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  • Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market [View article]
    The 1930's was more of a price deflation wave, than debt deflation, at least from the government debt point of view.


    On May 17 11:16 AM Plan B Economics wrote:

    > The last major episode of debt deflation in the US occurred during
    > the 1930s. The other major debt deflation of the 20th century occurred
    > in Japan starting in 1990. Japan is still trying to climb its way
    > out of that one.
    >
    > Most other recessions in the western world during the 20th century
    > were due to central bank tightening, inventory corrections or external
    > shocks. Unwinding credit bubbles are very different from plain-vanilla
    > recessions.
    May 17 13:04 pm |Rating: 0 -2 |Link to Comment
  • Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market [View article]
    Interesting to look at the 2 almost vertical rises of about 100% from the 1932 and 1933 bottoms. We had a gold standard in the 1930's, and a continuation of Republican policy from 1929 to 1932, both are not present this time. I find the comparison between the 18 month long 2001-2003 crash, followed by a 6 month long bull market rise that recaptured most of the prior 18 month loss, and the recent 18 month crash and the current 2 month rise a more interesting comparison.

    If we do crash again (which I doubt) I believe we will recover to current levels in a year or less, just like we did in 1932 and 1934, so I am 50% stocks (holding and will not sell, no matter how low we go), and 50% cash ready to pick up more bargains if others are foolish enough to give away cheap stocks again like they did at 666.
    May 17 13:02 pm |Rating: 0 -8 |Link to Comment
  • The 'Bull or Bear' Debate Will Be Resolved Soon [View article]
    Great article, great charts, well done.
    May 10 14:47 pm |Rating: +2 -3 |Link to Comment
  • Four Issues Keeping a Lid on Stocks [View article]
    Check the BDI, and this weekends news on COSCO and European resumption of buying Brazil Iron Ore. International trade is resuming.

    But you do hit on part of what caused the crash in my opinion, unstable energy, commodity and currency markets caused by excessive gambling!


    On Feb 20 07:06 PM Aristophanes wrote:

    > Another one, perhaps as big as al the others:
    >
    > Worldwide trade implosion.
    >
    > Who you gonna sell to? Who has credit to buy? Which currency do you
    > deal in? Where's the insurance and how much does it cost?
    Feb 21 16:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Four Issues Keeping a Lid on Stocks [View article]
    Sounds like pessimism is peaking here. TIme to buy!

    Oh, and the SKY is Falling!!!
    Feb 21 16:47 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment
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