Go Lakers

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Hooray, finally someone who speaks some sense. This line is absolute garbage:

"Without America discovering the “next new thing” our previous standard of living will accelerate downward."

America pretty much has a mortgage on this business, particularly in the tech space. I don't understand how because a large group of people wanted to buy homes and they were lent money they shouldn't have been that the American ability to innovate has somehow disappeared into this air.

Can you please explain that to me Mr. Clark? Or anyone else?


On Nov 19 02:11 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> As a person who has become financially independent SOLELY through
> investing let me add a few things
>
> Ill give you 158 billion reasons why we will have no depression<br/>
>
> Mr warren Buffett the only person to ever earn over 150 billion for
> he and his investors allocating capital has told you it is not happening
>
>
> Want more proof. none of the big shorts like paulson Rogers Soros
> chanos kass are shorting financials here like they were
>
> Want more proof Chinese economy would fold if america's 12 trillion
> dollar econmy just died out or even went back drastically
>
> Fact is you can continue to get debt as long as someone is willing
> to back you
>
> China will back us but at what price?
>
> Forget all this depression crap.not happening
>
> what happened last year wa sa massive deleveraging

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

Well said. She has to keep up the bearish fascade or admit she has been wrong all of 2009. And of course, she won't do that. We'll get a 500 point pull back in the midst of a 5000 point rally and she'll tell you she was right.


On Nov 18 10:58 AM IRAWinner wrote:

> I'd rather have my returns than Meredith's this year. I'm speaking
> for many if not all readers who have held or increased equity exposures
> this year. If she was right in '07 why don't we acknowledge how wrong
> she has been since?

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

She got one thing right, once. Granted it was a big thing but she was in this business for a long time before October 31, 2007 and even the author concedes she was "little known" before then. The reason for that is that she hadn't distinguished herself. She no doubt tried......with bold calls that turned out to be wrong.

This one turned out to be right. Does that actually add to the probability her next call is right? Here's a hint - it doesn't.

Australia: What Recession?

Well written articile. I'm an Australian who lives in the US and next to no one here knows this story. For what is supposedly the most savvy investing nation in the world, it's quite amazing that Americans are, for the most part, oblivious to an investing success story right under their noses.

The 4 Pillars bank policy was a saviour for the Australian economy. Without it, and the essential ban on those 4 banks being taken over by a foreign bank (thank you the FIRB), our banks would have almost certainly been players in the sub-prime asset debacle, they would have chased higher returns, they would have been bigger players in the US and European markets, they would have fed Australian households the cheap and, more importantly, easy money that the Poms, the Spanish and the Yanks got.

For all its faults, the 4 Pillars policy works in times of stress and granted that isn't anywhere near the majority of the time, so it arguably contraints growth and innovation. But isn't a time of stress exactly when you need it to work the most?

Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention?

Ever heard of inflation?


On Nov 13 11:55 AM blacksilver wrote:

> In 1980 the only time gold was over $800. was in January with a high
> of $875. and a January low of $558. The low for the year was $453.
> in march.
> So even if you did buy on Jan.21,1980 and averaged your out buys
> the rest of the year ,you still have a good return.

Do We Goldbugs Finally Have Your Attention?

Robert is spot on. For gold to be in a genuine bull market, you need 4 things:

1) Genuine demand - there is none for gold today that hasn't always been there. Things like jewelry and hood ornaments and the like, sure. Anything else? No. Gold creates no income and it has no intrinsic ability to increase in value except for people's perceptions and opinions.

2) Stock markets need to fall - ummm, global stocks are up about 60% since March 2009.

3) The threat of inflation - right now, there is ZERO risk of short or medium term inflation.

4) Gold’s price spike has to be consistent – gold has not increased in value in every currency, just in USD terms. For example, in the last 6 months, gold has actually FALLEN in value in Australian Dollar terms.

As a long term investment, gold is horrible. As a speculative play, it’s great. That means you have to market time and if you could do that with any kind of certainty or consistency, you wouldn’t be posting blog spots at Seeking Alpha. You’d be relaxing on the island you own off of the Spanish coast.


On Nov 13 08:27 AM Robert Jung wrote:

> I don't buy it. I recommend one look at the total return of gold
> over different time intervals. Yes, over the past 5 years the performance
> looks great, +20% annualized. But over the past 20 years it's averaged
> roughly 3.5%. Gold may continue to run short-term given the crazy
> governmental spending and Volcker's influence (re-inflation of assets),
> but I am of the opinion it's a "Bigger Fool" play.
>
> If you invest in gold you are committing one of the big three investment
> mistakes - "Track Record" investing.
>
> If you're an investor it's not for you. But it if you like gambling
> it's better odds than Vegas.

