ikkyu

On Starbucks' New Low: Not Writing Call Options At This Price

Thanks Bill. Fair enough. Although, i think you are giving up some nice yield.

Time decay can actually be maximized by going further out of the money on longer dated options. You could self OTM options with two months out and roll/resell with 30 days to go and minimize your chances of getting exercised. Why not include implied volatility in your list of fundamental variables:
www.ivolatility.com/op...;R=0&top_looku...

best wishes from osaka,
john

On Starbucks' New Low: Not Writing Call Options At This Price

Just so i am clear... Why aren't you writing call options? You expect a bounce? Or you are planning on bailing? (in which case you could bail by writing deep ITM options)

It looks to be slightly below its average I.V. of around 27%. Early may would have been the best time to sell calls. I think your analysis seems well thought out. But for myself, i wouldn't use fundemental analysis to time the sale of option premia. Your analysis is rougly on a year-long basis, but you can sell premia at monthly intervals or even less. In that short of time frame, you F.A. will not offer much to market timing, IMHO.

Cheers,
john

Small Investors: Beating the Market

Nice work! I have been thinking about this article for several days and reading up on behavioral finance. I think you have well outlined where the edges are. Maybe a few more:

-Ability to concentrate postions
-Ability to hedge smaller postions in the exchange market: hedging concentrated positions in small caps with options is a potent edge that has two layers of credit protection.

Cheers from Osaka,
john

Volatility Near Historical Lows: Good Time to Buy Portfolio Insurance?

Mr Kang,

Thanks for this. Addtionally, the put/call ratio is at a 6 month low. Short interest is rising but well below its all time peak of several weeks ago. I think everyone is gun-shy form previous short attempts!

I find that 20 period bollinger bands around VIX/VXN are very useful to show the relative vola of vola.

Cheers,
john

Why This Market's Fairy Tale Can't Last Forever

Holy cow. Please change your photo. The positive smile is totally inappropriate for these comments.
cheers,
john

Embracing the Market's Volatility: My Investment Grocery List

Thanks for your post David.

I respect your approach. For me, it makes more sense to pick your (actually probably my) 1 or 2 fastest horses and hedge judiciously. less risk, greater reward! As for living life, I am with you there hombre.

Best wishes from osaka,
john

Embracing the Market's Volatility: My Investment Grocery List

Greetings,

Doesn't 30+ stocks start to replicate an index? Where is the edge there? Also, why do you dismiss hedging as a "ploy"? It works well for Buffet.

Cheers,
john

Why Are Emerging Market Prices So Volatile?

That was an extremely helpful explanation.
Thanks!
john

So You Want To Invest Like Buffett? Here's An Easy Trick

nicely done! excellent tip....

Cheers,
john

Crocs: Ugly, But Appealing

The one thing your analysis doesn't consider is if these shoes will remain fashionable. It is not simply a matter of supply and demand. They may well go the way of Swatch watches and moon boots....

Cheers,
john

Assessing The Clean Energy ETF

This is an interesting, original commentary, PBW as sort of a energy-sentiment index. There is a major volitility loss in that issue and it appears to be in consolidation.

Cheers,
john

Thinking Contrary to the Crowd: An Approach to Investing

Nice Job! Right on the trend, wrong at both ends...

Mark Hulbert should read your points.

cheers,
john

Falling Oil Prices Are Ultimately Positive For Stocks

Greetings,

I would not dispute the results of your findings, but rather the originality. Texts such as John Murphy's excellent "Intermarket Technical Analysis," written more that 15 years ago, describe such relationships in great detail.

best wishes,
john

Utilizing ETF Puts: A Different Approach to Portfolio Protection

Greetings.
Your comments are worthwhile. It amazes me how "sophisticated" investors still shy away form the use of options in portfolio design. The only two things that might be added to your treatment is that 1.) your intial portfolio selection would probably be altered if you were going to employ options and 2.) options are relatively "cheap" now, so postponing the hedge a few weeks or a month could prove expensive.

With #1, you find yourself seeking volatility rather than shying away from it and concentrating one's portfolio rather than diversifying it. Adding options as an afterthought is not going to be nearly as effective as designing the portfolio for use with options.

get a few thoughts...

cheers,
john