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  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    Remember, George Soros can afford to make this bet and be wrong for a long time. Most of us cannot. Don't bet against the odds hoping for a grand slam home run, just go with what is most likely going to make you money.

    And that is to carefully and thoughtfully invest for the long term in good companies or in indices if you don't have the time or expertise to find those companies.

    Or go pay someone else to do it for you, there's lots of good operators out there.

    George Soros is a speculator these days.....your call.
    Sep 13 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    It says nothing webmind, nothing at all. The US has 4% of the global population and 7 of the 27 richest people, so 26%.

    That's an amazing percenatge!! There's nothing wrong with the rest of the world getting richer, it will ultimately make all of us richer and the US will likely get a disproportionate share of that increase in wealth.

    Please be a little more thoughtful before you disparage this great country. And I'm not even American but I live here, have for a long time and can go home to Australia (a great country itself) whenever I want. But I don't.
    Sep 13 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    stingray, please tell me you didn't increase your gold allocation. Get out now while the getting is good. The world could hardly be in a worse geopolitical spot and large cap stocks are up whilst gold is down, a lot.

    Get out now, seriously.
    Sep 12 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Ahead To The Next Recession [View article]
    But you've anchored in today's conditions to set the stage for the potential cause of the next recession.

    That's not how it's going to play out and it has nothing to do with whether global growth gets back to 5% or not. It has everything to do with the fact that whatever will cause the recession is entirely unknown today. If we knew what it was, we'd be regulating it now or mitigating it now.

    The argument that we are causing it now almost by definition assures us that it will not be the cause. So for example, inflation will almost certainly not be the cause.
    Sep 9 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Ahead To The Next Recession [View article]
    You're fighting the last war my friend. None of us have any idea what will trigger the next downturn and what the impact will be. You're taking today's scenario and projecting into the future. That's called "anchoring".

    It's also called "wrong".
    Sep 9 04:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Massively Overvalued Companies Which Could Be Great Shorts [View article]
    adam, some stocks might be in for a correction but the market as a whole is not massively overvalued. Not by a long shot.

    On any given day, there are over valued stocks and there are under valued stocks. This isn't news. But to people who are banking on a massive correction, I hope you're liquid as hell because the big move down isn't imminent. Even if the fundamentals suggested it was, which they don't, the market can stay irrational waaaay longer than you can stay liquid.

    Be careful out there....
    Sep 5 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market [View article]
    I never said I'd figured anything out, that's why I'm here. But I know that market timing is like gambling - rarely done well but there seems loads more stories about successes than failures.

    Look, if you think you can do it, have at it. Between the time, the energy, the trading, the taxes and the heartache, I'd rather invest than trade and I'll probably make the same money over time because I'll only ever hear about your wins and never the market-timed trades you made that didn't work.

    Plus I'll pay half the taxes and a tenth the trading costs, and have loads of time to make other money, hang with my kids, have fun with my friends.

    Good luck.
    Aug 26 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market [View article]
    You can respectfully disagree all you like spam but if you were able to do it, you wouldn't be on a blog countering the points of a schmuck like me. You'd be on your private island waving hello to your neighbor, Larry Ellison.

    You might be able to pick up a few moves here-and-there, maybe even get it right two or three times, maybe even in a row. But the chances that you can successfully time the market over a long time and with enough cash behind it so that:

    a) your conviction is clear for all to see, and
    b) you get really rich,

    is near zero - you can't do that.

    Otherwise, like I said, you'd make two huge back-to-back bets, go all-in on both and retire very wealthy. You've never done that, I'm guessing.
    Aug 26 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market [View article]
    That's easy quabbin, it's both. The economy is much much better and there's a clear line of sight to it getting better still but there's also little incentive to invest in bonds because investing is nothing if not relative.

    I agree with F&GT, the Fed isn't the reason for everything. Companies got fat and happy through to 2007 and then in 2008 and 2009, they had to get skinny quick. So they did and they realized they didn't need all that extra weight and voila, record profits. So the levels of the stock market are as real as any other levels.

    Have lower interest rates helped companies make better profits and also make stocks a more attractive investment? Yes, clearly. But if rates went up slowly but surely for the next 2 years, you'd still have relatively low rates and I'd bet you'd still have a rising stock market.

    Short term bumps to be sure but there's a long term trend starting that is foolish to ignore. Think the 1980s.
    Aug 26 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    Absent the mess the world is in, I agree that gold would be falling but it wouldn't be for no reason.

    It's because it would be overvalued and might be now, even with the turmoil going on.
    Aug 26 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market [View article]
    Small problem with this post and the idea in general.

    No one (and I mean NO ONE) can time the market.
    Aug 22 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Gold [View article]
    whowho, I am not at all a gold bug but what have you seen in 2014 on gold that I haven't and what makes you think it's on the way down to $1050? I don't necessarily disagree but it isn't from what I've seen in 2014 so far.

    It's up almost 6% in 2014 as at the close today.
    Aug 21 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Margin Debt Peaks May Indicate End Of Cyclical Bull Market [View article]
    I'm lost, how is this excellent research?

    Margin loans are based on a percentage of the market value of your portfolio. If you have $100 in your portfolio, you can borrow about $65. If that market value falls to $50, you can only borrow about $32.

    Of course margin debt rises and falls with market values!! How's that a genius conclusion?? It means nothing. I would expect to see a very close relationship between stock market levels and margin debt. That tells me nothing about when the next bear market is coming.

    Which isn't any time soon by the way.
    Aug 20 11:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Market In Equities Has A Long Way To Run [View article]
    You missed the most important one incomeyield.....how about just good old earnings per share?

    Essentially at an all-time high on the S&P 500 and up from about $15 at the height of the recession up to $102 for the last 12 months. Any chance at all that has something to do with the rally in equities?
    Aug 19 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Dow Overvalued? Comparing Historical Valuations With Fundamentals [View article]
    Dead on BJLMD, investing is nothing if not a relative exercise.
    Aug 19 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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