The Intrinsic Value of Nothing, Part 1

Paco, you write: "Think about it. Do you really believe a dollar is valuable on its own? In other words, do you believe that a dollar is valuable, just as it is – simply because the government says so? Or do you believe a dollar is valuable because of the goods and services for which it can be exchanged?
You would be amazed at the vast number of people in the world who have never considered this question."

The reason no one has considered the question is because it doesn't bear considering. This isn't Ben and Barack's idea - the world over right through time has used exchange mechanisms to store value and to trade with. Ours is the US Dollar. In Australia, it's the Australian Dollar. In England, it's the British Pound. Put it this way - try using a pound sterling in Mobile, Alabama. Ain't gonna work. Doesn't mean the pound has no value it just means that the store of value and/or the means of exchange represented by the pound has no value in Mobile. Not the same in Manchester though, is it?

You've tried to write an uber-intelligent essay that, frankly, comes across as pretentious and a little try-hard and it adds little if any value to the debate around inflation. In fact, it adds zero value.

Does Sirius's Climb Indicate Short Covering?

So you'd prefer to stay the course with a healthcare system that grows in cost at 5% more per year than inflation and will eventually bankrupt the country? Or do you think that Government should stay out of healthcare entirely but refuse to see any changes in Medicare coverages?


On Aug 20 11:38 AM ObamaSucks wrote:

> time to jump in......things will get even better if Obama's disasterous
> healthcare plan and socialist tax policies are defeated...the more
> the Dems and Obama are rejected, the more your portfolio will grow!

Sirius XM's Game Changer About to Rock

So are you going to shoot down all of the people who oppose the clear and deliberate effort by public officials, lawmakers and lobbyists to kill of satellite radio?

I didn't think so.....

Satellite radio is an emerging and important technology that threatens old-school radio and the fortunes of those that own it or get paid by it. Senator Herb Kohl in WI is a perfect example. So they do everything they can to kill it off and low-and-behold, it continues to live. Because it's innovative, because we are sick of censorship and because it continues to evolve.


On Aug 20 04:32 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> With all the SIRI paid propaganda bloggers, someone like me is very
> needed to post the reality of SIRI corruption.
>
> I am trying to save a few good people from being hurt bad in this
> stock. Until the rev-split is played out, this stock can not be trusted.
>
>
> On Aug 20 04:05 PM User 473279 wrote:

Market Cycles: A Look at the Historical Evidence

The dumbest post I might have ever seen. Buy a John Deere machine, dig a hole and live in it. That will be the best place if what you describe comes to even remotely pass.


On Aug 06 09:16 AM j-dub wrote:

> Wall Street's NEW reality 8/09
>
>
> beginning of month = rally
> end of month = rally hard
> end of quarter = rallying too hard for words
> California BK = fiscal rejiggering
> Michigan next in line = never mentioned
> CRE depression = REIT's explode higher
> Housing JUNE sales edge higher = housing is rebounding(again)
> GS front running trades = liquidity preservation
> Banks own congress and the Fed = bank rally
> consumer is insolvent = consumer is saving
> mass layoffs = across the board earnings' improvement
> earnings are not improving = earnings are beating street's expectations
>
>
> STILL no jobs created= the consumer is temporarilly retrenching<br/>...
>
> deflation = bull rally
> expiration of unemployment benefits = unemployment is abating OR
>
> contracting(either will do just fine)
> Isn't our economy consumer based? = don't ask, don't tell consumer
> IS 70% of economy = rebound will be business based
> low interest rates = good for stocks
> high interest rates = great for stocks
> collapsing dollar = buy stocks
> rising dollar = not gonna happen
> $10 frozen dinner = sure sign of recovery
> CIT BK = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
> CIT not yet BK = reason to be bullish
> Bank failure Friday = stabilization
> oil @ 50 = recovery is close
> oil at $70 = recovery is incredibly close
> oil at $90 = starting to recover
> oil @ $110 = sign of increased consumer spending
> oil @ $5 = boon for Joe Consumer
> Gas @ $2 = tax break
> gas @ $3 = mustard seeds for economic recovery
> gas @ $4 = depression :)
> Gas @ $1 = not in our lifetime
> employment @ 10 % = better than expected
> employment @ 11% = as expected
> employment @ 12% = not unexpected
> employment @ 13% = could have been expected
> real unemployment right now @ 17% = never discussed
> real unemployment @ 22% = market could correct from here stealing
> from our grandchildren = stimulus
> stealing from our great grandchildren = "cash for clunkers is a huge
>
> success"
> government buying people cars = economy showing signs of life
> economy is already dead = S+P 1000, DOW 10k
> bear market rally = NEW bull market rally
> no basis for NEW bull market rally = dis-included in pumper's handbook
>
>
> 10% unemployment
> effects of socialism
> depressionary states
> higher taxes = THE NEW NORMAL
> oppressive government
> social unrest
> decending to mediocrity
>
>
> AND IF ALL ELSE FAILS(which probably will):
>
> WWIII = TANGIBLE MANUFACTURING GREEN SHOOT

