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Jose Koshy
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Have been trading n investing in the Indian stock market for 20+ years, has been my hobby to track markets and predict based on fundamental and technical models.
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  • India week ahead - 26th - 31st Dec 2011
    Last week the Indian markets moved up by 1.6 % after a 2 days of sharp fall, the markets touched a 26 month low of 5540 levels before moving up to close at 4715. The markets gyrated to the slow growth in the Indian economy to the global fears around the EU. The EU came up with free money to banks totaling $ 650 billion, history says this is a first aid and will not solve the issues facing the globe. The Santa rally seems to have taken shape and the US markets moved up by 3.8 % and has managed to keep up for the year 2011. The Moody’s meanwhile has upgraded the Indian government bonds to ‘Investment grade’. With all countries rushing to print money and manage the liquidity crisis, it is a matter of time when inflation will start hurting global economies especially developed ones and the yield will start moving up.
    This week the Indian markets will look up to the derivative settlement, the markets will be on an upward move looking at the cues and the light volume trades that will happen due to the holiday season. We will also have the fund managers managing NAVs towards the end of the year. Technically markets have a little more to go. On the Indian government front, we have the ‘Lokpal bill’ debate starting on 27th Dec. This may add to some volatility to the markets.
    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 132434Crs in OI; the PCR is at 0.90 the option IVs for Calls at 26 % & Puts at 27 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a 9 point Premium to spot. The volatility indicates we can see some sharp moves in either direction.
    Nifty on 23rd Dec 2011: 4718
    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy around 4760: Target: 49200 Stop Loss: 4720
    Stock ideas for the Week: Buy Wipro around Rs 400 for a Target of Rs 420 SL: 389
    Tags: EPI, IFN, EEM, India
    Dec 26 12:11 AM | Link | Comment!
  • India week ahead 12th - 18th Dec 2011
    Last week the Indian markets fell by 4 % as expected due to a lot of bad news coming in from the government in the form of deferring the FDI in retail bill, the negative growth on manufacturing, deferring the bills on insurance & pension reforms. The global markets were resilient with the EU leaders coming together to thrash out the issues. The devil is in the details, so we will need to see what the markets perceive on the EU leaders decision to manage the debt crisis. The Indian fiscal situation is going out of control and the government has said they will not meet the targets by March 2012. The investments into India will slow down with the lack of governance and the slowing growth.
    This week the Indian markets have the IIP nos. and the government to look up for some help. The RBI will also be announcing the policy on 16th Dec. The advance tax nos. paid by the companies will be looked at to get cues on the growth for the quarter. We can see some volatile movements going forward. On the global front, we may see a short term correction this week post all the moves last week.
    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 118212 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.08 the option IVs for Calls at 27 % & Puts at 31 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a 16 point Premium to spot. The volatility indicates we can see some sharp moves in either direction.
    Nifty on 9th Dec 2011: 4858
    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Buy around 4760: Target: 4950 Stop Loss: 4720
    Stock ideas for the Week: Buy SBI around Rs 1800 for a Target of Rs 1950 SL: 1790
    Tags: EPI, IFN, EEM, India
    Dec 11 3:49 AM | Link | Comment!
  • India week ahead - 5th - 11th Dec 2011
    Last week the Indian markets moved up by 7 %, as expected, the oversold conditions fueled by the 6 central; bankers coming in to provide adequate liquidity and the expectations of a EU debt management solution during the meeting the coming week has added to the global up move. In India the food inflation came in better at 8 % and the GDP number at 6.9 % came in better than expected. The FDI impasse continued with opposition disrupting parliament for 9 days, it is unfortunate that an agrarian economy like India not going in for FDI in retail. The consumers will be the biggest beneficiary and will help the inflation come down drastically due to competitive pricing and technology around storing & delivery which can help farmers realize better prices and avoid wastage. The political parties are playing to the traders vote bank and are taking the country to the dark ages. The Indian democracy needs to mature and cut across party lines for good policies. These moves have affected decision making & governance. Such moves will push back India as an investment destination.
    This week the Indian markets may take a breather and offer a correction to the sharp up move noticed last week. The EU leaders meeting on 8th Dec will be eyed for global cues. The Debt auction in the EU countries will be watched for direction of liquidity. The FDI in retail will take center stage back again, with Mamta holding on to her stand opposing the move, there may be a temporary stop to driving this hard by the government.
    The derivatives position for the week stands at Rs 107684 Crs in OI; the PCR is at 1.31 the option IVs for Calls at 21 % & Puts at 24 %. The Nifty Future is trading at a 30 point Premium to spot.
    Nifty on 2nd Dec 2011: 5063
    Nifty trading ideas for the week: Sell around 5060: Target: 4950 Stop Loss: 5080
    Stock ideas for the Week: Sell Sterlite around Rs 110 for a Target of Rs 100 SL: 112
    Tags: IFN, EEM, EPI, India
    Dec 04 12:40 AM | Link | Comment!
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