my meaning]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123498-stock-markets-likely-to-fall-further?source=feed#comment-409003 409003
Thanks for mentioning oil and copper, for example, which I have notice have begun to show some tendency to be flat or slightly rising as of late. However, it's too early to call a trend reversal in them. They may serve as leading indicators of corporate earnings improvements (short of an oil spike due to war of some catastrophe), because they would show increased demand for productive inputs. Input should tend to rise before the outputs convert to revenue and earnings.]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 08:27:52 -0500
Thanks for mentioning oil and copper, for example, which I have notice have begun to show some tendency to be flat or slightly rising as of late. However, it's too early to call a trend reversal in them. They may serve as leading indicators of corporate earnings improvements (short of an oil spike due to war of some catastrophe), because they would show increased demand for productive inputs. Input should tend to rise before the outputs convert to revenue and earnings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123273-siegel-vs-standard-poor-s?source=feed#comment-408776 408776
Worst case scenario is probably S&P 500 at 400. ]]> Mon, 02 Mar 2009 00:40:58 -0500
Worst case scenario is probably S&P 500 at 400. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123273-siegel-vs-standard-poor-s?source=feed#comment-407275 407275
P/E is important. The P/E today is too high. A low P/E and a falling price is not a good buy. A low or moderate P/E and a rising price is a good buy. That would be one point of the article, but there are others, such as the key topic, which is that S&P publishes reasonable, consistent and useful number, and Siegel does not publish historical data to support his claims. There are even more points, if you care to think about what you read.]]> Sat, 28 Feb 2009 18:18:16 -0500
P/E is important. The P/E today is too high. A low P/E and a falling price is not a good buy. A low or moderate P/E and a rising price is a good buy. That would be one point of the article, but there are others, such as the key topic, which is that S&P publishes reasonable, consistent and useful number, and Siegel does not publish historical data to support his claims. There are even more points, if you care to think about what you read.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123273-siegel-vs-standard-poor-s?source=feed#comment-406993 406993
Debate is useful and welcome. Declaring an argument to be "self-evidently right" is either a statement of faith or of arrogance, but it is not a logical argument. Only logical arguments are of use to readers. Perhaps you can share the reasons you find something "self-evidently right".

Richard Shaw]]> Sat, 28 Feb 2009 11:32:56 -0500
Debate is useful and welcome. Declaring an argument to be "self-evidently right" is either a statement of faith or of arrogance, but it is not a logical argument. Only logical arguments are of use to readers. Perhaps you can share the reasons you find something "self-evidently right".

Richard Shaw]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122656-jeremy-siegel-s-silly-p-e?source=feed#comment-405177 405177
]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 19:44:24 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122022-parallels-between-stock-and-real-estate-excess-valuation?source=feed#comment-400653 400653
Your point is interesting. We don't have to assume anything, but it could be useful to assume something. Given that return to mean is more probable than establishing a new mean, and given that the current level of housing appears to be unaffordable -- even before the crash (just look at all the communities worried about their children not being able to ever live in the town in which they live with parents due to high home prices).

You may be correct, but assuming that you are is no more valid than assuming you are not correct. In the context of asset deflation all around us and the better odds betting on mean reversion than a new paradigm, I would continue to be comfortable to say homes are overvalued, new space and technology standards or not. Regardless of culture, ability to make the purchase and leverage payments is always a limiting factor.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 18:35:33 -0500
Your point is interesting. We don't have to assume anything, but it could be useful to assume something. Given that return to mean is more probable than establishing a new mean, and given that the current level of housing appears to be unaffordable -- even before the crash (just look at all the communities worried about their children not being able to ever live in the town in which they live with parents due to high home prices).

You may be correct, but assuming that you are is no more valid than assuming you are not correct. In the context of asset deflation all around us and the better odds betting on mean reversion than a new paradigm, I would continue to be comfortable to say homes are overvalued, new space and technology standards or not. Regardless of culture, ability to make the purchase and leverage payments is always a limiting factor.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121748-12-s-p-500-stocks-with-bullish-character-in-a-bearish-realm?source=feed#comment-398271 398271 Sun, 22 Feb 2009 01:55:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121748-12-s-p-500-stocks-with-bullish-character-in-a-bearish-realm?source=feed#comment-397611 397611 Sat, 21 Feb 2009 09:28:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95900-an-etn-primer-buyer-beware-of-even-good-credit-ratings?source=feed#comment-390660 390660
Moody's provides credit ratings to registered users.]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 13:00:44 -0500
Moody's provides credit ratings to registered users.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119197-how-do-the-china-etfs-compare?source=feed#comment-383234 383234
If you are small, volume is less important, but you do want to use funds that have some volume all the time (check the minute charts to see if their is volume in each minute).

Limit order are OK for getting in, but if you use stops, when they are triggered they turn into market order to sell. If you use a stop/limit, and a low volume fund, you could find your stop fired, but your order never executed and the price fell and stayed below your limit.

