kagame

Sina Q2 Preview: Focus Media Acquisition by Year End

Simply amazing post by me also I would like to add. Sometimes I amaze even my amazing self.

Sina Q2 Preview: Focus Media Acquisition by Year End

Amazing detail about the websites inclusion of an FMCN product. Do you have any more details? And FMCN priced down at $9!

Still an amazing opportunity.

An Opportunity to Profit from Focus Media / Sina Transaction

Wow more manipulation. Rumors that contradict company statements issued the day before, gotta love em.

An Opportunity to Profit from Focus Media / Sina Transaction

Absurd to think they would keep the shares. Also, the price of FMCN dropped the most dramatically AFTER the merger was announced. It had a stronger than expected quarter and gave decent guidance, things are improving for the company.

I would think FMCN is worth more without a merger, the uncertainty involved is holding the price down to near cash value. Remember FMCN has no debt, a ton of cash on hand, and assets such as ALLYES whose values are as of yet ignored by the market. Assuming some (even small or slow) global recovery is in effect and the Chinese economic stimulus is as good as it sounds, this is an absurdly cheap stock.

Especially after the afternoon sell off to $7, where we hit strong support.

Five Cash-Rich Companies Worth a Look

Anyone have any insight as to why FMCN isnt trading at the $10 a share it is worth in SINA shares alone, not even to count the stub FMCN company that will remain in existence with 50% of the companies assets and a quarter to a third of its revenue?

Even if there is a 25% risk of the merger not going through I would think that FMCN should trade at or near $10.

Cramer's Lightning Round - Daktronics Down in the Dumps (4/7/09)

Yeah FMCN is reallly risky here near its 52 wk low, with a pending merger making it worth double its current price.

Especially compared to when it was trading at absurdly high multiples and about to crash.

Cramer is such a joke with these weak calls.

There's Still Hope for Focus Media After Sina Acquisition

So apparently the merger shares would count against options.

So the simply play here is long FMCN, write calls. I would short SINA but its rallying harder than FMCN, there is no correlation there right now.

Why is the marker so irrational about this? Theres plenty of info out there that should allow people/funds/hedgies to buy on this misvaluation.

Focus Media / Sina Transaction: Think Outside the Box to Make Profits

Allyes will be part of the stub, and will IPO for a huge profit for FMCN. FMCN is currently valued at less then the value of the SINA shares one will recieve for holding FMCN.

And you want to short it? Short a stock already at zero?

Stop obsessing over accounting.

Sina Can't Catch a Break, Even After Focus Media Deal

FMCN valuation is just bonkers right now. Post deal the residual company is priced into the stock for $0 right now. Big fat goose egg.

Thats free money for FMCN longs. SINA just needs to not collapse post CC and I'm loading up FMCN, and may go short SINA also.

There's Still Hope for Focus Media After Sina Acquisition

FMCN also keep a big chunk of their cash, something like 100 million. There is no way the stock should trade below $10. The Sina shares alone, are as of market close today, going to be worth 7.6 a share. If Sina gets a pop back to $23 from their conference call, which occurs the 27th, it could be a dollar more a share for FMCN's valuation.

These are FREE new FMCN shares post merger.

My strategy:

Currently, sell March 20 7.5 FMCN puts.
Currently, sell March 20 7.5 FMCN calls.

Approaching CC:

*Close short put position.
*Increase short call position!!!; as the value of FMCN shares will plummet post merger/SINA share distribution. Is there anything I'm missing here? Seems like a slam dunk and the KEY point missed by all SeekingAlpha analysts. Why does no one recommend shorting FMCN? It doesnt obligate you to also be short SINA shares post merger, does it?
*Long FMCN stock for SINA shares, cover those calls we wrote.

On CC:
Short Sina shares if over $21 in price, assuming FMCN still at $7.5. Simple equation to find fair value for Sina shares based on FMCN shares, .365 SINA for each FMCN.

Long Term:
Evaulate new FMCN shares for true value, probably close partial position and freeroll on possible comeback.

Any questions on my option strategy? Clarification on the Short FMCN = Short SINA post merger issue would be appreciated. :)