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Jose Koshy's  Instablog

Jose Koshy
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Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
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  • India Week Ahead - 16th - 22nd April 2012

    Last week the Indian markets moved down 2.2%, the markets had the IIP data coming in lower than expected and also had the result season kicking off with Infosys results which was way below market expectation and tanked 13 %. The EU economic issue comes to haunt the market from time to time, now it's the Spain's turn. One by one the red alerts are being sounded. In India there is a bail out of a different kind, the government has decided to bail out Air India with a Rs 30000 Crore life line, not sure why the government has to get into business and use tax payers money to b ail out in efficient corporate houses. Does the government have its priorities right? On the global front, Alcoa, JPM and Google announced results that were better than expected; markets did not react in a big way. Looks like the results are fully priced in the market and any - ve surprises will be brutally punished and meeting market expectation may at best keep the valuations at the same level.

    This week the India market will start the week with inflation data coming in on Monday followed by the RBI policy statement on 17th April. The result season will see Reliance, ACC, IFCI etc announcing results. This week markets are at the support level at 5180 - 5200, so a break of this level on the downside will have some deep cuts. In case it takes support, a retest of 5300 - 20 cannot be ruled out.

    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 106128 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.17 the option IVs for Calls at 20 % & Puts at 23%. The Nifty Future is trading at 10 point Premium to spot. The Technical & Derivative positions seem to suggest a move of indecision.

    Nifty on 13th Apr: 5207

    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Sell Nifty on a break of 5180 for a Target of 5080. SL: 5220

    Stock ideas for the Week: Sell L&T < Rs 1300 levels Target: Rs 1200 SL : 1326

    Trade safe

    Tags: IFN, EEM, EPI, India
    Apr 15 7:51 AM | Link | Comment!
  • India Week Ahead 9th - 14th April 2012

    Last week the Indian markets moved up 0.7%, the month started with some up moves to the 5380 levels as expected. The week had just 3 trading days and the volumes were low due to the long weekend and lower participation. The Auto sales came in well above expectation, so were the cement no's. The confusion over GAAR still persists despite the finance ministry clarifying that Participatory Notes (PN) will not be taxed. On the global front Spain continues to keep world markets edgy, the Spanish bond auction did not go well sending fears across EU and the rest of the markets. The unemployment in US dropped to 8.3 %, there are still fears despite all the easing the economy is not growing as much. The US is going in for president election in October, so the economy has to be seen growing for Obama to get an additional term he is gunning for.

    This week the India market will start the moves with the Infosys result on 13th April, the global result season too will start with Alcoa. The finance minister just said, we may have pressure on Banks if we don't see a growth of > 7 % in India. The pressure on Iran may be easing with US saying Iran can go ahead with the nuclear program if it can prove it is for peaceful purpose. This may give markets an up move with Oil prices easing soon.

    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 95266 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.28 the option IVs for Calls at 21 % & Puts at 23%. The Nifty Future is trading at 20 point Premium to spot. The Technical & Derivative positions seem to suggest an up move into next week

    Nifty on 4th Apr: 5322

    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy Nifty around 5310 for a Target of 5400. SL: 5270

    Stock ideas for the Week: Sell Tata Motors Rs 282 levels Target: Rs 265 SL : 284

    Trade safe

    Tags: EPI, IFN, EEM, India
    Apr 08 1:28 AM | Link | Comment!
  • India Week Ahead - 2nd - 8th April 2012
    Last week the Indian markets moved up 0.2 %, the confusion over GARR and the finance ministry's unconvincing clarification kept the market on the edge. On Friday the market moved up smartly and squeezed the shorts. The liquidity flow seems to be on a high, so markets will not see any major correction just yet. The EU has upped their arsenal of liquidity and the US too has talked up the market. The RBI in India came to the rescue of Bonds by buying close to Rs 10000 Crs on Friday easing yields sharply. The FII's have been net buyers of Rs 5500 Crs through March. The balance sheets of most economies in developed world has gone up by 2 - 3 times in 3 years all thanks to the the excessive liquidity being flooded into the market. There has been no major run up in the economy in these markets. Only time will tell us, when the runaway inflation will hit the global markets. The party will continue till the governments in the developed markets hold on to the money printing machine.

    This week the India market will have a 3 day trading and so can expect tepid volumes, we have the auto & cement numbers coming in, which is expected to be good despite the excise increase. The quarterly nos. should start to flow in from 9th April, so we can have a +ve run up to the events. The US have a fabulous 15 % increase in Jan - March quarter, this was one of the best quarter after 2007.

    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 92651 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.22 the option IVs for Calls at 22 % & Puts at 26 %. The Nifty Future is trading at 30 point Premium to spot. The Technical & Derivative positions seem to suggest an upmove into next week

    Nifty on 30th Mar: 5295

    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy Nifty around 5280 for a Target of 5400. SL: 5235

    Stock ideas for the Week: Buy Reliance around Rs 740 levels Target: Rs 760 SL : 735

    Trade safe

    Tags: EEM, EPI, IFN, India
    Apr 01 12:24 AM | Link | Comment!
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