Jose Koshy's Instablog Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models. Jose Koshy http://seekingalpha.com India week ahead - 4th - 9th Jan 2010 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/340832-jose-koshy/41903-india-week-ahead-4th-9th-jan-2010?source=feed 41903 Wishing you a happy & prosperous New Year 2010, just got back from my vacation and was nice to see the markets just struck in the range of 4950 – 5225 levels, the stimulus & steroid induced rally seem to be at the end. All economies need to fund huge debts that is created, US is has another $ 1.8 Trillion in Debt to be sold. So who will fund it, either the foreign countries like India or china, or is it by getting the US treasury to print more notes. Looking at the tepid response by foreigners to buy US debt, my fear is they will push for printing more $ and creating a chain reaction across the globe and driving inflation in 2010 to unprecedented levels. So after a average of 50 % rise in global markets in 2010, if we are expecting a higher rise then we may be foxed to expect this type of returns. India went up by 80 %, one of the highest in the world. India may correct with the global markets, but may not fall as rapidly as the developed markets. It is good the RBI always follow conservative practice. The food inflation last week continued in the 19 % levels, the government needs to do something before it goes out of hand. On the fiscal prudence, the government need to do a lot, some good steps being mooted came last week when, the govt is proposing to restrict the PDS kerosene supply thereby reducing the subsidies and also discouraging adulteration of diesel.

This week markets will be watching the December sales nos, the auto sales came in at > 35 %. So the first week markets will play to these and then will go on to the result season, which may not throw any major surprises. We need to understand macro fundamentals & global markets at this juncture. We may be in for a major downward spiral soon. We need to be careful.

The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 74000 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.22 the option IVs for Calls at 21 % & Puts at 23%. We may see sideways movement with a – Ve bias.

We should see a correction in the overall markets in the next 2 – 3 weeks.

Sell Nifty @ 5200 – 5225 for a Target of 4950

]]> Sun, 03 Jan 2010 10:47:22 -0500 Wishing you a happy & prosperous New Year 2010, just got back from my vacation and was nice to see the markets just struck in the range of 4950 – 5225 levels, the stimulus & steroid induced rally seem to be at the end. All economies need to fund huge debts that is created, US is has another $ 1.8 Trillion in Debt to be sold. So who will fund it, either the foreign countries like India or china, or is it by getting the US treasury to print more notes. Looking at the tepid response by foreigners to buy US debt, my fear is they will push for printing more $ and creating a chain reaction across the globe and driving inflation in 2010 to unprecedented levels. So after a average of 50 % rise in global markets in 2010, if we are expecting a higher rise then we may be foxed to expect this type of returns. India went up by 80 %, one of the highest in the world. India may correct with the global markets, but may not fall as rapidly as the developed markets. It is good the RBI always follow conservative practice. The food inflation last week continued in the 19 % levels, the government needs to do something before it goes out of hand. On the fiscal prudence, the government need to do a lot, some good steps being mooted came last week when, the govt is proposing to restrict the PDS kerosene supply thereby reducing the subsidies and also discouraging adulteration of diesel.

This week markets will be watching the December sales nos, the auto sales came in at > 35 %. So the first week markets will play to these and then will go on to the result season, which may not throw any major surprises. We need to understand macro fundamentals & global markets at this juncture. We may be in for a major downward spiral soon. We need to be careful.

The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 74000 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.22 the option IVs for Calls at 21 % & Puts at 23%. We may see sideways movement with a – Ve bias.

We should see a correction in the overall markets in the next 2 – 3 weeks.

Sell Nifty @ 5200 – 5225 for a Target of 4950

]]> ifn eem infy wit emerging Markets india growth commodities On Holiday http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/340832-jose-koshy/40429-on-holiday?source=feed 40429 Fri, 18 Dec 2009 06:19:46 -0500 India Week Ahead - 7th - 12th December 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/340832-jose-koshy/38607-india-week-ahead-7th-12th-december-2009?source=feed 38607 The past week the markets the Indian market moved up by 2.8 %, this was because India had one of the best GDP growth no. @ 7.9 %, one point to be noted is that the stimulus and easy cash regime has added to 2.8 % of this growth. It is time, the government starts to pull back the stimulus and work on the real growth. The US & other developed markets may not be able to come out of the stimulus model as yet due to slow growth. The Auto Industry grew by a whopping 63 % in Nov, which is generally considered to be weak due to year end pressures. The easy money policy is not only driving the sales but also putting enormous pressure on the government as the oil prices are subsidized in India. The food inflation came in at 17.8 %, this will drive more people into poverty and will pressure to have lesser money to save. We must see the interest rate harden sooner. The government may suck out liquidity using the CRR most probably in January 2010. The gold prices softened on Friday with a 5 % fall on the back of good employment nos, the $ strengthened and closed above the 50 day average after March 2009, so we may see a short term upmove in the $ and a correction in commodities and stock markets into March 2010. The next 12 months will also see the US $ 3 trillion of short term debt being financed. Will be interesting to see who will buy these debt ? If Dubai $ 60 B debt crisis was anything, watch out for 2010 for exciting news on funding sovereign debts.

