Doug Garnett

Raw Data Report: Santa Fe Cattle Co., Kohl's, Abercrombie & Fitch, Under Armour

Full Truth About the Economy is Too Complex for Headlines
An Alternative View of the Financial “Catastrophe”
By Doug Garnett, Atomic Direct


In case you haven’t heard, we’re in a recession. And, news outlets couldn’t be happier.
Finally, financial reporters have captured the top of the hour (no longer appearing only briefly at a quarter past); all from a crisis with no apparent end and no absolute solution.
But will their gleeful doom and gloom drive us from recession into depression?
Lions & Tigers & Bears
The difference between tone and fact in a 12/29/08 Bloomberg article started my personal campaign against media hype.
Titled “Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Store Closings,” this article reported that 148,000 stores may close in 2008. That sounds bad.
Until you read further and find out that this is only the worst since 2001. In truth, well over 100,000 stores normally close in a year and 153,000 stores closed in 2001. So in 2008 perhaps 10,000 unexpected mom and pop store closings were spread across 200 DMAs (that’s the smallish average of 50 per DMA.)
The article also notes the S&P Retail Index Stock is down by 35%. This says nothing about the economy. Besides, the Dow Jones dropped 32%.
November Spending Was Actually Up
Note also the poorly chosen title for a 12/24/08 AP article “November Personal Spending Falls 0.6 Percent.” Deep in the article that you find that the drop is due solely to gas prices and that “(e)xcluding price changes, consumer spending would have … actually risen by 0.6% in November.”
So in November consumer demand was up and consumers paid fair prices for the goods.
December Was Bad, but Not Too Bad
On January 8th retailers released their numbers and the AP article is titled “Retailers Report Dismal Sales.” Buried in the article we learn that Target, Macy’s, and even JCPenney beat expectations and that sales increased at both Wal-mart and Costco.
Competing to Dramatize the Crisis
Driven by viewership, ego and money, the media profits from cataclysm. Networks and newspapers need it to increase viewership and readership and so-called “expert sources” need the screen time on 24-hour networks to build their consulting businesses.
And, cataclysms offer reporters career-making opportunities. What reporter wouldn’t kill for the opportunity to say: “Well Bob, the fourth horseman of the apocalypse arrived this morning. Retail analysts are telling us to stockpile water and prepare for Armageddon. We’re expecting a statement from Saint Peter at any moment. Back to you.”
Left Unreported: Truth
Truth is found in the complexities of competing facts. Unfortunately, it appears simplification to the point of stupidity attracts news viewers.
What we haven’t heard includes:
• Amazon.com had record sales in fourth quarter.
• Malls were packed with shoppers spending money.
• A growing number of analysts offer optimistic assessments of 2009.
My own client’s fortunes are pretty good. One luxury product saw sales drop due to soft consumer spending. A couple more lost sales for reasons I believe are unconnected to the economic downdraft. One client mounted a major Q4 effort and saw astounding retail sell-through. And the rest were a mix of slightly down, static or up slightly. That’s not a bad year.
What Should Have Been
The real truth of this year’s holiday shopping season is that sales would have been much better without the media hype (made worse by two months of presidential campaigning.) That hype helped turn a serious crisis in the financial industry into a broader crisis that affected retail.
News reports destroyed consumer confidence. Media hype caused retailers to curtail orders from manufacturers. And manufacturers have undertaken pre-emptive layoffs that don’t appear required by their business realities.
Recession or Depression?
Media mis-reporting may change what might have been a recession into a deeper depression. We can’t do much about that.
But knowing that the depth of this crisis may be media-induced should change our actions and we should never read or hear a headline without digging deeper to find the truth. After all, it’s our customers, clients, employees and families who suffer if they are wrong.





About the author:
Doug Garnett is president of Atomic Direct — a boutique DRTV agency specializing in consumer and retail products. Atomic’s clients include Rubbermaid, DuPont, AAA, Alberto-Culver, and DisneyMobile.. Doug also teaches advertising in the School of Business Administration at Portland State University.