Johnc's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/34371/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/101124-five-presidents-and-three-federal-reserve-chairmen-later?source=feed#comment-288586 288586 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:49:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101390-bailed-out-banker-compensation-a-pr-disaster-in-the-making?source=feed#comment-288504 288504 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 08:46:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81414-james-galbraith-joins-the-obamanomics-team?source=feed#comment-186798 186798 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 21:28:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80530-aberration-in-clear-thinking-by-jp-morgan?source=feed#comment-181582 181582
I am talking my own book, of course, and hope that someone will be kind enough to lift my GLD at 100 (missed it last time around).]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 21:19:40 -0400
I am talking my own book, of course, and hope that someone will be kind enough to lift my GLD at 100 (missed it last time around).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79684-why-lower-home-prices-are-in-your-interest?source=feed#comment-178296 178296
The real issue I fear is that Americans are not psychologically prepared for the kinds of drops implied for the UK market. I have seen past real estate meltdowns in the UK and in Hong Kong. I am not sure that the US is really ready for what might come in the next 18 months. With an untested Democrat in the White House and a trigger happy (with my tax dollars) Congress, I fear the policy response could cause tremendously unpleasant unintended consequences.]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 22:18:38 -0400
The real issue I fear is that Americans are not psychologically prepared for the kinds of drops implied for the UK market. I have seen past real estate meltdowns in the UK and in Hong Kong. I am not sure that the US is really ready for what might come in the next 18 months. With an untested Democrat in the White House and a trigger happy (with my tax dollars) Congress, I fear the policy response could cause tremendously unpleasant unintended consequences.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79536-two-ways-to-profit-from-frontier-markets?source=feed#comment-177487 177487 Sun, 01 Jun 2008 09:48:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73628-boeing-soars-while-airlines-ambac-fall?source=feed#comment-155824 155824 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:37:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73749-robert-shiller-on-america-s-speculative-culture?source=feed#comment-155801 155801 ]]> Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:17:21 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73768-what-does-the-president-know-and-when-did-he-know-it-we-re-not-in-a-recession?source=feed#comment-155798 155798 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 09:13:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72496-who-s-to-blame-for-the-commodities-boom?source=feed#comment-152008 152008 Speculators were not invented in the last 100 years. The process of price discover goes much further back than that. I would argue that the Government should work against markets getting "cornered" but other than illegal short term manipulation, the government has no business telling the market what the "right" prices are. If ETF's accellerate this price discovery, allow me to get some hedge against inflation and sends signals around the world about the money to be made by planting certain crops, developing promising new energy sources, re-engineering products to protect gross margins and a message to Central Banks about how we feel about their potentially inflationary policies....well, I'm not sure I see what the problem is.
Economic dislocation will be the result. No denying it. Buggy whip makers, mainframe computer manufacturers and coal miners in England offer just a few well known examples of economic dislocation that happened well before commodity ETF's came on the scene. ]]> Wed, 16 Apr 2008 23:59:40 -0400 Speculators were not invented in the last 100 years. The process of price discover goes much further back than that. I would argue that the Government should work against markets getting "cornered" but other than illegal short term manipulation, the government has no business telling the market what the "right" prices are. If ETF's accellerate this price discovery, allow me to get some hedge against inflation and sends signals around the world about the money to be made by planting certain crops, developing promising new energy sources, re-engineering products to protect gross margins and a message to Central Banks about how we feel about their potentially inflationary policies....well, I'm not sure I see what the problem is.
Economic dislocation will be the result. No denying it. Buggy whip makers, mainframe computer manufacturers and coal miners in England offer just a few well known examples of economic dislocation that happened well before commodity ETF's came on the scene. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72339-going-for-gold?source=feed#comment-151360 151360 Tue, 15 Apr 2008 21:14:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69587-memories-of-deflation-and-hyperinflation?source=feed#comment-130537 130537 The article is useful because it underlines a key risk to one rosy glasses scenerio which sees all the Central Banks getting together to reflate the global economy. Basically, there are a few non-US central bankers who are too allergic to the inflation that such a concerted policy is sure to breed.]]> Mon, 24 Mar 2008 08:49:34 -0400 The article is useful because it underlines a key risk to one rosy glasses scenerio which sees all the Central Banks getting together to reflate the global economy. Basically, there are a few non-US central bankers who are too allergic to the inflation that such a concerted policy is sure to breed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69518-is-palm-management-doing-enough-to-get-back-on-track?source=feed#comment-130442 130442 Mon, 24 Mar 2008 00:00:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69488-ishares-taiwan-etf-a-bet-on-improved-china-relations?source=feed#comment-130438 130438 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 23:36:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68986-how-do-you-cure-a-credit-bubble?source=feed#comment-128188 128188 Tue, 18 Mar 2008 10:37:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67789-nowhere-near-a-real-estate-bottom?source=feed#comment-124939 124939
I disagree that the housing recession will drag on too long precisely because it is an illiquid, by appointment only market. But that doesn't detract from the author's second good point that the housing bottom will lag the economic bottom by a decent interval and we shouldn't get suckered.

