J. D. Swampfox's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/342265/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/151129-imagine-this-scenario-for-earnings-estimates?source=feed#comment-600731 600731 Your argument is exactly the same as Morgan Stanley's in its bearish call for stocks.
See pragcap.com/analyzing-...


On Jul 24 08:39 AM Old Trader wrote:

> Given that analysts seem to be consistently a day late, and several
> dollars short, and cut estimates too far the last time around, resulting
> in the setting of a low bar, is it unreasonable to assume they will
> err in the other direction on the next go-around? An excess of optimism
> sets up the real possibilty of earnings misses for the next reporting
> period, and very possibly the year.]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 09:22:38 -0400 Your argument is exactly the same as Morgan Stanley's in its bearish call for stocks.
See pragcap.com/analyzing-...


On Jul 24 08:39 AM Old Trader wrote:

> Given that analysts seem to be consistently a day late, and several
> dollars short, and cut estimates too far the last time around, resulting
> in the setting of a low bar, is it unreasonable to assume they will
> err in the other direction on the next go-around? An excess of optimism
> sets up the real possibilty of earnings misses for the next reporting
> period, and very possibly the year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147014-do-california-ious-carry-an-implicit-guarantee-from-the-federal-government?source=feed#comment-574676 574676 Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:42:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143616-hedging-against-obamacare-potential-hedges-against-health-insurance-reform?source=feed#comment-550261 550261 Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:42:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143023-a-socratic-dialogue-fearing-the-collapse-of-u-s-treasury-bond-prices?source=feed#comment-545624 545624 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 19:33:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142733-the-proof-that-there-are-no-green-shoots?source=feed#comment-542369 542369 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:48:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141286-julian-robertson-bets-the-farm-on-inflation?source=feed#comment-532183 532183 good comment.
Is this you:
macro-man.blogspot.com/
...or should you change your handle?


On Jun 04 05:00 AM Macro_Man wrote:

> long Treasuries are becoming a crowded short. There is no one, it
> seems that likes long U.S. Treasuries. I for one, like long U.S.
> Treasuries...but have recently acquired only a small position and
> am not adding to it.
>
> So, if something is this unpopular and sentiment so universally negative
> and heavily shorted...there is a good chance that when it runs up...it
> burns the shorts. I agree, that the supply seems limitless and that
> is what many will point out. But..
>
> Now, what can make it change direction...some indication from the
> government that they are planning to cut down the size of the 30yr
> going forward. maybe take out 2 or 3 reopenings. making interest
> payments partly tax deductible. or just this rally running out of
> steam in a couple of months. geopolitical events..including swine
> flu.
>
> All I am saying is, when something is this unpopular...it is not
> a good thing to short now. limited upside...a lot of quick downside]]> Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:52:21 -0400 good comment.
Is this you:
macro-man.blogspot.com/
...or should you change your handle?


On Jun 04 05:00 AM Macro_Man wrote:

> long Treasuries are becoming a crowded short. There is no one, it
> seems that likes long U.S. Treasuries. I for one, like long U.S.
> Treasuries...but have recently acquired only a small position and
> am not adding to it.
>
> So, if something is this unpopular and sentiment so universally negative
> and heavily shorted...there is a good chance that when it runs up...it
> burns the shorts. I agree, that the supply seems limitless and that
> is what many will point out. But..
>
> Now, what can make it change direction...some indication from the
> government that they are planning to cut down the size of the 30yr
> going forward. maybe take out 2 or 3 reopenings. making interest
> payments partly tax deductible. or just this rally running out of
> steam in a couple of months. geopolitical events..including swine
> flu.
>
> All I am saying is, when something is this unpopular...it is not
> a good thing to short now. limited upside...a lot of quick downside]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139610-john-hussman-market-internals-suggest-heightened-concern?source=feed#comment-517916 517916 Tue, 26 May 2009 11:03:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138914-smart-money-on-market-direction-bears-caught-flat-footed?source=feed#comment-512697 512697 Thu, 21 May 2009 09:43:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137050-i-can-t-see-major-market-reversal-before-dow-reaches-10-000?source=feed#comment-500037 500037 Tue, 12 May 2009 07:00:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133456-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-493799 493799 Thu, 07 May 2009 11:02:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134860-my-oil-outlook?source=feed#comment-488083 488083 Sun, 03 May 2009 21:31:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134853-louis-stanasolovich-short-oil-long-gold?source=feed#comment-487825 487825 Sun, 03 May 2009 16:40:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134857-dow-drops-a-bombshell-turns-in-profit?source=feed#comment-487812 487812 Sun, 03 May 2009 16:30:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131899-time-for-transparency-on-bailing-out-the-bank-bondholders?source=feed#comment-472352 472352 Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:00:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/22218?source=feed#comment-471716 471716 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:35:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132023-too-many-panicked-moves?source=feed#comment-471112 471112 Buy when it's below 800, sell when it's above 800, sounds reasonable...until new "floors and ceilings" are made.]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 10:50:58 -0400 Buy when it's below 800, sell when it's above 800, sounds reasonable...until new "floors and ceilings" are made.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/22176?source=feed#comment-471023 471023 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 10:08:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131597-derivatives-a-700-trillion-bubble-waiting-to-burst?source=feed#comment-469062 469062 Just for your info: There's a great post on Zero Hedge back in January about how bond related swaps can go wrong and did for Merrill...
zerohedge.blogspot.com...


