Dave Dorgan

Is It a Stock Market Rally or a Dollar Devaluation?

Yes, there is , "Something ominous is at work here."
It's the monsterous amount of money that the Fed and others have pumped into the system.
Very little of it has found its way into an economic recovery, rather the majority is going into investment vehicles. We know the banks e.g.GS can't make money the old fashioned way - everybody is trading.
The risk trade in currencies - especially the AUS$ and CAD$ has been prevelant and dominated by two forces:
1) the US stock market - positive moves indicating the rest of the world will follow economically (let's not pursue that pipe dream)
2) the price of commodities, especially oil
Yes, the weak US$ makes US assets cheap, but the perception clearly is that the profit potentials elsewhere are greater even with the US$ devaluation factored in.
We are only now starting to see some decoupling. For the last few months, if you looked at 10 minute charts of the US stock market, oil, and the dollar, you saw that the currencies i.e the US$, were following and not leading.

Global Markets in Review: Has Pullback Begun with China?

Instead of 'pullback' we could see choppy sideways for some time. That type of market movement is typical after a strong run - in either direction.
I would not expect the Chinese government - or any government for that matter - to just sit there and watch their political future just go out the window. I expect a serious amount of band-aids, duck tape, word smything, serious rule bending and outright lies - before market forces eventually have the last word.

Bring On the Recovery

Yes, C4C has made some dealers happy, but many are now looking at dropping the program, because 80% of the cars sold are Japanese or Korean models. A boost for retail sales, but - not counting where the vehicles are produced - the benefits to the broader economy: manufacturing, labor, etc.. is less significant.


On Aug 16 09:29 AM Old Trader wrote:

> As I understand it, the improvement in many numbers is/was the result,
> in large part, of the C4C program, which was extended. If that is,
> in fact, the case, we may see some continued improvement in mfg.
> for a bit longer. Additionally, there has been some tweaking of the
> program. Initially, it was only to be applied to vehicles in dealer
> inventory, but because of depleted stocks of the most desired vehicles,
> the vouchers can now be used for vehicles ordered (Ford's Focus and
> hybrid Escape are 2 that are in notably high demand).
>
> Offsetting this, from everything I'm hearing/reading, back to school
> season will be a dud, and nobody's looking for the holiday season
> to be a barn burner, either. If the recession IS over, I think the
> second dip of a double dipper is around the corner.

China's Growth: Far Less than Meets the Eye

Sir, you make an important point. Self-preservation of the communist party/government is ultimately the key factor in any decision the government makes. That can - and sometimes does - come before the best interests of the economy, the people, and the country as a whole.


On Aug 03 07:32 PM Zhang Fei wrote:
>
> Western governments can lose elections and go back into the private
> sector. If the Chinese government falls, Hu Jintao & Co. could
> end up being beaten to death, much like the steel company executive
> several days ago.

As Earnings Season Progresses, Revenue and EPS Continue to Deteriorate

Notice that the only truely positive number in the tables is Sales for the Financials sector at 15.73%. Meaning that speculating with government bailout money (aka TARP) was virtually the only way to make any money last quarter.

Consider Yourselves Warned: This Bull Market Can't Last

What, no wireless card? May your trip be a good one (profitable) for all of us.

Wall Street Is Front-Running Your Stock Orders

OK, my question is, what about a bear market? Or, sell orders in general. I don't believe they get an exemption on the short sale rule. Most people prefer a bull market, except for those that know there is no reason for it, and hence are able to - for now - get away with what they are doing. Also, I have to think the "enterprising capitalists" who created these systems are smart enough to know that they would be hung out to dry if they were then associated with a major downward correction.
Perhaps they just keep filling their coffers while they keep the market inflated. Then when they have their fill, they walk away and let reality return.

7 Clues Pointing to an Imminent iPhone China Launch

Nice research and analysis. The iPhone in China combined with the iTablet could make for a very interesting 4th quarter.

Will Gold Outperform the S&P 500 for 2009?

Interesting statistics, and I give you a Bravo for the title of your article. I knew the firestorm in the Comments would be entertaining regardless of the article's content. The only topics more polarizing than investing in gold are politics and religion - as evidenced by the fact that politics still found its way here, too.

Why Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product

Well thought out Jason. davesmall has extended the thought very well. I would expect that Jobs & Co have thought through every idea - pro & con - presented here and a few million more. One might also want to think about the gadgets out there that perform a piece of what the tablet might do, and their potential to exist post tablet. The Amazon Kindle comes to mind.
Also, I'm not bashing here, but from personal experience I like the Verizon - or no AT&T - decision. Which still opens the door for a worldwide connectivity solution.

It's Still a Trading Market

From a US timezone perspective, I can't recall seeing such low volatility - in all the currencies, even for a Friday - during the early morning and morning periods. Psychologically, sitting on your hands is the toughest and smartest thing to do right now.

Expect Markets to Get a Little More Interesting

I believe it is going to get a bit more boring and a good bit more absurd before things get really interesting. Right now, blind faith dominates.

Bye Bye Apple

Huh?
1) Don't sell out Steve Jobs. I've had a liver transplant. I would love to know what he came up with while laying there recovering. Nothing drug induced - I know. When your body has been beat down to nothing, your mind is your savior.
2) I think they will do well in a down Christmas this year, too. For many, if you have to cut back it's going to be one good gift instead of a bunch so-so gifts. We saw this last year, too.

S&P 500: Sales Per Share Falling

Nice analysis. Much of the corporate world has shown that they actually are very good at running a company in tough times, including always being aware of share holder value. But, many of these companies are now very limited on their options for further cost cutting. They have already implemented, layoffs, increasing salaried employee hours, limited travel, trimmed fat (a lesson for congress), and a variety of other things. There is very little room left in the cost reduction area. Without an increase in demand, the next quarter must be presenting some serious challenges. We've heard that the back to school season is going to be disappointing, and I would not expect great Christmas shopping season either. These are just a couple of examples of the overall situation. So far, Wall Street has loved economic data that is declining at a less bad rate. How will they respond when some flavor of that story comes out in 3rd quarter eps reports e.g. costs remained unchaged to down 1% and sales were flat to up 1%?

A Thoroughly Exhausted Bull Market

As always, more good info TD. My concern is GS. The majority don't want to complain when the market is going up, but if the market goes down, how is GS going to make it's money? No doubt they can make money in either direction, but on the bear side they become first in line at the witch burning. And, they probably know this all too well.