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Carolina1954

Carolina1954
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  • Tesla Rated Ripe: Too Scared To Touch It [View article]
    I agree there's no way Musk quits.

    Who would quit a part time job that pays $78M?
    Aug 21 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buda Oil Well Rates Of Return Better Than Eagle Ford [View article]
    Rich,

    Thanks for the link.
    Aug 13 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buda Oil Well Rates Of Return Better Than Eagle Ford [View article]
    HVI,

    Thanks for the update.

    These well results look very good although they haven't moved the USEG share price much yet. The financial statement impact should show up better in the Q3 report.

    A couple of questions: How many net drilling locations does USEG have in the Buda sweet spot? Are there any EUR estimates for USEG's Buda wells drilled to date?

    C. David Kirby
    Aug 13 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Ridge Oil And Gas: A Micro Cap Worth A Serious Look [View article]
    Buying up and aggregating small oil well working interests at less than their intrinsic value may indeed be a value-adding business model.

    However, investors should be aware that for Black Ridge to achieve multi-year rapid growth will require a lot of new capital, debt and equity, financed externally. In Q1 2014, Black Ridge's capex was $7.7M, compared to operating cash flow of $1.75M, the difference financed by debt. Given that Black Ridge's debt/EBITDA ratio is already past 3, continued growth could require fresh equity before long.

    Black Ridge's low stock price therefore is a two-edged sword. You can buy their stock at a cheap price, but Black Ridge will also have to sell it at a cheap price. So I see cost of capital and common equity dilution as big risks here.

    I'm taking a pass on this one, but I hope Mr. Fischer and other longs get their multi-bagger.

    C. David Kirby
    Aug 12 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources - The Scale Of The Balance Sheet Makeover May Surprise The Market (In A Good Way) [View article]
    "Does anyone know why sudden drop on the last earnings report?"

    LSTMF's basic problem is an unsustainable build-up of debt due to capital expenditures and dividends exceeding its operating cash flow for years. Its strategy for dealing with the debt is to sharply reduce drilling, cut the dividend, and sell assets.

    Management's plan has been to keep production about stable while reducing debt. The dilemma is that reducing drilling means less production, and selling assets also reduces production. Also, production has become gassier and thus less profitable.

    Management's production guidance has a way of being revised downward after exceeding actual production, with Swan Hills being the latest unpleasant surprise. Swan Hills was supposed to be their next oil-weighted growth area, but that now seems unlikely to happen.

    The risk here is that management no longer has the resources to fund enough drilling to arrest production declines. Declining production with a heavy debt load could eventually force elimination of the remaining dividend and could further erode the remaining equity value.

    In my opinion, there are many shale E&Ps that are better bets than LSTMF, such as BXE (Canadian) or OAS (US).

    I have no position (long or short) in Lightstream.

    C. David Kirby
    Aug 10 02:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Is 30% Correction Enough Of A Penalty For The Weak Quarter? [View article]
    bankstocks,

    Thanks, and I'll have a look at BXE. I hope they're also not Lightstream "by any stretch".
    Aug 8 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Is 30% Correction Enough Of A Penalty For The Weak Quarter? [View article]
    Mr. Zeits,

    Reading between the lines of your analysis, the clear implication seems to be that, barring a substantial and sustained rise in commodity prices, there is a significant risk that SD is economically insolvent and its equity value could eventually find its true level at zero.

    The day is drawing closer when capital markets and SD's bankers will pull the plug on outspending and SD will be forced to contain capital expenditure within cash flow. If, at that point, production does not at least remain stable, SD is headed for the penny stock sheets or worse.

    SD is an excellent example to demonstrate that a low EV/EBITDA ratio does not necessarily indicate that an E&P's stock is "cheap". A recycle ratio analysis or other measures of value added vs. capital expended is indispensable to a valid analysis of an E&P's economics on a full cycle basis. Despite SD's sub hat-size stock price and apparent cheapness on an EV/EBITDA and EV/flowing barrel basis, it may actually be far more expensive relative to its economic value and certainly riskier than EOG, CLR, OAS, WLL, etc.

    Investors tempted to think that getting rid of Ward and his fellow looters will finally unmask SD's true profit potential should think again. The vast personal fortune Ward took directly from the corporate treasury may pale in comparison to the value destruction of his betting the stockholders' ranch on the Miss lime. That decision, unlike Ward's employment contract, is irreversible and must now be played out to the end.

    C. David Kirby
    Aug 8 08:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Texas [View article]
    I probably should just have hit the "abuse" button, something I've never done before, although it would be well justified here.

    I figure you have better things to do than responding to barnyard insults.

    I'm now long GILD 2016 calls. Keep up the great work you've been doing on GILD and others.

    C. David Kirby
    Jul 26 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Texas [View article]
    Cologero,

    "Keep your commentary limited to the financial!"

    Obviously, you lack a sense of irony.

    Your comments are among the nastiest, most uncivil, most illiterate, and most stupid of any I have read on SA, and I would say that even if I agreed with your political slant, which I don't.

    In fact, I would make the above statement even more emphatically if I agreed with your slant, because I would be embarrassed to be associated with such a yahoo.

    Speaking of yahoo, or Yahoo!, why don't you go there. You'd fit right in.

    C. David Kirby
    Jul 26 11:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Even This Raging Bull Was Too Pessimistic [View article]
    Mr. Jensen,

    Hyperbole is ok if backed up by hyperbolic financial facts.

    Bill Ackman you're not.

    Please take that as a compliment.

    C. David Kirby
    (soon to be) long GILD
    Jul 25 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Bigger iPhones Could Steal Samsung's Market Share; Stock Heading Higher [View article]
    Your comparison of Samsung phones to Yugos is unfair to Yugo.

    Yugos weren't riddled with viruses.
    Jul 23 12:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Bigger iPhones Could Steal Samsung's Market Share; Stock Heading Higher [View article]
    Apple is like a boa constrictor, slowly but methodically wrapping itself around its prey's rib cage.

    Samsung's smart-phone segment can still breathe, but the final squeeze is coming.
    Jul 23 11:23 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron higher on CS Focus List addition, Samsung DRAM report [View news story]
    Maybe an even simpler explanation is that Micron has low-balled guidance because it isn't quite ready yet for the stock price to ascend, inflating the already embarrassingly large cost of buying in remaining converts.
    Jun 30 03:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Junior Emerald Oil Is Worth A Strong Look [View article]
    Mr. White,

    Thanks for the clarification.

    I agree that EOXs field level results have been good, and if they contain expenses and stop issuing shares, it may be a decent investment.

    I just think there are better Bakken bets (I'm long on OAS).

    Good luck with your EOX position if you have one.

    C. David Kirby
    Jun 29 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Junior Emerald Oil Is Worth A Strong Look [View article]
    Mr. White,

    "I meant the least the companies spend is about $10 million per quarter on selling and G&A."

    This is not an accurate statement.

    According to Yahoo finance, the two smallest (CPE, FANG) of the six E&Ps you cite each spent about $6 million per quarter on A&G in 2013, compared to $9 million per quarter for EOX. CPE had 2x the revenue of EOX, FANG 4x.

    The largest E&P in your sample, CWEI, had 8x the revenues of EOX, yet spent LESS on A&G in absolute dollars (CWEI $35 million, EOX $36 million).

    The six E&Ps you cite spent a weighted average of 18% of revenues on A&G in 2013, compared to 67% for EOX.

    C. David Kirby
    Jun 29 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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