10 Notes on the Current Markets

Thomas, you got a very poor reaction from the crowd for your comment which almost by definition means you must be right. And you are. Write this anywhere you like and hold me to it for as long as you like.

THE US WILL NEVER DEFAULT ON ITS DEBT OBLIGATIONS.

Worst case, it prints the money to pay the debt holder. The Treasury, the Fed and whoever is in the White House at the time are too smart to default. They understand the domino effect of that action all too well after the domino effects that came to light in 2008.


On Aug 06 01:55 PM Thomas J. Gordon wrote:

> I don't understand why David is talking seriously about the u.s.
> defaulting on its debt (last 2 subpoints on item #4). The Fed can
> print money. If the u.s. defaulted on its debt that really would
> cause Great Depression II. Why is David talking about that. I don't
> think we're anywhere near that.

GE Capital: Next CIT?

I worked at GE Capital a long time and I can assure you that winning the deal from the customer was only 25% of the battle - getting it approved internally was 75% of the battle.

They are very conservative and losses will not prove any more an issue for them than any other lender. And they don't play in the pool as far down as CIT, they are pure middle-market. What will prove an issue for GE though is leverage (both theirs and their customers) and that's why CRE is the thorn in their side.

If they can get through the trough and CRE doesn't completely implode on them, they will make it. And comfortably.

Groundbreaking WSJ Story on Gold

There are some seriously alarmist people on this thread. Wow, are there actually intelligent people in the world who think we are going to some sort of "I Am Legend" nuclear economy?

There is some chance, some, that gold has a worthy place in a well diversified investment portfolio. Gold has certainly proven to be an excellent investment in the last 12 to 18 months and in other times of stress or inflation but over the long term, it has been a relatively poor investment.

If you want to buy gold, I would advise having a clear strategy for getting out because it will be difficult to see a sign that will indicate when gold will start to slide. It won't stay near $1000 for the long term, it can't, so anyone who has bought gold of late may have bought at what is a historically high price.

Then again, maybe we get hyper inflation and I look like an idiot for this comment. But the chances of that happening are highly unlikely. I'll take my chances with my view as opposed to the nuclear winter some people here are predicting.

Unemployment Doesn't Always Peak at the End of Recessions

Unemployment next-to-never peaks at the end of a recession, this is hardly news-worthy. I'm with Pat C on this one - you have re-hashed a long known fact and wrapped it around your Republican-biased small-Government-tax-cut mantra. Don't misunderstand me - I'm not a Democrat or an anti-Republican - but you're trying to make a case for small Government and tax cuts through a weak link to a long known economic fact.

The people who read this aren't stupid - you'll have to do better than that to be compelling.

What's Interesting About the World's 50 Safest Banks

The only nations in the world that didn't bleed banking capital in the last 18 months or so are Australia, Canada, China and maybe some parts of south-east Asia. If there are others, I can't think of them.

So even though it seems a surprise that a country of only 21 million people can produce amazing banking results, that's why so many Australian banks are on that list. They didn't get into the sub-prime garbage with the exception of one bank - the largest bank, National Australia Bank. But they did it on such a small scale, it hasn't had anywhere near the impact it has in the US.

All that said, in 5 years time, I would expect that list to look dramatically different. The US banking industry has consolidated markedly and when this crisis passes (and for all you naysayers out there, I have bad news - it will pass), American banks like JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and even Bank of America will again rise up the rankings.

For whatever the rankings are worth.....