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thirunagar

thirunagar
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  • Why India Has Embarked On A Long-Term Bull Market - Part 2 [View article]
    There is only one risk for the whole country?
    What about the ballooning fiscal deficit and CAD?
    What about geo political escalations? India is bound by Pakistan and China and the relations have not been exactly cordial off late.
    India imports 80% of its crude oil. Any price shock will have huge consequences on the twin deficits.

    The biggest of them all - Everyone knows about Modi's election! Markets have already rallied 60-65% from their lows last August and the Rupee has appreciated 15% during the same time. So a Dollar investor contemplating investing in India has already lost the first 80% of the rally. It is much worse for anyone whose base currency is Euro, Yen or other major currencies which are themselves down against the dollar. For them, the fist doubling has already been missed. This is just for the market averages. The mid cap and small cap spaces have rallied much more albeit from serious undervalution. The trade balance has started to widen again and over the long term, Rupee can only go down. Foreign investors have to take this currency risk into account too.
    Nov 19, 2014. 04:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Dollar Gains On Upbeat Fed [View article]
    We are seeing a plethora of connected wearables like health bands from Microsoft, Nike and smartwatches from Apple, Sony, Samsung etc jostling for the wrist real estate. So I was just wondering if this is the end of traditional wrist watches. What do you guys think? Are the traditional watchmakers under mortal threat? Which one will be preferred by the masses in say.. 10 years?


    I am not asking about the Pateks and Vacherons of this world. They will always find takers. My question is about the entry and mid level luxury/lifestyle players. Tissot, Hamilton, Longines, Tag, Seiko, Breitlings etc.. They are priced bang in the wearables territory (or maybe a little higher). I am also aware that enthusiasts will have multiple watches for different occassions one of which maybe a smartwatch but the average person may have only one or two.
    Oct 30, 2014. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Asleep - When Will It Awaken? [View article]
    Gold has been stuck in a 15% range (1200 to 1400) for almost year and a half now. Speculative interest is driven out; investment demand is almost dead. Producers and end users are the only guys left in the market. Trying to trade it directionally is beyond useless.

    Gold will come out of its deep slumber when there are no more than one article on gold per week on SA and investing community is too embarrassed to even talk about it. I guess it will take another year of prices moving nowhere to achieve that!
    Oct 21, 2014. 08:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To The Fed's Critics: Deflation, Rather Than Inflation Was Always The Bigger Risk [View article]
    Nice article.


    SHU, Can you please decodify liquidity trap for me? I have never been able to grasp the idea entirely. All the explanations given (including explanations given by you in your previous articles) have too much jargon for laymen to understand. Thanks!
    Oct 17, 2014. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Global Markets In Decline Again [View article]
    Hi WSB, India is down 1.3% at 25999. Please review.
    Oct 16, 2014. 06:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Saudi Prepared For Crude To Stay Low - Report [View article]
    With WTI and Brent both diving into bear market territory, I just want to get the pulse of SA readers on how they think this bear market will pan out.

    Please give your opinion on how long this bear market will last:
    1. It will end before 2014 ends
    2. 2015
    3. 2016
    4. 2017 or beyond

    Where do you see WTI bottoming out
    1. Above $75
    2. $60-$75
    3. $50-$60
    4. Below $50
    Oct 13, 2014. 06:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Amazon Introduces New Kindle Lineup [View article]
    Indian market (Sensex) closed at 27112, up 1.8%. It closes at 6 AM ET (hence closed when WSB was up). Please check your source.
    Sep 18, 2014. 06:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi: Beware Rising High Yield Spreads [View article]
    Yes, high yield bonds are almost always the first place you can spot impending trouble. But the problem is that it can give a lot of false positives.
    Aug 19, 2014. 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Crude Setting Up For Something Big? [View article]
    Oil price moves lower, lot of marginal producers particularly in shale and canadian tar sands would go kaput. Shale drllers are already feasting on junk debt according to Bloomberg.


    Oil prices moves higher, economies go kaput promptly bringing down prices. There are a lot of studies in this area and a simple rule of thumb is that if an economy spends more than 4% of its GDP in oil, it faces a recession. Of course it varies from country to country.


    Thats is why we are seeing oil price skating on this ice between 90 and 130 for almost 6 years now. This is such an unprecedently low volatility never seen in any commodity or asset class.


    Something got to give and just like Chriss, I believe it will be to the upside. Where will it stop? No one knows and anyone putting out a number is just guessing but I would say $170-$180 is where enough economies will have sand thrown into their economic machines. Will it be a swift jump in 10-20 trading sessions or will it be a creeping upmove over a couple of years with invariable corrections? Again no one knows.
    Jul 11, 2014. 06:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: GoPro IPO, Valeant Confidence, Condensate Exports [View article]
    Now that US has started exporting unfinished petro products, the WTI - Brent spread will narrow. Atleast it wont reach the absurd levels of 27-28 bucks again.
    Jun 25, 2014. 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Google's Nest Apps, Argentine Court Stay, E-cigarette Craze [View article]
    The tobacco bond market link is erroneous. Please fix it. Thanks!
    Jun 24, 2014. 06:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India's Role In The Gold Market [View article]
    18000 ton figure is IMO a gross underestimation. This number has been circulated around for years now. Around 10000 tonnes would have flowed into India from 2000 itself. Padmanabhaswamy temple and Tirumala temple together are estimated to hold atleast 1000 tonnes. My guess would be somewhere around 35-40K tonnes.
    Jun 20, 2014. 07:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New record low for high-yield, but spreads could still come in [View news story]
    HYG's yield is 5.4 & JNK is at 5.6 according to Seeking Alpha but this news item and the Barron's article linked here says both are sub 5%. What am I missing? Can someone help me out?
    Jun 18, 2014. 02:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ex-litigation, BofA beats forecasts [View news story]
    The title cracks me up! So EBIDTA now becomes EBLIDTA for most banks... and BP.
    Apr 16, 2014. 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Brent WTI spread is down to 4 bucks now.
    Apr 11, 2014. 06:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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