I think good volume is always important.]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 22:21:55 -0500
If you are small, volume is less important, but you do want to use funds that have some volume all the time (check the minute charts to see if their is volume in each minute).

Limit order are OK for getting in, but if you use stops, when they are triggered they turn into market order to sell. If you use a stop/limit, and a low volume fund, you could find your stop fired, but your order never executed and the price fell and stayed below your limit.

I think good volume is always important.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119273-three-year-history-of-industrial-input-commodities?source=feed#comment-381303 381303
Yes, they are definitely working to build coal reserves and may well be doing similar things in private and public entities for other materials. It would seem to be a rational economic act to buy raw materials now at low prices, instead of Treasuries at low yields, if the cost of carry is perceived as less than the opportunity cost (or risk of capital loss in overbought Treasuries)]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:49:47 -0500
Yes, they are definitely working to build coal reserves and may well be doing similar things in private and public entities for other materials. It would seem to be a rational economic act to buy raw materials now at low prices, instead of Treasuries at low yields, if the cost of carry is perceived as less than the opportunity cost (or risk of capital loss in overbought Treasuries)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119335-the-real-crisis-collapsing-capital-accumulation-process?source=feed#comment-380822 380822
How all that might play out over a longer period of time in terms of winners and losers in stock markets is worthy of considerable thought.

Where the boundaries are between state protectionism and state recovery programs, and between state bailouts of distressed industries versus state funded competition will take decades to sort out. Who will be able to say when the lines have been crossed -- when recovery has occurred and continued state roles are anti-competitive instead of being crisis survival necessities.

In the meanwhile, plenty of international wrangling between governments and plenty of investment related implications may lie ahead for an extended period of years.]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 09:31:21 -0500
How all that might play out over a longer period of time in terms of winners and losers in stock markets is worthy of considerable thought.

Where the boundaries are between state protectionism and state recovery programs, and between state bailouts of distressed industries versus state funded competition will take decades to sort out. Who will be able to say when the lines have been crossed -- when recovery has occurred and continued state roles are anti-competitive instead of being crisis survival necessities.

In the meanwhile, plenty of international wrangling between governments and plenty of investment related implications may lie ahead for an extended period of years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119197-how-do-the-china-etfs-compare?source=feed#comment-380098 380098
I don't have a view to offer today on CAF.

It is a closed-end fund, and this article focused on ETFs (as the term is narrowly applied to mean those with creation unit functions to arbitrage away premiums and discounts that are characteristic of closed-end funds -- closed-end funds are also exchange traded funds, but are thought of differently than those called "ETFs").

CAF may well be a reasonable China investment, but I have not prepared a view on it at this time.]]> Sun, 08 Feb 2009 15:20:22 -0500
I don't have a view to offer today on CAF.

It is a closed-end fund, and this article focused on ETFs (as the term is narrowly applied to mean those with creation unit functions to arbitrage away premiums and discounts that are characteristic of closed-end funds -- closed-end funds are also exchange traded funds, but are thought of differently than those called "ETFs").

CAF may well be a reasonable China investment, but I have not prepared a view on it at this time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118954-emerging-markets-mind-the-timeframes-parse-the-headlines?source=feed#comment-378848 378848
You missed the point of the article. If you read it, rather than trashing it, you may see the point.]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:44:13 -0500
You missed the point of the article. If you read it, rather than trashing it, you may see the point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117990-relative-performance-of-bric-countries?source=feed#comment-373657 373657
Thanks but not dizzy here. In the revenue recognition cycle, purchase of inputs occurs before sale of products using those resources. The orders and movements for resources will precede the evidence of exported finished goods and investors are likely to recognize the resource exports first, without need to know which final products the inputs support.

I maintain my argument as stated. ]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 14:44:44 -0500
Thanks but not dizzy here. In the revenue recognition cycle, purchase of inputs occurs before sale of products using those resources. The orders and movements for resources will precede the evidence of exported finished goods and investors are likely to recognize the resource exports first, without need to know which final products the inputs support.

I maintain my argument as stated. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116399-what-are-you-being-paid-for-your-bonds?source=feed#comment-370174 370174
There are different types of bond yield, including "coupon", "current yield" (of which 30-day SEC yield is a standardized version for funds), "yield to maturity" and "distribution yield".

The coupon is merely the amount of money paid annually on the bond. The current yield is the coupon divided by price. The yield to maturity is the current yield, plus gains or losses as discounts or premiums vanish as the bond approaches maturity. The distribution yield is the trailing 12-month payments, which could include gains or even return of principal.

Yield-to-maturity is at a point in time. The SEC yield is a 30-day average.

You would probably find disagreement among advisors on which to use, however, I would probably use the yield to maturity, because it is more inclusive of value considerations that current yield, but I would not argue with anyone who thinks the SEC yield is a better measure.

Quoted rates on Treasuries assume the Treasury to be at par. The yield to maturity approach adjusts the yield back to a the equivalent of buying a bond at par. For that reason yield to maturity seems to make more sense to me.]]> Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:18:52 -0500
There are different types of bond yield, including "coupon", "current yield" (of which 30-day SEC yield is a standardized version for funds), "yield to maturity" and "distribution yield".

