blackjack

Valero's Margins: A Template

..the learned foregoing spread-margin-risk-sec... vs index rationale comments are well taken. For me, 3 elements are prominently germaine, PE, price of raw product (expect oil price to stay level/reduce), price of essential boiler gas (expect to stay level/reduce) resulting in lower steam cost...ie; latter two: overall mfg. cost efficiency. Also note: share buying imbalance in TSO, driving season mkt. influence a mere 2 months away, improvement in Calif. economics peeking thru and reduced thru-puts/closings on E. Coast, mid west, Aruba, etc. TSO: slam dunk at current price and VLO interesting, I think.

An Abundance of Gasoline: A Thanksgiving Day Tradition

...complex subject matter...but one must note all the refg. cut-backs: yesterday TSO said to 77% of capacity, VLO shutting 3, others to follow certainly. Sooner or later burn off creates scarcity...then price escalation...with modern bookkeeping and directives to the manufacturing process, profitability too can change quickly...and w/mkt predicting 6 mos out, independents bump first. Now is the time for VLO and TSO moves.

Oil Refiners as Proxy for Demand

shutting-in temp. and shutting down perm. eventually will have a beneficial bearing, even tho remote and e. coast oriented...cutting costs will upbraid fin. structure and sooner than later, will show up..now is the time to accumulate TSO and VLO ahead of a better spring '10.

Bleak Outlook for Independent U.S. Oil Refiners

...right on!..


On Jun 26 08:46 AM A Barrel Full wrote:

> My question would be is this not all priced in?
>
> Everyone knows that refining is a tough business at the moment. However
> there are a number of issues that will impact the relative performance
> of the players.
>
> Scale, complexity and closeness to customers are key in this business.
> If inefficient players are forced out of business, a great likelihood
> with the current market conditions, tightening specs and future carbon
> costs, then the remainder will enjoy better conditions a few years
> down the line.

Bleak Outlook for Independent U.S. Oil Refiners

Likely demise of poorly located/inefficient refiners, existing viable ones cutting back resulting in shortages and eco-uptick in 2010 mean stardom for those buying cash-in-bank, already retrofitted rfnrs today selling at $4-5PEs...A Tidal certainty: the lowest ebb marks the start of flush flow.....get in now!...vlo and tso best buys..

Valero vs. Tesoro: Comparing Two Refiners

...best detailed and, to me, very accurate critique. I am long and have been and believe we will see 25-28 during the summer...mainly on Calif. balling..