On Apr 19 10:36 AM Bruce Vanderveen wrote:

> I think AIG showed us how dangerous CDSs can be. The public ended
> up bailing out AIG to the tune of over $100 billion, preventing systemic
> meltdown of the financial system -- or so we are told. I'm taking
> it on faith there are no more AIG's out there. Right? We must never
> again have taxpayers responsible for private company missed calls.
>
>
> Interest swaps are some 82% of the $700 trillion notional derivative
> market. Most consider interest swaps to be relatively benign. I'm
> wondering though: how would this market react to a rapid increase
> of interest rates, as some are predicting, off current lows . Has
> anyone researched this?
>
> We need more intelligent discussion of the dangers, both real and
> imagined, of derivative markets. AIG was an expensive wake up call.
> It amazes me how little knowledgeable economists seem willing to
> discuss these markets. AIG has show us this is not just an academic
> subject.]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 21:22:59 -0400 Just for your info: There's a great post on Zero Hedge back in January about how bond related swaps can go wrong and did for Merrill...
zerohedge.blogspot.com...


On Apr 19 10:36 AM Bruce Vanderveen wrote:

> I think AIG showed us how dangerous CDSs can be. The public ended
> up bailing out AIG to the tune of over $100 billion, preventing systemic
> meltdown of the financial system -- or so we are told. I'm taking
> it on faith there are no more AIG's out there. Right? We must never
> again have taxpayers responsible for private company missed calls.
>
>
> Interest swaps are some 82% of the $700 trillion notional derivative
> market. Most consider interest swaps to be relatively benign. I'm
> wondering though: how would this market react to a rapid increase
> of interest rates, as some are predicting, off current lows . Has
> anyone researched this?
>
> We need more intelligent discussion of the dangers, both real and
> imagined, of derivative markets. AIG was an expensive wake up call.
> It amazes me how little knowledgeable economists seem willing to
> discuss these markets. AIG has show us this is not just an academic
> subject.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131565-will-the-s-p-trend-up-continue?source=feed#comment-469007 469007 Sun, 19 Apr 2009 20:22:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130891-mark-to-market-changes-looking-ahead?source=feed#comment-463323 463323 Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:11:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130582-amex-shares-could-double-barron-s?source=feed#comment-460954 460954 Sun, 12 Apr 2009 20:15:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21561?source=feed#comment-458325 458325
How can the bond market be saying that when the stock market is rallying? Well, if I have to pick, I think I'll go with the bonds' forecast just to be safe...]]> Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:24:26 -0400
How can the bond market be saying that when the stock market is rallying? Well, if I have to pick, I think I'll go with the bonds' forecast just to be safe...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130046-how-do-you-justify-taking-on-more-risk-project-no-losses?source=feed#comment-456259 456259 Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:21:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129697-creditors-should-suffer-too?source=feed#comment-453789 453789 www.federalreserve.gov...) I think the Treasury is afraid that if we make foreign banks take (say) a 30% haircut on a few weak banks' bonds, then it will snowball so that all the US banks will have to take a similar haircut on all bank bonds, both foreign and domestic. The same is true for other domestic holders of US bank bonds, like pension funds and insurance companies. If an insurance company has to take a 30% haircut on its portfolio of bank bonds in an already stressed market, they may go insolvent too. I think the bondholders should take some pain too, but the important phrase here is "the treasury is afraid"...]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:53:32 -0400 www.federalreserve.gov...) I think the Treasury is afraid that if we make foreign banks take (say) a 30% haircut on a few weak banks' bonds, then it will snowball so that all the US banks will have to take a similar haircut on all bank bonds, both foreign and domestic. The same is true for other domestic holders of US bank bonds, like pension funds and insurance companies. If an insurance company has to take a 30% haircut on its portfolio of bank bonds in an already stressed market, they may go insolvent too. I think the bondholders should take some pain too, but the important phrase here is "the treasury is afraid"...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129562-has-your-bank-failed-didn-t-think-so?source=feed#comment-452618 452618 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 16:30:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21244?source=feed#comment-452594 452594 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 15:53:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129346-more-market-swings-are-on-the-way?source=feed#comment-450829 450829 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 10:57:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21177?source=feed#comment-450213 450213 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 22:09:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21180?source=feed#comment-450206 450206 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 22:01:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128367-how-much-does-size-matter-a-performance-survey-of-10-large-cap-stocks?source=feed#comment-444604 444604 See: www.nakedcapitalism.co...]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 21:31:24 -0400 See: www.nakedcapitalism.co...]]>