mariocavolo

6 Bellwether Dividend Stocks

thanks for your articles ..... hard for me to feel good about 3% dividend yields in this environment... close to meaningless...filters show a meaningful portfolio of stocks, mlp's and other securities yielding 7% to 12% without too high a threat of cancelling or cutting their yield unless, of course, we have another crisis moment, which is likely as the truth comes out at some point and a particular event sends the markets plunging again...that will be the next great buying opp.....I missed it in March/April.......Cheers, Mario

U.S. Economy: The Good, The Bad and the Fugly

Thanks for your article..its a lot of work to sort through and write about so much important information that we need to try to understand. Meanwhile, I can remind you of a couple of facts:

1. The U.S. nor China stock markets SHOULD be booming...its been a speculative trader's rise with little economic fundamentals to support it and that fact is coming to the surface again and will slap us in the face between now and the end of the year.

2. China, as well as it IS doing, is incredibly corrupt when it comes to what happens to cash. Keep in mind it is a CASH driven society, NOT a credit card driven society. Chinese govt and other world economic leaders are now identifiying that an estimated 45% of the chinese govt stimulus money intended to be used by companies to stimulate real economic growth was simply used to invest in the stock markets for gains....there's your main reason for the sharp, speculative rise in the China stock exchanges. And now the speculators, as is normal, are taking a breather, taking their profits...easily causing a 10% plus correction. Its all just the continuing of the state of affairs...Cheers, Mario, mariocavolo.com

Chinese Underconsumption Didn't Cause Recession

Don't forget that as the new burgeoning China middle class continues to emerge, consumption spending is on the rise big time with the savings rate declining...Cheers, M

China Developing Its Own Real Estate Bubble

you wrote...."China will never have a burgeoning middle class, because financial capital will abandon the Chinese as soon as costs in that country rise beyond a certain thresh-hold. "

My friend you apparently don't live here in China along with us expat business people who've been here for 5-10 years.....China's burgeoning middle class is numbered somewhere between 100-200 million depending on whom you might ask, have more cash than you could ever imagine, no credit card debt...NONE, own their new cars without loans, own 80% of their homes without mortgages...

Also, your suggestion that financial capital will bail as the unavoidable inflation pushes up costs....a silly notion....multinational FDI came here for the long haul, knowing the inflationary scenario that comes with an expanding nation, not to bail. Even as costs double, they are still relatively low. Admittedly, the cost increases will cause some outflows into India, etc, but not much as a percentage.....Cheers, Mario, sanyaexpat.com


On Jul 03 04:03 PM LilBob wrote:

> "...Whilst the money is being spent investing to satisfy the needs
> of a rapidly expanding middle..."
>
> We ascribe to different notions regarding the outcome of globalization
> Dave. You're apparently on-board with those who think there will
> be benefits that raise all ships, while I'm on the side that believes
> that globalization will result in working people all over the world
> ending up in the same boat as John Steinbeck's "Okies," from the
> Grapes of Wrath. China will never have a burgeoning middle class,
> because financial capital will abandon the Chinese as soon as costs
> in that country rise beyond a certain thresh-hold.

The Congressional Bailout of Madoff's Investors

Matthew thanks very much....more eye openers that simply make me want to vomit as we watch these games of corruption of the rich, by the rich and for the rich....ha, not what Lincoln had in mind...Cheers, M

Current Rally Is Inflationary: Not the First, Won't Be the Last

Hi Dave,

Hi Dave,

just one that one question of yours to inform you who is prospering outside the U.S. the answer is China and related areas....yes, despite the drop in exports due to the global meltdown, internally China has plenty of strength, ...1. it is becoming the new booming auto industry of the world, therefore consuming massively increasing amounts of oil, and 2. the country is cash rich, consumers in China are at the beginning of their country's ecoonomic boom....they have very little mortgage debt, credit card debt and oodles of cash in the bank as the greatest savers in the world....I live here in China for 10 years...Cheers, Mario

On May 31 10:41 AM Dave Dorgan wrote:

> Oil has been driven up by demand outside the US? This has been a
> GLOBAL recession. Who are these unsung countries that have dodged
> the economic bullet? One other theory on the rise in oil prices -
> and commodity prices in general - is that it has driven by the same
> thing that happened to oil prices in '07 & '08. Pure speculation
> on a massive scale - Commodity Index Funds (a self-fulfilling prophecy),
> financial houses with lots of TARP money (this time around). The
> oil has not been consumed. It is sitting in the holds of many, many
> tankers floating around the world. When reality sets in, rather,
> profit taking, the house of cards will come crashing down. That would
> have been in July of '08 (oh, I think we're in a recession i.e. no
> demand for this overpriced stuff): oil, gold & crb peaked, the
> Dow breaks below 12000 support, the US$ starts its upward move. I'm
> not saying that this is the cause of the world wide recession. It's
> all perception. Right now everyone thinks that bad news that isn't
> as bad as the previous month is really good news. Economies don't
> move like perfect sine waves. That is why we have double bottoms,
> triple bottoms and head & shoulder patterns. It is possible that
> we are just waiting for the second coming of reality setting in.

