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richbar

richbar
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  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    Everyone and his mother thought that this would be a blowout quarter and it was. Even Blair. With pent up demand for the larger screen phones, the holiday season, and other new product offerings, it was a no brainer. But the real issue is what growth will be once the dust settles. This question should be answered by late this year. There is no question in my mind that F1Q16 results will not match F1Q15 performance. The stock should set new highs during the first half, but sell off as this becomes more evident.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Longer-Term Headwinds Make Blowout Quarter A Tough Act To Follow [View article]
    It won't hit 140 in less than 4 years, if at all.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    See Cincinnatus' comment below. The huge quarter was mainly the result of the rush to upgrade to the 6/6+. Market saturation will occur late this year. Fiscal 1Q16 will be down from F1Q15.
    Jan 28, 2015. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Winning The Profit Battle, Losing The Smartphone War [View article]
    This debate will only be settled one way or another later this year. I don't know anyone who didn't think that this would be a blowout quarter. With the holiday season, all the new releases, pent up demand for larger screens, expansion in China, etc., it was a given. The question going forward is what the numbers will look like once most of the current 6/6+ demand is satisfied. One can't extrapolate the blowout results. They are a one time occurrence. The revenue and earnings records for F1Q15 should last for several years until the next major release lures most users to upgrade again.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    I'm going to sell my house and rent and put my entire net worth in Apple. It should hit 1000 (and have a $5+ trillion market cap) by the time I'm ready to retire. It will keep going up until the last pigmy in the rain forest has bought his 6+.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Couldn't Apple Double Its Dividend? [View article]
    The problem with your thesis is that forecasts for revenues and net income over the next three years are much too high. Yes, 2015 will be a blockbuster year with net income setting a record. But there won't be much growth in 2016 and net income will likely be flat. And 2017 will depend upon another upgrade cycle to reestablish growth. So Apple is being conservative in its payout, and rightly so.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have Concerns Regarding American Capital Agency After The Dividend Announcement [View article]
    Another article that really doesn't add much. Scott Kennedy does excellent analysis in his many articles. He is projecting the following for Q4:

    earnings loss of ($1.09/share)
    other comprehensive income of $1.66/share
    net comprehensive income of $0.57/share

    Net income doesn't cover the $0.66/share dividend, and with continuing declines in the 10 year, spread income will continue to decrease. I feel that there is a strong possibility that the dividend will be cut in a few months, hence the weakness in the stock despite increases in BV.
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Victim Of Its Own Success? [View article]
    Rather than concentrating on a quarter or two, it could be more beneficial to look at yearly revenues and net income a year or two out. I suspect after a blowout 2015, 2016 will be relatively flat on revenues and down on net income. This happened in 2013 and 2014, following a blowout 2012. I feel this cycle is likely after each launch, as most iphone users upgrade during the first year. We shall see if this happens again.
    Jan 15, 2015. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Becoming The Next IBM? [View article]
    Good article. I agree with other commentors that total R&D spending is more meaningful than spending as a percent of revenues.
    Jan 8, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How iPhone Demand Could Impact Apple's Q2 Guidance [View article]
    There's no manipulation. It sold off because the consensus is that growth will slow later in 2015. The problem is that the bulk of revenues and earnings come from the iphone segment. Many will have upgraded by late 2015 and won't again until the next major launch. Then what? A slowing of sales and earnings. The market is anticipating this, i.e., a peak in revenue and earnings in 2015 and then a flattening of the growth rate in 2016.
    Jan 7, 2015. 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Should Think Twice About 2015 [View article]
    My own feeling is that Apple will rally to set a new high in the 120s with the blowout earnings report later this month. And the next quarter will also be very good. But as guidance weakens later this year and it becomes evident that growth has stalled, I believe the stock will sell off. My target is 95. I wouldn't short it. Just play it for a trade on the earnings report and then get out.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency's Recent BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 2 [View article]
    Scott, I'd like to hear your view on what mREITs will face in terms of dividends and BV if long rates continue to decline, say to the 1.5% range for the 10-year. And when the Fed starts raising short rates, this could really put a damper on spread income.
    Jan 6, 2015. 02:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple 2015 Outlook: Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    I see the stock peaking in the 120s during the first half before correcting in the second half as it becomes evident that growth is stalling. Why this opinion? If you look at net income for the past 3 years, it peaked in 2012 at $41.3B, then dropped to $36.6B in 2013 then recovered somewhat to $39.4B in 2014. Buybacks helped EPS and the stock price. I see the same happening now. Net income should set a record for 2015 at $42-43B, but fall off to around $40B in 2016. When this becomes evident during the second half of 2015, the stock should sell off substantially.

    The problem is the absence of a substantial recurring revenue stream. With each new iphone launch, there is a jump in net income, but the following year or two until the next launch, net income drops. The iwatch and ipay won't make up for this.

    With Apple earning in the low $40 billions, its NPV is around $500-550B. This includes repatriated cash and investments less debt. With a 5.7B share count expected at the end of 2015 from continuing buybacks, fair value is $88-96/share. My price target is 95.
    Jan 3, 2015. 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Will Be Apple's Year: Raising Price Target To $174 [View article]
    Alex, your projections are absurd. Apple will have a great current quarter and a good 2015. Revenues of $200-205 B, net margin of 21%, net income of $42-43B, and a $20 B buyback should improve EPS to $7.20-7.40. With 2015 growth of 12%, and with a P/E of 15, the PEG is 1.25 and the stock is fairly valued at the current price. I expect the stock to probably peak in the 120s in the first half and then fall back in the second half as it becomes evident that growth is stalling.
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:33 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Provides Some Sage Words On Gilead Sciences [View article]
    What could adversely impact the positive analyst outlooks? More competition? More deals with pbms? A price war? Gild was in a consolidation phase in the 100-110 range for about four months before the recent selloff as it waited to see how their HCV franshise played out. It has nearly clawed back now into the lower part of this range. AbbVie's deal with Express Scripts is still an unknown since the pricing is not public information. My feeling is that AbbVie's discount is substantial since they have an inferior product. Time will tell how Gild's business and stock price is affected.
    Dec 30, 2014. 04:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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