Since college, the longest time I have lived at one address has been 5 years. While I made out on home ownership during those 5 years, I worried about getting caught in the wrong end of a cycle. In 20/20 hindsight, I was a fool. I should have bought two or three houses, spent more time at Home Depot and saved myself alot of mental effort looking at equity markets.

I think this recession will bring a healthy amount of skepticism into the equation and the result will be a significantly higher level of household savings as it becomes obvious that there is no "magic bullet" for family financial (including retirement) planning. That new pool of savings will transform US national and trade accounts far more significantly than the misguided officials who think we can temporarily devalue our way out of our problems.

As global investors, that one change will dramatically reorder the economic landscape. No longer can emerging markets count on unlimited consumer demand in the US. Places like China and India will spend more money on infrastructure to build domestic economies capable of satisfying the needs of growing middle classes in those countries. I could go on with other changes, but you get the idea...the next 3 years will see the markets trace a different path from the past 3.

The US government can and should engage in activities that help the market to clear. It's big and powerful and quite frankly, we pay these people to keep an eye on this sort of thing. However, Congress and the officials at Treasury and the FED should be very careful about trying to "fix" the market with brilliant new schemes. Those brilliant new schemes tend to create more barriers than they tear down.

And lack of barriers is the key. The globe is awash with fiat money but not really liquidity. Liquidity implies movement and the near frozen inner workings of the credit system have kept that cash from working its magic. Money may be the root of all evil and we may be a bit sore we handed so much over to our pals in the Middle East and China, but that investment flow, combined with a more subdued US consumer will bring the US back into the economic game...probably in the lead.]]> Mon, 10 Mar 2008 23:36:58 -0400
I disagree that the housing recession will drag on too long precisely because it is an illiquid, by appointment only market. But that doesn't detract from the author's second good point that the housing bottom will lag the economic bottom by a decent interval and we shouldn't get suckered.

Since college, the longest time I have lived at one address has been 5 years. While I made out on home ownership during those 5 years, I worried about getting caught in the wrong end of a cycle. In 20/20 hindsight, I was a fool. I should have bought two or three houses, spent more time at Home Depot and saved myself alot of mental effort looking at equity markets.

I think this recession will bring a healthy amount of skepticism into the equation and the result will be a significantly higher level of household savings as it becomes obvious that there is no "magic bullet" for family financial (including retirement) planning. That new pool of savings will transform US national and trade accounts far more significantly than the misguided officials who think we can temporarily devalue our way out of our problems.

As global investors, that one change will dramatically reorder the economic landscape. No longer can emerging markets count on unlimited consumer demand in the US. Places like China and India will spend more money on infrastructure to build domestic economies capable of satisfying the needs of growing middle classes in those countries. I could go on with other changes, but you get the idea...the next 3 years will see the markets trace a different path from the past 3.

The US government can and should engage in activities that help the market to clear. It's big and powerful and quite frankly, we pay these people to keep an eye on this sort of thing. However, Congress and the officials at Treasury and the FED should be very careful about trying to "fix" the market with brilliant new schemes. Those brilliant new schemes tend to create more barriers than they tear down.