This week markets will be watching the $ movement and thereby the commodities and stock markets. India will be watching the run up to the advance tax numbers that will have to be filed by 15th December. There is a $ 74 billion in debt auction in the US along with the retail sales nos. So the markets are all on topping mode, so we may see a sideways with a – Ve bias soon. Traditionally December has been a +ve month for the markets, so big falls don’t happen this month. Also the fund managers need to manage books & NAV for their bonuses. We must see the Wall Street sharks taking in big bonus with a 22 % up move in stocks during the year.

The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 100940 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.29 the option IVs for Calls at 22 % & Puts at 25%. We may see sideways movement with a – Ve bias.

Hold Shorts on the Index to cover by mid next week.

]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 07:01:25 -0500 The past week the markets the Indian market moved up by 2.8 %, this was because India had one of the best GDP growth no. @ 7.9 %, one point to be noted is that the stimulus and easy cash regime has added to 2.8 % of this growth. It is time, the government starts to pull back the stimulus and work on the real growth. The US & other developed markets may not be able to come out of the stimulus model as yet due to slow growth. The Auto Industry grew by a whopping 63 % in Nov, which is generally considered to be weak due to year end pressures. The easy money policy is not only driving the sales but also putting enormous pressure on the government as the oil prices are subsidized in India. The food inflation came in at 17.8 %, this will drive more people into poverty and will pressure to have lesser money to save. We must see the interest rate harden sooner. The government may suck out liquidity using the CRR most probably in January 2010. The gold prices softened on Friday with a 5 % fall on the back of good employment nos, the $ strengthened and closed above the 50 day average after March 2009, so we may see a short term upmove in the $ and a correction in commodities and stock markets into March 2010. The next 12 months will also see the US $ 3 trillion of short term debt being financed. Will be interesting to see who will buy these debt ? If Dubai $ 60 B debt crisis was anything, watch out for 2010 for exciting news on funding sovereign debts.

This week markets will be watching the $ movement and thereby the commodities and stock markets. India will be watching the run up to the advance tax numbers that will have to be filed by 15th December. There is a $ 74 billion in debt auction in the US along with the retail sales nos. So the markets are all on topping mode, so we may see a sideways with a – Ve bias soon. Traditionally December has been a +ve month for the markets, so big falls don’t happen this month. Also the fund managers need to manage books & NAV for their bonuses. We must see the Wall Street sharks taking in big bonus with a 22 % up move in stocks during the year.

The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 100940 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.29 the option IVs for Calls at 22 % & Puts at 25%. We may see sideways movement with a – Ve bias.

Hold Shorts on the Index to cover by mid next week.

]]> ifn eem wit infy ttm ibn hdb gld India Growth Emerging markets commodities India week ahead - 30th Nov - 5th Dec 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/340832-jose-koshy/37603-india-week-ahead-30th-nov-5th-dec-2009?source=feed 37603 The past week the markets exhibited a volatile move with the index dropping by 1 %. The markets were spooked by the Dubai world crisis towards the end of the week, and dragged the global markets. There is an all round fear that this may start the meltdown back again. This is an $ 80 B debt and there is every chance there will be defaults and the risk premiums across the world will increase. The Indian govt has come out with a statement,” India will not be affected by the crisis in Dubai “. Stock markets are all about liquidity, so the lesser flows or pull out of funds by FII’s will increase risk in our markets. The Macro fundamentals have not improved much, the loan disbursement is still very low, and the sales growth is flat to low, the food inflation last week is at 15.58 %. We also had the Indian Prime minister visiting the US and the US is keen to have a greater relationship with the largest democracy in the World. So here is an opportunity for India to become a super power.

This week markets will be watching the global fall out of the Dubai world crisis, markets have been overheated and this crisis came in at an hour for the bulls to take in some profits. Most analysts continue to believe the worst is behind us! My personal belief us we may not be out of the woods yet. The US markets will be looking at the Black Friday report on shopping, it is expected to be 0.5 – 1 % up over last year. The holiday shopping is expected to fall by 1 %. Traditionally December has been a positive month with the Santa rally and the funds adjusting their NAV’s. So even if we have a technical correction in the early part of December, we may see an upmove later on..

