Seeking Alpha

richbar

richbar
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View richbar's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Recent Retreat In Valero Energy's Stock Price Offers An Excellent Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Good article Ari. Jacksalmon, the only "crap" is the content and reasoning in your comments.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Price Dip Is A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    The Fast Money traders made the point not too long ago that WTI will eventually converge with Brent, and when it does, VLO will sell off hard since their cost is tied to lower priced WTI. I don't think that anticipation of this was a reason for the selloff over the past 3 days. The stock just got too far above its STMA, and the baby was thrown out with the bath water.
    Aug 24, 2015. 09:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy Before Earnings, Not Before Product Releases - A Statistical Study On Apple Products [View article]
    Statistically you may be correct, but the next earnings report will likely ignite a selloff. Why? Because they are unlikely to guide higher for F1Q16 revenues vs. F1Q15's record $74.6 B.
    Aug 22, 2015. 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    I've also had a year-end price target of around $100 for some time now. My reasoning: I think profits will peak this year at $53 B, and fall into the high $40 B range for the next several years with little to no growth. The DCF value for a multiyear constant income stream is around 10 times the annual value, say $480 B. Add to this their cash less repatriation taxes and debt. That's around $100 B. Adding the two, the fair value is around $580 B. With the 5.7 B current share count, that's about $100/share. Continuing buybacks next year and thereafter should push up the share price somewhat, but the bottom line is that 2015 will probably represent an earnings peak, at least for the next several years.
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    You don't get deleted for challenging with facts. You get deleted for being abusive.
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Presented With Strong Entry Point Into American Capital Agency As Interest Rate Hike Looms Large In September [View article]
    I don't concur that spreads will widen when the Fed increases the FFR. I'm concerned that a flattening of the yield curve is likely because of the dampening effect higher short rates will have on consumer and business activity. So I think that spread income will decline and that will likely lead to dividend reductions. Reducing leverage to protect book value as you recommend, will only further reduce spread income.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Competition In China Upset The Apple Cart? [View article]
    Good article Michael. I would note that the technicals for Apple are currently very bearish, with the 50 day MA now approaching the 200 day MA. The downtrend has been going on since June, well before this current market selloff. Evidently, the market does not believe that Apple will be able to maintain its spectacular level of profits, let alone grow them. Yes, they should earn $53 billion this year, which could prove to be their all-time high water mark. But next year profits will probably decline due to little to no revenue growth and increasing pressure on margins. Buybacks will help EPS somewhat, but even so, I think EPS could decline as well. I can see the stock approaching 100 in late October after their guidance for F1Q16 becomes public, and projects a YoY revenue decline.
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    Icahn just wanted to make a case to get Cook to increase the buybacks and to hype up the stock price for a quick profit by presenting an inflated value for the stock. He gloated in the attention it got him, although he's keeping a low profile now because of the stocks's recent weakness.
    Aug 19, 2015. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    Bill, it would help if you put your disclosure in the summary section of your article, rather than in the fine print at the top. Tipper obviously missed it as I did.
    Aug 19, 2015. 09:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Drops, Becomes More Attractive As It Aims For Total Victory Over Android And Windows [View article]
    Apple is currently trading where it is because of the growing realization that its profit dominance may not continue forever. I look for relatively flat revenues and decreasing net income next year, although EPS could be up slightly because of buybacks. I think that the stock is currently fairly priced considering its low growth prospects from this point. Reevaluation and movement one way or the other will follow the product release next month and the F4Q15 results and F1Q16 guidance in late October. Until then, let the debate continue.
    Aug 14, 2015. 10:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Are iPhone Margins Sustainable? [View article]
    Excellent article. Consensus estimates for 2016 are too high, especially for net income because of margin pressures. This should be evident with the next earnings report in late October, where they will give guidance for F1Q16. They won't top this year's expected $53 billion next year. Over the next few years I expect net income to stagnate and possibly fall further due to the factors mentioned by the author.
    Aug 11, 2015. 01:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    Good article Mark, but I for one think that this has been a much needed correction. Expectations had gotten ahead of themselves. Considering all issues, I think the stock is fairly valued for now. The key data point to come will be their guidance for the last calendar quarter (their fiscal 1Q16) in their late October release. If they guide to lower revenues than F1Q15's record $74 B, the stock could sell off some more. If they guide to higher revenues, it can move back up. Their guidance will answer the current debate.
    Aug 5, 2015. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • To What Extent Will iPhone Shipments Grow Next Year? [View article]
    Right on Andreas. As the great and late Martin Zweig often said: "Don't fight the tape."
    Aug 4, 2015. 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • To What Extent Will iPhone Shipments Grow Next Year? [View article]
    Good article Alex. I'm with the majority of analysts though in projecting very little revenue growth next year. But I respect your thinking.
    Aug 4, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Who Blinks First? [View article]
    Icahn's targets have always been absurd. Apple is a $600-650 B company, not the $1 trillion company he would have you believe. The market is finally adjusting the market cap down from the overly optimistic $700-750 B+ range, as it becomes more convinced that growth will be difficult from here. At the current share count of 5.7 B, the stock should trade in the $105-115 range. It's pretty much there now. Buybacks will help boost the stock price above this range to maintain the market cap at $600-650 B. If they can eventually reduce the share count to 5.0 B (a 12% reduction from here), the stock should trade in the $120-130 range. That would cost $80 B at today's price and would raise debt from the current $50 B to $130 B.
    Aug 4, 2015. 05:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
956 Comments
1,636 Likes