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  • North American Palladium Likely A Multi-Bagger [View article]
    Nice article.

    Anybody have a take on how the 2017 debentures would fare in a worst case scenario of bankruptcy? They are currently trading at 1/2 price to issue. Conversion price of $2.90 would seem unattainable so I am looking at maximum upside of $106 on the debentures and interest payments at 12% of committed capital for approx 3 years.

    If settlement value on the debentures would be 30 cents on the dollar or better I think this might be an interesting play.

    To note though Brookfield has inserted itself ahead of the debenture holders so the $167M will need to be cleared before anything can go to the $43M in debentures.

    Jan 3 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impossible Situation For North American Palladium [View article]
    Hey - Chris - well argued position. Also kudos to you and the discussion group for enhancing the original position. If all boards and discussions could happen in this collaborative and civil manner we would all benefit.
    Sep 27 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouthGobi: High Country Risk And Unprofitable Operations; 35% Overvalued Compared To Other Coal Companies [View article]
    Nice evaluation - the only caveat to your methodology that I might add is that SouthGobi didn't start mining until August 2011 and were not completely ramped up until December. Based on that you might want to adjust your production numbers up to reflect actual production capabilities. I would suspect maybe 3 - 4 times higher than you used in your calculation.

    That being said SGQ is as high risk as I like to dabble in and can see your $.75 price target as within a reasonable range of possibilities.
    Sep 27 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hewlett-Packard, The Dow's Best Performer YTD, A Buy? [View article]
    Nek - what assets is HP developing in the 3D printing space?

    That would be a real driver but I have not been able to see anything tangible from them on the front.
    Aug 9 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment