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  • Alliance Resources: Profitable In The Most Dire Conditions  [View article]
    Very nice summary of an outstandingly run co. in a depressed industry. Mention of taking advantage of distressed assets is clear when looking at the reserves bought from Patriot Coal Co. at a desperate price for Patriot. The purchased reserves were about 500 million tons, all situated around ARLP's mines. By itself, this increase ARLP's reserves by 50%, and, as the company said, assured the co. of being the low cost producer of coal for the next several decades. The free cash flow available to the co. for investment will allow them to re-invent themselves several times in the next decade. The purchase of the remaining interest in White Oak is icing on the cake. It substantially increases quality reserves and adds an excellent low cost long wall operation to their portfolio of assets. As the others shrink or disappear, such as ANR,ACI,WLT, and even BTU, ARLP will be around to pick up the pieces.
    Aug 14, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners LP: The Recent Collapse Presents A Strong Buying Opportunity  [View article]
    I'm not so sure the "macro environment" will turn around to benefit NRP. Cent. App. coal is much too expensive to mine compared to N. APP. and Illinois Basin, and I think the Cent. App players will be replaced by people like ARLP who have excess capacity and a far cheaper coal operation. NRP will probably survive, but I wouldn't be too optimistic about their future. They did see the decline in Cent. App. coal but couldn't diversify fast enough. It wouldn't totally surprise me to see ARLP buy out NRP at a good price(for ARLP), since ARLP is itself expanding and recently bought 500 million tons of Ill. basin coal reserves from a desperate Patriot Coal, who are again back in bankruptcy. It would be better for all concerned if ANR and ACI go belly up quickly, instead of hanging on by their fingernails to the detriment of everyone.
    May 28, 2015. 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners Is The Only Coal Stock I Want To Own  [View article]
    The article mentions excess free cash flow as available to increase distributions. It is even more valuable to expand their operations to take advantage of good investments, and the company is doing so. They have invested in White Oak Mining, which will give them strong add'l. cash flow, a new mine in South Gibson, which is near their older mine of North Gibson and thus able to use trans. facilities already available, and have now announced a beginning investment group in Oil and Gas at a time when those investments are at a low. They have also just increased their coal reserves by a lot-some 50%, at a fire sale bankruptcy price, taking advantage of other coal co's. problems. That's the advantage a deep pocketed player has when times are tough,and they have been smart enough to side step problems. They have also acquired a 3 year contract to supply 5 million tons of coal to a customer from Patriot Coal, who were desparate for cash.
    Mar 11, 2015. 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Consistent Distribution Growth Through Low-Cost Mines  [View article]
    I believe the distribution coverage listed somewhat understates the Co's. true coverage, since during the last 2 years large Capex was being used to begin production at Gibson South, which opened in April of this year, and White Oak, which began long wall production on Oct.24th. So a large Capex is now coming to an end, and turning into a substantial free cash flow.

    You were right on on the Patriot deal, which was announced on Friday, 1/2/15. Another example of the advantage of free cash flow.

    Since it is an MLP, I wouldn't be in a hurry to take profits if the stock runs up. The tax consequences, in return for the Capital return nature of the distributions, can make recapture painful (and unnecessary-the Co. should be held forever.)
    Jan 3, 2015. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Like Coal? Buy Alliance Resource Partners  [View article]
    Good report. I wish I wasn't already fully invested in ARLP. Best management there is. Long wall operation of White Oak and build out of Gibson South mines about to give ARLP a real adrenaline rush. On an earnings basis it's not only the AAPL of the coal industry, it's the AAPL of the S&P 500.
    Oct 14, 2014. 04:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners LP beats by $0.10, beats on revenue  [View news story]
    Looks like non coal revenues finally increasing meaningfully in 4th quarter. Non coal rev. in 3rd qtr.-$29.9 million,4th qtr. $47.0 million. Remarks that weather related demand for coal increasing but not yet reflected in coal prices-but likely to eventually when coal stocks need to be replenished. No hedges on oil and gas. Funds available for new investments are substantial due to reduced distribution.
    Report is positive indication of future.
    Feb 13, 2014. 08:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody And Arch: The Hallmarks Of Coal-Based Energy Portfolios  [View article]
    I don't understand why you aren't mentioning ARLP, which is the only coal co. in the US capable of coping with the current environment. They have raised their div. and earnings for about 20 quarters in a row while everyone else is collapsing. If the environment gets better, which I think it will, they will do even better. In the meantime, partners collect a really juicy distribution, which is growing. The rest of the industry is questionable at best, and Peabody has to worry about Australian taxes if they start to do better. The Aussies are like the British, too social minded to leave profitable companies alone.
    ARLP will be replacing the entire Central App. coal industry in the next few years.
    Jan 15, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Resource Partners: Buy The Dip, Diversification Coming  [View article]
    I believe that NRP could have continued paying out the old distribution, but this was becoming a burden and preventing their needed diversification. The reduction, as painful as it is, will result in added flexibility and allow them to break out of the straight jacket they were in. In the long run, the Partners will benefit. But it will take awhile. Meantime, there is still a decent distribution.
    So I agree with the tone of this article, even if this particular transaction doesn't occur. Some others will happen.
    Jan 15, 2014. 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: With All Steps Taken, It's Time To Await Higher Coal Prices  [View article]
    After reading this article I am convinced that anyone not already in Peabody should stay away. Anyone unfortunate to already own it should prepare to sell it on a dead cat bounce in early 2014, if there is one.
    None of the US coal cos. have shown any capability of being reasonably profitable, with only one exception, and that's not Peabody. They are being run for the benefit of their management and employees. No one else. Even if there comes a price increase for coal in general (which I do expect, in moderation), the coal cos. are so totally overvalued now that their stock prices increases will be minimal.
    The only coal co. whose management has their heads on straight is ARLP.
    About the only thing that will save coal in the US is the expansion of the Panama Canal, which will open in mid 2015.
    Dec 24, 2013. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource's Pontiki mine in Kentucky set to close  [View news story]
    Not a cost cutting measure. Pontiki had a mechanical failure last year, and after debating whether the mine should be shut down or repairs should be invested in, mgmt. decided to make the necessary investment. It seemed to be a close call at the time. Management didn't seem all that confident in the mine's future, but they thought it was worth a shot. Co. took a writedown last year, and in today's notice made clear that it wouldn't have a material effect on 2013 financial results.
    It is a small mine-142 miners and 600k tons of coal mined. This is approx. 1/10th of their prodution from the new Tunnel Ridge mine opened May 2012-rated capacity over 6mln tons, and very cheap to mine at that. Tunnel Ridge mine is just about completing its full ramp-up.

