Johnc

Five Presidents and Three Federal Reserve Chairmen Later...

Completely ignoring the previous two comments, which were obviously copied and pasted from a political rant that started somewhere else, I appreciated the article because I think one needs to think in historical terms to get a grip on current financial events. We are experiencing the "fat tail" or a "Black Swan" and the normal trending market rules are not going to help us out now. This is one for the history books and only a properly long perspective will aid in the analysis.

Aberration in Clear Thinking by JP Morgan

I like the article and I think the issues raised will take us back to March lows (demonstrating that the last two months was a bear market rally). However, I think we should be looking to pick up long positions if the SPX can hold above March lows. While there is bad news a plenty, very little of it is new. It just takes a while for it to sink in. However, now that it is starting to sink in (and we'll see that process over the next few weeks), it will be time to swim against the crowd.

I am talking my own book, of course, and hope that someone will be kind enough to lift my GLD at 100 (missed it last time around).

How Do You Cure a Credit Bubble?

You are right but the devil is in the details. As an American who lives in Asia, I understand but am constantly amazed by the household balance sheet carried by most of my upper middle class friends in the US. How do we get the deleveraging without collapsing the whole system? The Austrian School is right (and crowing about it) but it will take years to reeducate the average American consumer to see the benefits of saving and productive investment. And with the likely tax regime under the next administration, I fear we will move further away from a simple and flattish tax policy that would point the way towards the deleveraging you correctly identify as the cure for our (US and global) ailments. Reverse Nixon price controls...very nicely put. History rhyming but not exactly repeating.