QVM Group

Predicting Oil Prices Through Gold

paultaut:

The math certainly works in both directions -- either gold or oil price, or both changing, but gold may be a more universal and enduring representation of value. That is a judgement each individual investor must make. We think the other factors that suggest oil must rise put more weight in favor of oil price change. The fact is that the price of each changes constantly, but over time they may have some key relationship. Another argument against what we have said in this article is that gold has a long and ancient history and role in economics, whereas oil is quite new by comparison, and that oil when from seemingly infinite in supply to seemingly limited in amount and capacity to keep up with growth -- that might argue that a long-term central price relationship cannot be found.

Ideas for Investing in Crude Oil

whisperonthewind:

I am also concerned about the Canadian taxes, but am in a wait and see mode about how they will work, and how Canadian Oil Sands in particular will restructure as a consequence of the taxes. If the situation will be adverse, the market would probably phase in negative price consequences before the effective date of tax changes. It will also be necessary to weigh the extraordinary long-life reserves in the value equation. There is no question that the Canadian government will take a larger piece of the pie. It's just a matter of whether the remaining piece will be attractive. The US trusts are shorter reserve life.

Ideas for Investing in Crude Oil

Whisperonthewind:

The list of securities in the article is not rerpesented as comprehensive. It covers principally industry groups and a few individual securities of particular interest to us for the purpose being discussed in the article. We find the trusts we mentioned more attractive for the purpose than the ones you mentioned.

I could give you an even longer list of securities not included.

If the securities you name are of particular interest to you, this is the place to present what you know about them and discuss them.

For comprehensive coverage of royalty trusts, you might read articles by and visit the website of Kurt Wulf (McDep.com)

Oil Price Predictions and Break-Even Prices

Mister P:

The cost figures are reported by the research arm of a leading MidEast bank. I am reporting their data. Neither you nor I have the ability to accumulate the data they have available. You may be correct that they calculate differently than you would do, or than is done for Canadian oil sands. However, if the ME governments perceive there costs to be as reported, it will impact their willingness to pump at various prices. This report did not suggest that the costs of oil sands and ME oil pumping are equivalent. It reported that there are break-even floor numbers calculated by producers, however calculated, and we reported them. Those numbers impact seller behavior.

Perhaps more attention to the article and less to trying to personal attacks would serve you better in this case.

Oil Price Predictions and Break-Even Prices

The Department of Energy may be politically constrained in its assumptions, or maybe they are simply more optimistic about lower prices. One good source may be the oil producing companies that make predictions in their periodic SEC reports. They make multi-year assumptions in determining the value of their reserves. There are also the private research houses that provide opinions -- some public and some only to clients.

Oil Price Predictions and Break-Even Prices

Tex,

Thanks. We would like to hear more about break-even prices. The prices in the article were published by the Canadian Oil Sands Trust for itself, by Kurt Wulf for PetroCanada (who seems to have gotten the data from PetroCanada) and by Mena Capital, the research arm of the National Bank of Kuwait. We did not make the calculations ourselves and have relied upon those sources. What they include in the calculations was not disclosed, but if those are the perceived break-even points they will impact willingness to produce and deliver.

Thanks again.

Oil Price Predictions and Break-Even Prices

User 133363

You are quite right that SJT is overwhelmingly a natural gas trust with minimal oil production. We must admit that we make errors sometimes. That was one caused by going from memory about which trusts are gas and which are oil instead of rechecking each fact. We apologize to our readers for that mistake.

We have properly described and classified SJT in previous reports, but slipped up in this article.

To be precise, we did not recommend any particular security, just indicated that certain types of securities would benefit or be hurt by certain oil price outcomes. We could have listed more, but chose to list ones that seem to have more trading volume than some others.

We did not recommend owning oil via USO, but did suggest that over time it will rise or fall with oil prices, backwardation or not.

Contrary to your assertion, we do have an idea of what you are talking about, but we appreciate being told when we make mistakes, although we could do with out the mean spirited approach you chose to point out the error -- but then you may not make mistakes and may not realize how easy it can be for lesser intellects to make an error. It is always easier to be anonymous as you are when casting stones as you are today. Perhaps you should consider coming out from behind your anonymity to contribute articles to share your superior knowledge. I'd enjoy reading it.

In defense of Seeking Alpha, they can't fact check every point in every article, and any complaint you wish to register should be directed at us not them.

Our point remains the same, but we regret mistakenly classifying SJT as an oil royalty trust.