And lack of barriers is the key. The globe is awash with fiat money but not really liquidity. Liquidity implies movement and the near frozen inner workings of the credit system have kept that cash from working its magic. Money may be the root of all evil and we may be a bit sore we handed so much over to our pals in the Middle East and China, but that investment flow, combined with a more subdued US consumer will bring the US back into the economic game...probably in the lead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67222-recessionary-fears-it-s-not-just-housing-any-more?source=feed#comment-122673 122673 If oil were to "magically" drop to $90 and $80 in the short term, I would take that as a sign that the US recession had spread more quickly to the rest of the world than anyone could have anticipated. Since US exports are one of the current bright spots of the US economy, I am not sure that "the economic engine of the nation would begin to heat up..." as a result. I feel the pain every time I fill up and understand how people less fortunate than me have to be suffering greatly but the logic of the comment doesn't hold up at this time.
The FED medicine for this credit crunch has weak dollar, higher inflation side effects that will take a long time to shake off. As we learned in the 70s, inflation is a very heavy and cruel tax on the lower and middle classes. The Treasury and the FED should know better.]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 19:52:01 -0500 If oil were to "magically" drop to $90 and $80 in the short term, I would take that as a sign that the US recession had spread more quickly to the rest of the world than anyone could have anticipated. Since US exports are one of the current bright spots of the US economy, I am not sure that "the economic engine of the nation would begin to heat up..." as a result. I feel the pain every time I fill up and understand how people less fortunate than me have to be suffering greatly but the logic of the comment doesn't hold up at this time.
The FED medicine for this credit crunch has weak dollar, higher inflation side effects that will take a long time to shake off. As we learned in the 70s, inflation is a very heavy and cruel tax on the lower and middle classes. The Treasury and the FED should know better.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65370-taiwan-etf-is-china-power-play?source=feed#comment-119014 119014 That said, the market is not discounting a positive turn from the election (in the past, presidential elections were good for 30% to 40% run-ups in the 12-15 months leading into the vote). Therefore any positive developments should lead to a bit of a rerating.
Taiwan is the Asian market most exposed to a US slowdown so a long or deep recession could detract from an otherwise attractive story of economic integration with China.
I have a position in EWT, so net net, I am bullish.]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2008 22:02:03 -0500 That said, the market is not discounting a positive turn from the election (in the past, presidential elections were good for 30% to 40% run-ups in the 12-15 months leading into the vote). Therefore any positive developments should lead to a bit of a rerating.
Taiwan is the Asian market most exposed to a US slowdown so a long or deep recession could detract from an otherwise attractive story of economic integration with China.
I have a position in EWT, so net net, I am bullish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/64387-we-need-a-home-price-decline-moratorium-plan?source=feed#comment-116194 116194 Wed, 13 Feb 2008 21:29:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58724-exports-to-the-rescue?source=feed#comment-107919 107919 On the larger issue, I think we will see a recession in the first two quarters (consumption is still above the long term trend rate...that return to the mean will make it more than a "wash" to the negative) The recovery will be sparked by a combination of export led growth and investment (both public and private) but can only be sustained by a recovery in consumption. There is a limit to export growth as the weak dollar and improved export performance of the US is not a recent event (more like the last 4 years).
The real issue driving the risk of recession is the impact of the credit crunch on consumers which the FED can't solve by itself (although it could certainly make things worse by not easing).]]> Wed, 02 Jan 2008 20:44:19 -0500 On the larger issue, I think we will see a recession in the first two quarters (consumption is still above the long term trend rate...that return to the mean will make it more than a "wash" to the negative) The recovery will be sparked by a combination of export led growth and investment (both public and private) but can only be sustained by a recovery in consumption. There is a limit to export growth as the weak dollar and improved export performance of the US is not a recent event (more like the last 4 years).
The real issue driving the risk of recession is the impact of the credit crunch on consumers which the FED can't solve by itself (although it could certainly make things worse by not easing).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/19955-smart-investors-looking-at-taiwanese-stocks?source=feed#comment-92004 92004 No arguments with your post but I think you should mention that alot of the excitement in the market will build up into the Legislative Yuan (Congressional) and Presidential Elections in Jan and Mar, respectively. Investors should monitor the index level at that time and not feel shy about taking profits if the situation looks a bit frothy (which is very likely). There may be some buy the rumor, sell the news action in the local stock market. If one does get a correction after the elections, then your arguments are still valid and you might get a second chance to play Taiwan in mid 2008.
John]]> Tue, 24 Jul 2007 10:44:59 -0400 No arguments with your post but I think you should mention that alot of the excitement in the market will build up into the Legislative Yuan (Congressional) and Presidential Elections in Jan and Mar, respectively. Investors should monitor the index level at that time and not feel shy about taking profits if the situation looks a bit frothy (which is very likely). There may be some buy the rumor, sell the news action in the local stock market. If one does get a correction after the elections, then your arguments are still valid and you might get a second chance to play Taiwan in mid 2008.
John]]>