Gold Up Sharply as the Bear Market Rally Falters

that somebody was Deutsch Bank who got caught on OPEX day when a boatload of gold futures contracts holders decided to take delivery instead of roll....another major illegal reality swept under the rug...Mario, mariocavolo.com


On Apr 25 10:02 AM Vuke wrote:

> The ECB just sold 14 Billion euros in gold and revalued their holdings
> up.
>
> Somebody just got bailed out of a short position. The ECB is leading
> the charge against an "inflation mentality". Gold's rise will be
> carefully managed, a good thing for investors. No spectacular gains
> but a sure and steady appreciation.
>
> www.forbes.com/feeds/a...

S&P Sectors Impact: A Look at 9 ETFs

You bet Richard...they're crooks

"We can only imagine how much differently the economy would have responded had the government given a $42,000 check for each citizen, instead of $500 tax rebates and billions to the institutions and management teams that engineered the financial crisis in the first place."

Beaten Down Natural Gas Likely to Stay Down, Making Producers a Short

Hi Jack and Yank, yep here in China, for example, Shanghai, the entire taxi fleet is powered by natural gas...like 20,000 cars....why not more in the future? I can't tell any difference.....Cheers


On Apr 02 01:50 PM jack kreg wrote:

> Yank, absolutely, CNG is clean burning available in USA, priced in
> USA (not global OPEC), lets get those drill rigs back to work and
> start powering our transportation fleets with clean burning and cheap
> CNG, thanks Yank.
>
> Sadly, with Detroit now being run out of Washington, we will probably
> not have the choice of purchasing a low cost CNG powered vehicle,
> instead we will be offered an expensive EV fueled by coal powered
> electricity, with battery's of questionalbe lifetimes. Hurray for
> Global warming, the demise of America's middle class.
>
> YANK; "The other wild card is does nat gas figure into Pres. Obama's
> energy/transportation reform proposals? I mean if the nat gas is
> there why not use it to power vehicles? The US Post office, FEDEX,
> and UPS have been using nat gas powered vehicles for years without
> any problems.", Right On Yank, ATT just announced their plans for
> a $500Million purchase of CNG cars and trucks from Ford".

Credit Card Cancer

Quite simply, the quality of lifestyle of the average lower to upper middle class America is going to experience a steady decline over the next 5 years and there is almost no way to stop it from happening...its a very scary yet easily demonstrated reality...Besides this, other countries and their citizens all over the world are going to experience their own severe economic and societal problems too. However, to blame the U.S. is also a bit of a paradox...it is the world's largest superpower economy built on a mountain of debt, but let's not forget that the rest of the planet enjoyed the ride that came as a result of that strategy. Now the party is indeed over and life is going to change dramatically on this planet...

Not a Day to Dive Back In

there's alot of technical support for a rally to 800 or higher SHORT TERM...there is a huge level of shorts who will squeeze this bear market rally up to that level, PLUS there IS institutional/broker desk program trading that has already kicked in, REGARDLESS of the fundamentals....then the plunge continues as it should because as noted by most of you, the economic fundamentals are a disaster and worsening in the coming weeks and months...I suspect the next quarterly earnings reports will be the trigger that starts the plunge again if not sooner...

Why I'm Bearish on China

Chinese government statistics cannot be trusted, there is very little outside evidence to support the numbers they are putting out. The government has shown time and time again that it will do whatever is necessary to continue to propagate the rising China myth.

Whoa my friend....its not a myth. I agree with the article pointing out the global/industrial reduction in demand and of course drop in exports...they will hurt BUT what you all need to take more seriously is the enormous amount of cash that exists internally in China, both in the government's hands and in the hands of the private citizens. China, Singapore, Taiwan, will weather this storm better than any other country because there is plenty of cash. I live here in China since 1999. Believe me on this, it is a point foreigners have difficulty comprehending. Good luck to all...

S&P 500 Valuation Analysis: Near Bottom

Thanks for a deeper and insightful review on this.

"Using Value Line database, I found that 76% of the 1396 companies with positive earnings trade below 15 x trailing EPS and 50% trade at less than 10 x trailing."

I have to add that based on my researching and reading all over the internet/media we are in such an unprecedentedly severe and broad (global!) crisis, it is way too early to call buying, except very selective fingerdipping....it pains me to see GE, for example, at $6, but I thought it would be steal at $13, $11, then $9, etc. Finally, it appears likely in the extreme that the deterioration will plummet to its worst stages in the NEXT 3 to 6 months and maybe even longer because we haven't yet felt the effects of the recent and still-to-come damage.... Too soon to buy...we're going to hell first and it makes me unhappy to say it because I don't want to be a bear or a bull. I just want to see it and deal with it as it is... Cheers, Mario

Trading the Mark-to-Market Modification (Updated)

wow...that's a helluva thing to notice Old Rick


On Mar 06 04:55 PM Old Rick wrote:

> I just looked at long-dated calls on JPM and note that changes to
> M2M seem to be priced in. Jan 2010 17.50s are at $4.55 on a close
> today of $15.93

Barron's Calls a Bottom

I'm so happy Barron's calls a bottom.....now I know much more likely to stay short a while longer....