Patient player

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Excellent analysis. I like the brevity, factual study, chart based conclusions. But the last quote, "There’s a time to play and a time to sit" is probably what will keep you sane ...and safe.

Peter Thiel's Hedge Fund Troubles

I think the author of post has proven a point that individual shrewd investors have done well through their time tested techniques although he has a Phd. This is a simple and relevant learning.


On Nov 09 11:24 PM AJB7 wrote:

> I'm not sure what you mean when you say "what chance do the rest
> of us have". I run my portfolio pretty much on classical bread and
> butter hedge fund principles and while I haven't really made any
> money this year, I haven't lost anything either. First, you run your
> quanitative risk/reward screen on the universe of securities and
> sectors every day. The more bullish selections you find the more
> you become 100% invested with a higher long/short ratio. When you
> don't find as many bullish selections you move more into cash and
> lower the long/short ratio moving towards market neutral for the
> remainder. By the begining of Sept I was 75% in cash with the invested
> portion net market neutral. Since then I've been mostly out of the
> market entirely except for some long dollar and treasury positions
> and a few select stocks. I probably will miss the great turn at the
> bottom, since I don't try to predict market action, but whenever
> that happens I will be getting long for the next cycle soon enough.
> Although I do have a Ph.D (and I think Taleb mentions one of my books
> in his bibliography) this really isn't rocket science.