Why Market Bears Have Been Terribly Wrong: A Learning Experience [View article]
It's clear from the overwhelming negative sentiment, low volumes, record short and cash positions, both retail and institutional, that there are huge short positions to be covered. No one is long. The market has to get the shorts out and the skeptical, which is everyone, fully long. Then we can reevaluate. That will take new all time highs.
Why Reality Does Not Support The Recent Rally [View article]
Article is sound but doesn't matter. Here is what does, and why we go much higher. Look first at the sentiment. Yours is one of many articles today hating the rally, hence it continues. Record retail short positions, public short or all in bonds / cash, terribly fearful and distrustful sentiment, underinvested institutions sitting on mountains of cash, starting to panic as the market refuses to pull back. As a portfolio manager, if the market goes up without you, you are gone. More and more will be forced in until all are bullish. There will be no dip but a melt up in the central bank world.
A $43 Billion Tesla: Musk's Incentives Of Interest [View article]
The author should read other work on TSLA. There is convincing work out there that TSLA will have to raise capital as soon as this quarter due to their financial position after this quarter. To compare anyway in any form to AAPL is just silly. The bull case would have you believe people will be trading in their BMW's and Porsches for an S model. AS a 3 series driver,....well I don't think so.
According to an economic barometer called the Money Market Index, the recent rally in the Dow over the past three trading sessions has been "totally irrational," says the index's chief researcher Dan Geller. The rally, mostly due to the release of Friday's monthly jobs report, shows that the enthusiasm has been mispaced due to the simple fact that a large portion of the 163K new jobs reported are only temporary, and likely to vanish soon. The move "has no economic merit," Geller insists. [View news story]
So when are markets rational? Markets will likely keep going up because of the skeptical. Mountains of cash on the sidelines, record retail short positions, and massively underinvested long funds will be forced to chase the market higher into year end....but as there are no sellers, the chasing to get positions will get extreme....as funds cannot watch the market go higher without them. Once retail covers their shorts and goes long....then perhaps we are closer to a top.
Why Fidelity Dumping Facebook Is Such A Disastrous Signal For The Market [View article]
Nobody "made" fidelity, or anyone else, invest in facebook stock. Personally, I hope many more " facebooks" come to market, that means more opportunity to short.
Why The Market Rally Will Likely End This Week [View article]
The market knows all tech companies have their day in the sun, and that is why aapl will not get a higher pe, and that ratio will likely grind lower. There is one thing certain in tech investing, and that is outsized margins will attract meaningful competition. Aapl now has so many bulls, and so many invested in the stock, likely some on margin, than when it does really disappoint one day, as all companies do, the reaction will affect the whole market.
Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
Are they willing to ignore spiking grain prices, and print regardless of the consequences for these markets, and the worlds poor who rely on moderate food prices to survive. This is yet another question.
Fight Your Feelings - Buy What Everybody Shuns; Mentally Tough, Fiscally Rewarding [View article]
Ridiculous cherry picking article. Simply quoting the same source, sentiment trader, active investment managers are now " all in " long to one of the highest levels ever measured! The most bearish manager surveyed, In a group that trades with up to 200% short exposure, was only flat -- no shorts at all.
If you are going to write on sentiment, don't insult us by quoting one of many data points on it.
Has anyone looked at grain prices lately? Excuse me, they may not matter to Bernanke and co, but they should. We have a budding food crisis and any qe programs would send prices totally out of control, leading to food riots, uprisings and deaths from starvation in the developing world, where food prices are critical to survival. Now I know having a higher stock market is more important than starving some poor brown people, but I sincerely hope policy makers think twice before having that kind of blood on their hands . Sorry, this is more important than a few unemployed in Spain. Likely will not matter to anyone, such is the self serving world we live in.
Bulls Will Win The Battle, Bears Will Win The War [View article]
Has anyone looked at grain prices lately? Excuse me, they may not matter to Bernanke and co, but they should. We have a budding food crisis and any qe programs would send prices totally out of control, leading to food riots, uprisings and deaths from starvation in the developing world, where food prices are critical to survival. Now I know having a higher stock market is more important than starving some poor brown people, but I sincerely hope policy makers think twice before having that kind of blood on their hands . And blood it wlll be.
Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
James, a few questions...likely without precise answers possible. I'll settle for quality discourse. As further Qe programs seem unlikely to stimulate the real economy, at what point do risk markets and economic trends reconcile?
At what point, if ever, does the market lose confidence in the fed or low interest rates to stimulate inflation expectations, the economy and ultimately earnings?
Why is the us equity market so diverged higher than the weakness in most em markets, like India, brazil, china? Never mind Europe.
It would seem we are running here on hope, dreams, a flight to us assets and a desperate grab for dividend yielding stocks regardless of the state of the economy. However the short side has been very difficult to stay with even in weak companies.
The short question is, when can one "flight the fed" ?
Why Reality Does Not Support The Recent Rally [View article]
Why Market Bears Have Been Terribly Wrong: A Learning Experience [View article]
Why Reality Does Not Support The Recent Rally [View article]
A $43 Billion Tesla: Musk's Incentives Of Interest [View article]
According to an economic barometer called the Money Market Index, the recent rally in the Dow over the past three trading sessions has been "totally irrational," says the index's chief researcher Dan Geller. The rally, mostly due to the release of Friday's monthly jobs report, shows that the enthusiasm has been mispaced due to the simple fact that a large portion of the 163K new jobs reported are only temporary, and likely to vanish soon. The move "has no economic merit," Geller insists. [View news story]
Friday's Fiscal Fantasy Camp [View article]
Why Fidelity Dumping Facebook Is Such A Disastrous Signal For The Market [View article]
Believe In The Cult Of Equity [View article]
Why The Market Rally Will Likely End This Week [View article]
Facebook Investors: Your Nightmare Has Just Begun [View article]
Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
Fight Your Feelings - Buy What Everybody Shuns; Mentally Tough, Fiscally Rewarding [View article]
If you are going to write on sentiment, don't insult us by quoting one of many data points on it.
Did Draghi Flip The Spring Switch? [View article]
Bulls Will Win The Battle, Bears Will Win The War [View article]
Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
At what point, if ever, does the market lose confidence in the fed or low interest rates to stimulate inflation expectations, the economy and ultimately earnings?
Why is the us equity market so diverged higher than the weakness in most em markets, like India, brazil, china? Never mind Europe.
It would seem we are running here on hope, dreams, a flight to us assets and a desperate grab for dividend yielding stocks regardless of the state of the economy. However the short side has been very difficult to stay with even in weak companies.
The short question is, when can one "flight the fed" ?
Best regards