The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
Simply stating this is the most hated rally in history, and a lot of people have tried calling tops. Any dip the sentiment gets negative instantly. I agree how overbought it is, but that view is just too popular.
Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
Good article JS and I think you will turn out to be right.
I also think the downturn may happen later in the year and from considerably higher levels. My reasoning is, I do not see the public embracing the market as yet. This is still, the most hated bull market in history! I think it needs to be loved first.
Look where the money has gone. Primarily into bonds and bond like stocks like JNJ ect. This is not a confirmation of froth. I think a rotation has to happen to cyclical and inflationary names first -- you can't call these overbought -- some are near multi year lows!
I think the Fed will ultimately succeed in raising inflation expectations -- and then they will get away on them. To summarize, I don't see a crash without a major catalyst.
This could be a huge oil spike, bond crash, or similar.
A possibility this year is a 1987 year -- a huge melt up followed by a crash. This would be preceded by a massive expansion in volume as the public pours in (late), which hasn't appeared to have happened yet, especially judging by the volumes.
The street is wooing the public, and the fish may just be starting to nibble. They want the whole fish on the hook before they pull it in.
In response to the spike in volatility, CME Group (CME) says it's raising collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday. Margins to trade Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, silver will increase 18%, palladium 14% and platinum by 19%. Natural-gas futures will also increase 5.6% as well. [View news story]
As Cullen Roche has repeatedly explained, QE is simply an asset swap. It is not money printing, because the money is simply being held as excess reserves. Money supply is of course up, but money in circulation is not.
So the question is, where is the money coming from to bid up 2 very different asset classes?
Next would be, do you see the current earnings margins maintained at their record ratios, which of course supports current estimates better than the weak top line?
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver - $26 Is The Line In The Sand [View article]
Matthew,
A few questions:
First on pm's, I have read the sentiment stats you have, but am wary. There are SO many raving stubborn PM bulls will still all read out there. I don't feel like they have thrown in the towel.
Same with equity bears. Way too many looking for a correction, it seems....sentiment moving all over the place.
Lastly, does not the strong treasury bonds confirm the deflation indicated by the commodity weakness?
The Sell-Off In Gold Has Become Plain Silly [View article]
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
There are SO many people looking for a top! no wonder we grind higher.
Update On Gold: Is This The Bottom? [View article]
Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
Why I Remain Bearish Despite The Cyclical Bull Rally [View article]
I also think the downturn may happen later in the year and from considerably higher levels. My reasoning is, I do not see the public embracing the market as yet. This is still, the most hated bull market in history! I think it needs to be loved first.
Look where the money has gone. Primarily into bonds and bond like stocks like JNJ ect. This is not a confirmation of froth. I think a rotation has to happen to cyclical and inflationary names first -- you can't call these overbought -- some are near multi year lows!
I think the Fed will ultimately succeed in raising inflation expectations -- and then they will get away on them. To summarize, I don't see a crash without a major catalyst.
This could be a huge oil spike, bond crash, or similar.
A possibility this year is a 1987 year -- a huge melt up followed by
a crash. This would be preceded by a massive expansion in volume as the public pours in (late), which hasn't appeared to have happened yet, especially judging by the volumes.
The street is wooing the public, and the fish may just be starting to nibble. They want the whole fish on the hook before they pull it in.
Just my thoughts and best to all.
3 Moves To Make On The Verge Of Market Panic [View article]
In response to the spike in volatility, CME Group (CME) says it's raising collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday. Margins to trade Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, silver will increase 18%, palladium 14% and platinum by 19%. Natural-gas futures will also increase 5.6% as well. [View news story]
Can Gold Plummet To $400/Ounce? [View article]
Trouble Ahead For The Gold Bears [View article]
More Confirmation The Economy Is Tanking - Trouble For Bank Stocks? [View article]
More Confirmation The Economy Is Tanking - Trouble For Bank Stocks? [View article]
Ive been around markets quite a while. And you will capitulate and puke up this position. Count on it.
When you do, perhaps it will be a good solid contrary indicator.
Can The S&P 500 Decline By 40%? [View article]
As Cullen Roche has repeatedly explained, QE is simply an asset swap. It is not money printing, because the money is simply being held as excess reserves. Money supply is of course up, but money in circulation is not.
So the question is, where is the money coming from to bid up 2 very different asset classes?
Next would be, do you see the current earnings margins maintained at their record ratios, which of course supports current estimates better than the weak top line?
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Silver - $26 Is The Line In The Sand [View article]
A few questions:
First on pm's, I have read the sentiment stats you have, but am wary. There are SO many raving stubborn PM bulls will still all read out there. I don't feel like they have thrown in the towel.
Same with equity bears. Way too many looking for a correction, it seems....sentiment moving all over the place.
Lastly, does not the strong treasury bonds confirm the deflation indicated by the commodity weakness?
Can The S&P 500 Decline By 40%? [View article]
If you do; are you shorting them? If you don't; how do you reconcile them with your views on stocks?