The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 87805 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.31 the option IVs for Calls at 24 % & Puts at 28%. The technical momentum indicators say, we may have some more corrections this week. So watch out for the levels 4920, a break of it will take the markets down to test 4550 levels before we see a pull back.

Sell Nifty @ 4950 for a target of 4550 in 2 weeks.

]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:25:45 -0500 The past week the markets exhibited a volatile move with the index dropping by 1 %. The markets were spooked by the Dubai world crisis towards the end of the week, and dragged the global markets. There is an all round fear that this may start the meltdown back again. This is an $ 80 B debt and there is every chance there will be defaults and the risk premiums across the world will increase. The Indian govt has come out with a statement,” India will not be affected by the crisis in Dubai “. Stock markets are all about liquidity, so the lesser flows or pull out of funds by FII’s will increase risk in our markets. The Macro fundamentals have not improved much, the loan disbursement is still very low, and the sales growth is flat to low, the food inflation last week is at 15.58 %. We also had the Indian Prime minister visiting the US and the US is keen to have a greater relationship with the largest democracy in the World. So here is an opportunity for India to become a super power.

This week markets will be watching the global fall out of the Dubai world crisis, markets have been overheated and this crisis came in at an hour for the bulls to take in some profits. Most analysts continue to believe the worst is behind us! My personal belief us we may not be out of the woods yet. The US markets will be looking at the Black Friday report on shopping, it is expected to be 0.5 – 1 % up over last year. The holiday shopping is expected to fall by 1 %. Traditionally December has been a positive month with the Santa rally and the funds adjusting their NAV’s. So even if we have a technical correction in the early part of December, we may see an upmove later on..

The derivative series has seen some good roll over to the new series, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 87805 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.31 the option IVs for Calls at 24 % & Puts at 28%. The technical momentum indicators say, we may have some more corrections this week. So watch out for the levels 4920, a break of it will take the markets down to test 4550 levels before we see a pull back.

Sell Nifty @ 4950 for a target of 4550 in 2 weeks.

]]> ifn eem infy wit ibn hdb ttm India Emerging Markets growth Commodities India week ahead - 23rd - 28th Nov 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/340832-jose-koshy/36855-india-week-ahead-23rd-28th-nov-2009?source=feed 36855 The past week the markets exhibited a sideways move with a +ve bias and moved up 1 %. The markets continue to defy gravity with the loose $ regime, despite the $ strengthening a bit, markets continue its march, looks like there are too many hedged positions in the stock & commodity markets. In India, there was news on Food inflation touching 14.6 %, this is extremely high and the government is trying but will find it difficult. The pressure on the cane price was seen with the farmers taking over Delhi and the Lok sabha came to a stand still, the government is under pressure to increase prices and also manage the Sugar prices which is going up by the day. The Sugar co’s will pay the price and make them unprofitable. The sugar co. stocks were battered with an average of 8 – 10 % drop in price. The other news was on the government indicating there would be mergers in the PSU banks and they plan to have 10 PSU banks. This is a smart move from the government side. The consolidation will help manage the Basel II norms. Reliance has set its sight on a large acquisition and is seriously bidding for Lyondell. Lyondell is a $ 50 B company.

This week markets will take global cues and move accordingly, the $ seem to be having a technical pull back and all eyes are in the green back moving up, so the much awaited correction in the global stock markets can happen. The derivative settlement will also play up in the markets. The Indian PM is visiting the US and eyes will be on his 4 days there and the statements he will be making.

The derivative series has seen some good accumulation last week, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 118000 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.57 the option IVs for Calls at 23 % & Puts at 28%. The derivative indicators suggest there is huge hedging happening. On the technical side, we are trading at very strong resistance levels around the 5050 – 5100 levels. So watch for any pull back. There are huge shorts in the market that is cushioning the falls.

]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:52:20 -0500 The past week the markets exhibited a sideways move with a +ve bias and moved up 1 %. The markets continue to defy gravity with the loose $ regime, despite the $ strengthening a bit, markets continue its march, looks like there are too many hedged positions in the stock & commodity markets. In India, there was news on Food inflation touching 14.6 %, this is extremely high and the government is trying but will find it difficult. The pressure on the cane price was seen with the farmers taking over Delhi and the Lok sabha came to a stand still, the government is under pressure to increase prices and also manage the Sugar prices which is going up by the day. The Sugar co’s will pay the price and make them unprofitable. The sugar co. stocks were battered with an average of 8 – 10 % drop in price. The other news was on the government indicating there would be mergers in the PSU banks and they plan to have 10 PSU banks. This is a smart move from the government side. The consolidation will help manage the Basel II norms. Reliance has set its sight on a large acquisition and is seriously bidding for Lyondell. Lyondell is a $ 50 B company.