    Effect of closing mine is trivial in overall scheme of things. May be further reaction anyway, ....or not.
    Any further downside reaction to this news will make the stock price too cheap. Investments in new mines at Gibson South Complex and White Oak coming on in next two years will have a substantial effect on production and profitability. This is the only profitable Coal mining Co. in the United States, and is beginning to eat into the more expensive coal producers in Central App.
    Sep 27, 2013. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strong Quarter For Alon USA Partners And Another High Distribution  [View article]
    The crack spread is the difference ALDW pays for crude and the amount it receives for refined products, such as gasoline, diesel, kerosene, asphalt, etc.

    The crack spread has been under pressure lately, but you have to define it correctly.
    Jul 23, 2013. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies takes a contrarian stance on coal, making a positive investment case for the surviving producers. All four major coal companies - ANR, ACI, CNX, BTU - have decades of reserves, so there's little need to spend money on exploration, the firm says; even at current prices, the industry should generate substantial levels of free cash flow for years to come.  [View news story]
    I understand your comment, but I don't agree that all the info. on ARLP is already baked in.Their latest exp. project, Tunnel Ridge, came on stream last May 14th, and really only began major expansion in the Dec. qtr. Tunnel Ridge is likely the lowest cost thermal coal producer in the Eastern US. As a result, every qtr. this year will show substantial comparative increases in rev. and profits. By the 4th qtr. of this year, their White Oak investment begins to produce. In 2014 or 2015 their South Gibson mine begins to produce. These are very large investments, some of which will be used for the export market, but all of which will be very profitable.
    Two years ago, arlp was over $80./sh, and I fully expect it to substantially break that price in the next 2 yrs. And the shareholders(partners) get paid very well to wait.
    I expect ARLP to be anything but stable in price, but I feel strongly that the lack of stability will be to the upside. The rest of the industry is too troubled for me to be confident of any appreciation potential. In fact, I think ARLP coal will start to replace more expensive CAPP coal soon. Good Luck.
    Mar 22, 2013. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies takes a contrarian stance on coal, making a positive investment case for the surviving producers. All four major coal companies - ANR, ACI, CNX, BTU - have decades of reserves, so there's little need to spend money on exploration, the firm says; even at current prices, the industry should generate substantial levels of free cash flow for years to come.  [View news story]
    I don't understand how they could make positive comments about coal and not include ARLP, which is the only high quality investment in the industry. Aside from strong cash flow, a high and growing dividend with tax benefits, they have strong organic expansion already in progress.This is very apparent from their recent quarterly reports, but will become even more evident in their next report coming in April.
    The rest of the coal industry is very speculative and chancy, although trading at such low levels some of them may be worthy of risk oriented funds. But not from me.
    Mar 22, 2013. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Consensus Coal Estimates: Comparing A Year Ago Vs. Today  [View article]
    ARLP is far more than just a "dividend" play. If you listen to their presentation at Wells Fargo on 12/04 you will hear a very nice summation of their pipeline of increasing production for the next 3 years. Substantial growth is in the works.
    I don't like any of the other coal plays, except for NRP, which really is a "dividend" play.
    Dec 5, 2012. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • By Far The Strongest Coal Producer, 31% - 42% Upside Potential  [View article]
    Peter-you must be very influential. ARLP went up again today(11/8) in the face of a second down day. Quality will always shine through, at least eventually. Keep up the good work.
    Nov 8, 2012. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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