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Macrotrader100

Macrotrader100
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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #18 [View instapost]
    L,

    That's good. It's not a criticism. Don't take it that way.

    Its generalized counsel -- not directed at you but anyone -- about developing the right thought process from a top down level.

    I'm not writing specifically to you, although I posted your name. I'm sharing my process as its developed for 15 years. (Anyone) Take whatever is of value, leave the rest.

    I see at lot on this and other blogs, "it's got a great dividend, so it must be a good buy" type of thought process. That's, like the last thing I look at.

    Bottom line, I use a top down approach. Others use a bottom up. People should use what works for them, but be consistent, as not to get twisted up.
    Apr 19 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #18 [View instapost]
    L, (moving this down here)
     
    My frank advice. You are not going to learn this game through (only) getting ideas on this or that.
     
    You need to learn how to think, analyze, and determine a consistent process that works for your personality and tolerance. Otherwise you get twisted by the wind, by other investors opinions, and dont form your own convictions.
     
    To me too many investors do this. They invest in this or that because Buffett is in it. But you don't learn that way. It's funny, I'm in 3 stocks I discovered Carl Icahn is in. Now I'm not in because he is, didn't even realize he was in a couple of them. But it's interesting.
     
    My advice is think. Contemplate the world around you and the developing secular themes, and who might benefit. Then, always buy quality to take advantage of that. Of course, people will debate quality.
     
    I've rarely lost much when I focused on quality. I've lost many many thousands, buying junk or shorting high quality.
     
    And learn who's running the show. We don't buy companies -- we (at least I ) buy the CEO and his /her team.
     
    With EM's I buy the president / government.
     
    Think about it.
    Apr 19 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #18 [View instapost]
    L,

    My frank advice. You are not going to learn this game through (only) getting ideas on this or that.

    You need to learn how to think, analyze, and determine a consistent process that works for your personality and tolerance. Otherwise you get twisted by the wind, by other investors opinions, and dont form your own convictions.

    To me too many investors do this. They invest in this or that because Buffett is in it. But you don't learn that way. It's funny, I'm in 3 stocks I discovered Carl Icahn is in. Now I'm not in because he is, didn't even realize he was in a couple of them. But it's interesting.

    My advice is think. Contemplate the world around you and the developing secular themes, and who might benefit. Then, always buy quality to take advantage of that. Of course, people will debate quality.

    I've rarely lost much when I focused on quality. I've lost many many thousands, buying junk or shorting high quality.

    And learn who's running the show. We don't buy companies -- we (at least I ) buy the CEO and his /her team.

    With EM's I buy the president / government.

    Think about it.
    Apr 19 02:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #18 [View instapost]
    L,

    I'll repeat my process:

    I never, ever, buy a dividend, I'm buying a piece of a business I have a reason to invest in. That has to come first in the risk assessment.
    Apr 19 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold At An Inflection Point [View article]
    'cause in spite of all this so -called pent up demand, well known by the market and Totally discounted, in spite of "crisis in Ukraine" which has crushed Russian stocks, in spite of a huge fear driven rally in treasuries, huge oil price spike....ect.etc...gold IS falling net net, and is sitting on tenuous support.

    When that support fails, the legion of weak retail longs will panic and bail. Or try to.

    What I don't want to hear, is the word "manipulation" when it falls.
    Apr 19 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Drilling Plays In The Spotlight [View article]
    I am Canadian; the delays are not well understood up here at all. What would the US have us do; sell it all to China? There's some serious level annoyance up here.
    Apr 19 12:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold At An Inflection Point [View article]
    Without an escalation in the Ukraine, to me lower prices are highly probable.
    Short gold via futures and options.

    http://bit.ly/1oYpQU3
    Apr 19 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Drilling Plays In The Spotlight [View article]
    On Keystone,

    My view is it has dragged on so long, there is little expectation of any benefit built into Canadian energy from its approval. Therefore, buying Canadian energy may also be buying a free call option on Keystone.
    Apr 19 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rolling The Dice With Earnings [View article]
    George,

    Can you comment on your put selling parameters,

    %in /out of the money,
    Time to expiration,
    Ect.....and why?

    Thanks!
    Apr 19 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    You are all misunderstanding the cost to mine gold. 1300, 1400, is the Marginal cost to mine gold -- that's the cost to bring the next annual ounce on line.

    That is far different than the average cost. If the price falls, they stop exploring, and they stick with the easy stuff at 4-500.

    I assure you gold could fall a long, long way, and the majors would be fine.
    Apr 18 08:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Never confuse a gold bug with the facts. Me, I'm agnostic. Bearish for now, could be bullish later. Not married to any permanent view on gold.
    Apr 18 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Tell you what WM, if the paper market is such a huge illusion, let's pick a price premium at any point you wish -- lets say $100 -- and I'll sell you all the physical metal you wish. I have no doubt I'd have any issue sourcing it.

    So today, that would be $1400. I'm sure you think it's worth a lot more.
    Apr 18 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #18 [View instapost]
    T,

    Let's examine the risk / reward, first for Brazil energy, then Canada.

    In brazil I see no political upside, as the govt is likely to be re-elected. In Canada, the energy sector has been completely ignored for a long time.

    However, there is a free call option, and that is Keystone pipeline approval. This has dragged on so long, it's been forgotten. The second theres a hint Keystone will be approved -- and I believe it will -- a flood of investment capital is likely to flood into Canadian energy.

    I might look into an oily Canadian name, as a free call option on the pipeline.
    Apr 18 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Drilling Plays In The Spotlight [View article]
    Keystone would only be a kicker for my investment thesis here.
    Apr 18 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Time To Look At The Long Side Again [View article]
    Completely meaningless. None of the lawsuits even have a plaintiff.
    Apr 18 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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