The coupon is merely the amount of money paid annually on the bond. The current yield is the coupon divided by price. The yield to maturity is the current yield, plus gains or losses as discounts or premiums vanish as the bond approaches maturity. The distribution yield is the trailing 12-month payments, which could include gains or even return of principal.

Yield-to-maturity is at a point in time. The SEC yield is a 30-day average.

You would probably find disagreement among advisors on which to use, however, I would probably use the yield to maturity, because it is more inclusive of value considerations that current yield, but I would not argue with anyone who thinks the SEC yield is a better measure.

Quoted rates on Treasuries assume the Treasury to be at par. The yield to maturity approach adjusts the yield back to a the equivalent of buying a bond at par. For that reason yield to maturity seems to make more sense to me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116996-stimulus-packages-conceptually-flawed-and-historically-unproven?source=feed#comment-368748 368748 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 12:30:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116399-what-are-you-being-paid-for-your-bonds?source=feed#comment-366798 366798
CA, NY, FL and TX are the states with the most weight in most muni portfolios. CA is the heaviest and CA is in the worst shape.

You can avoid CA by purchasing single state funds that are not CA which would have a similar tax level compared to a national muni fund, depending on where you live.

The issue perhaps not so much what states are in the portfolio, as how much of a fund is local as opposed to state bonds, and how much is revenue bonds versus GO bonds, and how much of the revenue bonds are for essential services (such as water and sewer) versus services that may fail economically (such as hospitals or parking lots).

There are furhter break-downs within GO's, and big city local bonds may be safer than small town local bonds, but maybe not.

Our view is that state level GO's and perhaps some large city GO's would be in the "too big to fail" category that has been used to bail out insurance companies, banks, and soon car companies. The devastation of a default by CA, for example, might be worse than the failure of Citi or AIG.]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 15:29:53 -0500
CA, NY, FL and TX are the states with the most weight in most muni portfolios. CA is the heaviest and CA is in the worst shape.

You can avoid CA by purchasing single state funds that are not CA which would have a similar tax level compared to a national muni fund, depending on where you live.

The issue perhaps not so much what states are in the portfolio, as how much of a fund is local as opposed to state bonds, and how much is revenue bonds versus GO bonds, and how much of the revenue bonds are for essential services (such as water and sewer) versus services that may fail economically (such as hospitals or parking lots).

There are furhter break-downs within GO's, and big city local bonds may be safer than small town local bonds, but maybe not.

Our view is that state level GO's and perhaps some large city GO's would be in the "too big to fail" category that has been used to bail out insurance companies, banks, and soon car companies. The devastation of a default by CA, for example, might be worse than the failure of Citi or AIG.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116397-the-bullish-case-for-u-s-stocks?source=feed#comment-366520 366520
good point. that was the topic of my Jan 8 article "Asset Allocation Diversification Didn't Work in 2008"

seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 11:17:10 -0500
good point. that was the topic of my Jan 8 article "Asset Allocation Diversification Didn't Work in 2008"

seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116306-an-end-to-the-era-of-declining-interest-rates?source=feed#comment-365567 365567
I did not say that rates will rise immediately. Of course, they are down now and likely to stay that way for months, and maybe years; but the multi-decade decline from the teen's to today's level cannot be repeated from here. Therefore, that kind of boost to the market cannot be repeated in future until rates have gone back to high levels, whenever that happens. If rates hover at these low levels and do not rise for some long time (e.g. the Japan model), there will still be the absence of the boost we had in the past due to declining rates.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 11:14:08 -0500
I did not say that rates will rise immediately. Of course, they are down now and likely to stay that way for months, and maybe years; but the multi-decade decline from the teen's to today's level cannot be repeated from here. Therefore, that kind of boost to the market cannot be repeated in future until rates have gone back to high levels, whenever that happens. If rates hover at these low levels and do not rise for some long time (e.g. the Japan model), there will still be the absence of the boost we had in the past due to declining rates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116306-an-end-to-the-era-of-declining-interest-rates?source=feed#comment-365494 365494
You have a good point, that rates may stay low for a long time. Whether rates stay low and flat or rise, the markets will not have the lift factor provided in the past due to years of declining rates. In addition, to rates not going down much, there is the prospect of less loan money available and more stringent lending standards. That would reduce the total level of leverage in the markets. Past leverage in combination with declining rates provided a boost to earnings and stock prices. That boost will probably be absent in the next few years or longer.]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 09:58:04 -0500
You have a good point, that rates may stay low for a long time. Whether rates stay low and flat or rise, the markets will not have the lift factor provided in the past due to years of declining rates. In addition, to rates not going down much, there is the prospect of less loan money available and more stringent lending standards. That would reduce the total level of leverage in the markets. Past leverage in combination with declining rates provided a boost to earnings and stock prices. That boost will probably be absent in the next few years or longer.]]>