Imagine This Scenario for Earnings Estimates [View article]
Old Trader Your argument is exactly the same as Morgan Stanley's in its bearish call for stocks. See pragcap.com/analyzing-...
On Jul 24 08:39 AM Old Trader wrote:
> Given that analysts seem to be consistently a day late, and several > dollars short, and cut estimates too far the last time around, resulting > in the setting of a low bar, is it unreasonable to assume they will > err in the other direction on the next go-around? An excess of optimism > sets up the real possibilty of earnings misses for the next reporting > period, and very possibly the year.
Do California IOUs Carry an Implicit Guarantee from the Federal Government? [View article]
While whatever banks choose to invest in does not have an implicit guarantee, the banks themselves ARE implicitly guaranteed. I suspect that, since it's not politically acceptable for the government to directly guarantee California IOU's, the government has already directed its captive banks to invest aggressively in those IOU's. The banks will do exactly as they are told-just as they did in the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies. If the banks take losses on those "investments", it doesn't cost the banks anything...only the US taxpayer.
Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation [View article]
Hey Macro_Man: good comment. Is this you: macro-man.blogspot.com/ ...or should you change your handle?
On Jun 04 05:00 AM Macro_Man wrote:
> long Treasuries are becoming a crowded short. There is no one, it > seems that likes long U.S. Treasuries. I for one, like long U.S. > Treasuries...but have recently acquired only a small position and > am not adding to it. > > So, if something is this unpopular and sentiment so universally negative > and heavily shorted...there is a good chance that when it runs up...it > burns the shorts. I agree, that the supply seems limitless and that > is what many will point out. But.. > > Now, what can make it change direction...some indication from the > government that they are planning to cut down the size of the 30yr > going forward. maybe take out 2 or 3 reopenings. making interest > payments partly tax deductible. or just this rally running out of > steam in a couple of months. geopolitical events..including swine > flu. > > All I am saying is, when something is this unpopular...it is not > a good thing to short now. limited upside...a lot of quick downside
I Can't See Major Market Reversal Before Dow Reaches 10,000 [View article]
Dow hitting 10,000 is easy with irrational exuberance. The only thing that stands in the way is the Treasury's need to sell so much debt this summer. It seems right now to be an either-or situation, low Treasury yields and strong dollar...or Dow 10,000.
Louis Stanasolovich: Short Oil, Long Gold [View article]
To me expecting oil to go to $30 is a little extreme now...but, with the short term strength in the dollar and before recovery, to see $40 again seems plausible. However, gold seems to need to consolidate at present too... before advancing this summer.
Dow Drops a Bombshell; Turns in Profit [View article]
Let's hope Dow simply spins Dow Ag off to existing shareholders with a coincident new stock issuance going to Dow to shore it up...kind of like ATT/Lucent way back when...
Time for Transparency on Bailing Out the Bank Bondholders [View article]
I too agree. The major banks own each other's bonds and, of course pension funds and insurance companies own these bank's bonds. Nevertheless, all these entities should take a loss BEFORE the taxpayer does...it's the American way.
Capital One (COF): Q1 EPS of -$0.39 misses by $0.31. Revenue of $3.7B (-5.6%) vs. $4.17B. Adds $124.1M to allowance for loan losses in anticipation of higher expected charge-offs; sees 2009 charge-offs higher than the $8.6B it forecast last quarter. Shares -6.8% AH. (PR) [View news story]
As Zero Hedge says, the stock should be at $1000 tomorrow.
Imagine This Scenario for Earnings Estimates [View article]
Your argument is exactly the same as Morgan Stanley's in its bearish call for stocks.
See pragcap.com/analyzing-...
On Jul 24 08:39 AM Old Trader wrote:
> Given that analysts seem to be consistently a day late, and several
> dollars short, and cut estimates too far the last time around, resulting
> in the setting of a low bar, is it unreasonable to assume they will
> err in the other direction on the next go-around? An excess of optimism
> sets up the real possibilty of earnings misses for the next reporting
> period, and very possibly the year.
Do California IOUs Carry an Implicit Guarantee from the Federal Government? [View article]
Hedging Against ObamaCare: Potential Hedges Against Health Insurance Reform [View article]
A Socratic Dialogue: Fearing the Collapse of U.S. Treasury Bond Prices [View article]
The Proof That There Are No 'Green Shoots' [View article]
Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation [View article]
good comment.
Is this you:
macro-man.blogspot.com/
...or should you change your handle?
On Jun 04 05:00 AM Macro_Man wrote:
> long Treasuries are becoming a crowded short. There is no one, it
> seems that likes long U.S. Treasuries. I for one, like long U.S.
> Treasuries...but have recently acquired only a small position and
> am not adding to it.
>
> So, if something is this unpopular and sentiment so universally negative
> and heavily shorted...there is a good chance that when it runs up...it
> burns the shorts. I agree, that the supply seems limitless and that
> is what many will point out. But..
>
> Now, what can make it change direction...some indication from the
> government that they are planning to cut down the size of the 30yr
> going forward. maybe take out 2 or 3 reopenings. making interest
> payments partly tax deductible. or just this rally running out of
> steam in a couple of months. geopolitical events..including swine
> flu.
>
> All I am saying is, when something is this unpopular...it is not
> a good thing to short now. limited upside...a lot of quick downside
John Hussman: Market Internals Suggest Heightened Concern [View article]
Smart Money on Market Direction: Bears Caught Flat-Footed? [View article]
I Can't See Major Market Reversal Before Dow Reaches 10,000 [View article]
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets [View article]
My Oil Outlook [View article]
Louis Stanasolovich: Short Oil, Long Gold [View article]
Dow Drops a Bombshell; Turns in Profit [View article]
Time for Transparency on Bailing Out the Bank Bondholders [View article]
Capital One (COF): Q1 EPS of -$0.39 misses by $0.31. Revenue of $3.7B (-5.6%) vs. $4.17B. Adds $124.1M to allowance for loan losses in anticipation of higher expected charge-offs; sees 2009 charge-offs higher than the $8.6B it forecast last quarter. Shares -6.8% AH. (PR) [View news story]