This week markets will take global cues and move accordingly, the $ seem to be having a technical pull back and all eyes are in the green back moving up, so the much awaited correction in the global stock markets can happen. The derivative settlement will also play up in the markets. The Indian PM is visiting the US and eyes will be on his 4 days there and the statements he will be making.

The derivative series has seen some good accumulation last week, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 118000 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.57 the option IVs for Calls at 23 % & Puts at 28%. The derivative indicators suggest there is huge hedging happening. On the technical side, we are trading at very strong resistance levels around the 5050 – 5100 levels. So watch for any pull back. There are huge shorts in the market that is cushioning the falls.

]]> ifn eem India Growth Emerging markets commodities India Week ahead - 16th - 21st Nov 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/340832-jose-koshy/35889-india-week-ahead-16th-21st-nov-2009?source=feed 35889 The past week the markets moved up on a good IIP data & the disinvestment story, the IIP data came @ 9.1 % way above expectations. The inflation is raising its head once again; the loose money policy is set to drive it sharply. The food inflation is @ 13.6 %, so are we out of the woods? The answer would be NO. The macro story of food inflation is also to do with the cultivable land is shrinking in the face of industrialization across the country. So we will only see this worsening going forward. The NREG scheme is driving rural income and thereby rural growth & consumption, the price of food is set to go up further. So agriculture commodity is a place to invest and get to farming in India.

This week markets will take global cues and move accordingly, Obama is on a 10 day Asian trip, this is the first time an American President is spending so much time at a stretch in Asia, this confirms the seriousness US is attaching to the growth markets in Asia. If the US plays it smart and gets to reduce cost and start to export to markets in Asia, they can get off the recession mode sooner. The Indian market will be looking forward to the RIL AGM, already there are expectations getting built on settlement announcement & large global acquisitions etc. So markets are already discounting all these. I will be surprised if any major announcement would be made by RIL. The FII’s continue to pour in cheap $ into commodities & stocks.

The derivative series has seen some good accumulation last week, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 113000 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.56 the option IVs for Calls at 25 % & Puts at 30%. The derivative indicators suggest there is huge hedging happening. On the technical side, we are trading at very strong resistance levels around the 5050 – 5100 levels. So watch for any pull back. There are huge shorts in the market that is cushioning the falls.

Traders can look @ Shorting in the range of 5050 – 5100 levels for a final Target of 4850 levels.

]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 10:05:16 -0500 The past week the markets moved up on a good IIP data & the disinvestment story, the IIP data came @ 9.1 % way above expectations. The inflation is raising its head once again; the loose money policy is set to drive it sharply. The food inflation is @ 13.6 %, so are we out of the woods? The answer would be NO. The macro story of food inflation is also to do with the cultivable land is shrinking in the face of industrialization across the country. So we will only see this worsening going forward. The NREG scheme is driving rural income and thereby rural growth & consumption, the price of food is set to go up further. So agriculture commodity is a place to invest and get to farming in India.

This week markets will take global cues and move accordingly, Obama is on a 10 day Asian trip, this is the first time an American President is spending so much time at a stretch in Asia, this confirms the seriousness US is attaching to the growth markets in Asia. If the US plays it smart and gets to reduce cost and start to export to markets in Asia, they can get off the recession mode sooner. The Indian market will be looking forward to the RIL AGM, already there are expectations getting built on settlement announcement & large global acquisitions etc. So markets are already discounting all these. I will be surprised if any major announcement would be made by RIL. The FII’s continue to pour in cheap $ into commodities & stocks.

The derivative series has seen some good accumulation last week, the derivatives positions for the week stand at Rs 113000 Crs OI, the PCR is at 1.56 the option IVs for Calls at 25 % & Puts at 30%. The derivative indicators suggest there is huge hedging happening. On the technical side, we are trading at very strong resistance levels around the 5050 – 5100 levels. So watch for any pull back. There are huge shorts in the market that is cushioning the falls.

Traders can look @ Shorting in the range of 5050 – 5100 levels for a final Target of 4850 levels.

]]> ifn infy eem wit ibn hdb India Growth Emerging Markets Commodities