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richbar

richbar
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  • Gilead Versus Celgene: Value Play Versus Reinvestment Opportunity [View article]
    Good article and likewise for comments. I think that the large uncertainty in what Gilead's earnings will be over the next few years (based on the factors mentioned by others) is what is holding the current price down. Everyone is expecting a great 1Q report, and I wouldn't necessarily think that the stock will jump on that news. What the market likes is a steady upward progression of revenues and earnings (and the ability to project both). It will take a year or more to get there, if at all. Until then, us believers will have to be patient. GILD is my largest holding, with CELG a close second.
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple TV Is Fighting For Survival [View article]
    Sueanrick, Brian White of CF has no idea how to analyze stocks. His reasoning on CNBC today was fraught with errors. He is mainly interested in getting media attention, as he wants to project a $1 trillion market cap. He had price targets of 888 and then 1111 (pre-split basis) a few years ago. The absurdity of those numbers show his need for attention,
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13% Dividend CYS Investments' Strategy Is Looking Better After The Dovish Fed Announcement [View article]
    David, I take exception to your last statement. I look for the yield curve to flatten when the Fed Funds rate eventually rises, with long rates going up slower than short rates. My reasoning is simply that the rise in short rates would dampen the economy, limiting the rise in long rates. The flattening of the yield curve would reduce the net interest rate spread, reducing spread income for the mREITs. There would also be a hit to book value due to rising long rates, the amount depending on hedging. The effect of all of this would be dividend cuts and BV decreases. I see the discount to BV not being reduced significantly.
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene: An Absolutely Excellent Company With An Absolutely Terrible Valuation [View article]
    Tim, what are you talking about? S&P projects Celgene's EPS to be $4.75 for 2015, a double from 2014. The 27 other analysts polled by Morningstar have 2015 EPS estimates ranging from $4.61 to $5.19.

    You state: "Investors expect Celgene to make $4.25 per share in profits five years from now." This is incorrect.

    The S&P and Morningstar 2015 EPS estimates result in a P/E in the mid 20s, not 50. You're calculating the P/E on trailing earnings which is absurd.

    The PEG is around 1 for their anticipated 5-year growth of 25% and indicates that the stock is reasonably valued at its current price.
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:50 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Vs. Reality With Apple's Stock Buyback [View article]
    Good article Tim. I also believe Apple will continue to have a hard time growing net income beyond the $40 billions for the foreseeable future. Maybe in the mid $40 billions this record-setting year, but likely flat or even lower for the next few years. The buybacks (e.g., financial engineering) is one way that they can achieve EPS growth. Organic earnings growth would be better, but it remains to be seen how their other recent product launches will fare.

    The DCF value of the company assuming long term net income of say $45 billion annually is around $550 billion, significantly lower than today's market cap. (This is calculated by discounting a $45 billion net income stream using a 10% discount factor giving a present value of $450 billion for the income stream, and adding the value of repatriated cash and investments less debt of around $100 billion.) The $550 billion enterprise value results in a share price of $98 when divided by the 5.625 billion shares expected by the end of 2015.

    I expect that later this year the market will recognize that growth is stalling and that there will be a selloff in the shares.
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Pre-Bust Valuation, Is Apple Getting Ahead Of Itself? [View article]
    At last a rational AAPL article. I'm with the author and expect the shares to sell off later this year as it becomes evident that growth is stalling.
    Mar 19, 2015. 10:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene Poised For Growth, 41% Upside [View article]
    It's all about growth. Celgene's 2014 EPS was $2.39. S&P projects their 2015 EPS at $4.75, essentially a double. At the current $121 stock price, the P/E is 25 based on S&P's 2015 EPS projection. Morningstar projects their 5-year growth at 25%, resulting in a PEG of 1.0, and suggesting the stock is currently fairly valued.
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    Rrosey 2, you're on a cliff. If I were you I would switch to biotech or at least diversify some of your AAPL holding.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    Yeah Happy Penguin, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    Posting in caps doesn't make a comment more credible.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    Let's see where things stand toward the latter part of this year. If MB turns out to be right will you offer him an apology?
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    MB has consistently said that Apple will continue its strong iphone6 momentum for this quarter and possibly next quarter, but sell off later this year as demand for the phone wanes. What the stock does on a daily basis is meaningless.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corporation Is A Strong Buy, The Discount To Book Value Is Compelling [View article]
    I believe that the yield curve will flatten once short rates start going up since long rates will likely go down. The reason - higher short rates will dampen growth and temper inflation expectations. The flatter yield curve and hence lower spread that mREITs have to work with will put pressure on dividends. Book value though is likely to be stable under this scenario.

    Having over half of your retirement portfolio in mREITs is too risky. I currently have 13% of my portfolio in AGNC and hesitate to increase that amount. In 2013 I had double that amount, paid the price, and learned my lesson.
    Mar 16, 2015. 09:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    Even without the negative impact of the dollar's strength, Apple's revenue and earnings growth is likely to decrease significantly later this year. The recent weakness surprised me, as I thought the stock would be strong at least through the next earnings report.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unexpected Bullish Catalysts From Apple's Latest Event: Implications For The Stock [View article]
    A P/E of 22 and a 2016 price target of $200 is unreasonable based on Apple's long term growth rate. Although 2015 will be a blockbuster year, YOY growth in 2016 will be small if any. I expect long term EPS growth to only be single digit, with about half of that coming from buybacks. Assuming 6-8% long term growth, the P/E is more likely to be 14-15 or so, giving a PEG of 2-2.5. The high PEG would indicate slight overvaluation at present. I look for a selloff later this year as the slowing growth rate becomes apparent.
    Mar 11, 2015. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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