Mr. Ed, Jr.

More Surprisingly Good News for Retail Sales

"This came as something of a surprise to analysts because retailers across the country had been reporting lackluster sales during the holiday shopping season so far."

Well, it must have been a surprise to the retailers, too.

Of course, what would the retailers know about their own sales ? We must all learn to trust the government, not the people who actually own and operate the cash register.

Gold: The Glenn Beck Indicator

"Peter Epstein, president of Merit Financial Services, which advertises on Beck’s show, says gold retailers expect favorable coverage from commentators on whose shows they pay to advertise. “You pay anybody on any network and they say what you pay them to say,” said Epstein. “They’re bought and sold.” "

This is your case ? A quote from the clown at Merit ? And what he says (while the author is using Media Matters as a source) is the gospel ?


"the likes of Glenn Beck"..."the likes of Ron Paul"

If you have something to say about Glenn Beck or Ron Paul, please just say it. Dragging a sludge website like Media Matters into this argument, even in a roundabout way, does not help your case. If you have one.


"Ken Vogel's very good article"

Vogel is quoting the sewer, a.k.a. Media Matters. Additional references include Olberrmann. How surprised am I that Vogel believes either one is a credible source ?

You and Vogel have this completely backwards. The gold sellers advertise on Fox because FOX is more conservative , but there is no evidence that FOX programs to sell gold. Gold sellers go to FOX for the demographics. There is a childish mindset on the left that FOX is desperate for viewers, thus they hook up with charlatans selling gold-- because they need the money. Check the ratings and you will see that FOX outdraws CNN, MSNBC and CNBC combined. This is 5th grade thinking on Vogel's part. And you think it is a great article ?

This is the kind of childish partisanship that has been undermining this country for a long time. Neither Republicans or Democrats, liberals or conservatives, can or will act like adults. There is always somebody with a half-truth to tell. Add Ken Vogel and "the likes of Felix Salmon" to that list.

Why Did Housing Go into a Bubble?

No single event caused the housing boom. It is a story that has been witnessed many times in history (The Great Depression was caused by the real estate boom/bust of the "Roaring Twenties", not the 1929 market crash, which was a result of the bust). Only the object and the size of the frenzy changes.

In California, there was at first a slow-developing news story about home prices being up slightly (No big deal, since Californians are used to that), but it began to become a regular news item as prices started to increase 1% or so a month, and people began to really take notice. The San Diego market was on fire, and was becoming a big topic of conversation in the state, and soon became national news. Las Vegas had long been the subject of news stories of how fast it was growing, so it was ripe for speculators.

More and more, everybody wanted to get in "now" and not be left behind. There were many stories of people flipping homes and condos without ever taking possession-- and often before they were even built. Almost everybody knew somebody who was making easy money flipping.

The news crews would show lines of people camping out for days to be the first to buy in a new development. More stories of price increases-- daily, not monthly-- and it soon became a frenzy. Prices rose, lines got longer, local news was reporting on it every day-- bigtime.

Everybody wanted to get in right away, make a small fortune on the equity increase, and live like a rock start for the rest of their life.

It could not have occurred without the ridiculously easy credit, though. (A 20% mandatory downpayment would have slammed the brakes on this lunacy.) Fast money and easy credit, fueled by news stories of home prices appreciating overnight-- literally-- and we were off and running.

The truth is....nobody cared if they could afford to buy the house. The frenzy and the rapidly rising prices had everbody convinced that the home would be worth so much more in just a year or two that the mortgage payments would not be a problem. There was just "no way" home prices could not just keep going higher. Nobody wanted to be left behind-- they had to buy "now".

The difference between this bubble and the last 100 is the magnitude. By far, it is the biggest bubble burst in history, and it will take many years to straighten out the damage.

Goldman: Gold to Rise Above $1,400 an Ounce by 2011

"Traditionally, gold has been a store of value when citizens do not trust their government politically or economically."

Well....that's a "Bingo!"

On the other hand....Goldman predicting $1400 is real cause for concern that the bottom is about to drop out of the gold market-- courtesy of the very same Goldman Sachs.

Not that I am suspicious of GS, or anything like that. Not at all. Of course not.

Gold Gets Hammered on Jobs Data

"The gold trade in particular is, at root, an Armageddon trade. Central banks have made clear that full employment, not price stability, is top of mind."

In years past, perhaps gold has been a bit "eccentric", but it is not an Armegeddon trade today. It is insurance and a "bet" that the world's financial crisis is far from over, as events in Dubai have reminded us.

Central banks may give lip service to the notion of "full employment", but their actions say something very different. Jobs creation is extremely difficult when the bankers are causing so much turbulence, as businesses are unable to plan with any degree of confidence, and credit is not readily available. Politicians also mouth off about "jobs", but have no idea what to do.

The world's financial mess is very much alive, and although there is much hoopla today over a little .2 improvement in the jobs report, celebrations seem premature. But if this is truly the start of the V recovery, we have also heard the starting gun for the inflation race. Either way, gold looks pretty good.

Energy Impoverishment: Heading Back to Coal?

Coal is cheap and abundant, and our nation is buried in debt, unable to commit the massive amounts of money needed for the transition, despite the talk of alternative energy. There is no ready replacement-- not solar, wind or any other technology-- that can come close to replacing the energy that coal provides.

In order to make coal "go away", legislation is required. This will prove a much tougher hurdle than many suspect. Although the current administration would love to tax coal into oblivion, the elected representatives from Pennsylvania and West Va (Blue states), just to name two, are not about to go along with those plans. Coal has many politically powerful "friends" who will quietly kill legislation designed to hurt the industry. Hurting coal hurts many businesses in this country-- not just coal miners.

The economics of coal extend beyond our borders. The USA has seen much of its manufacturing base move to other countries, where cheap labor and cheap energy are available. Any taxes or penalties applied to coal at this time would be very damaging to our economy, and the costs for energy would soar, financially harming Americans-- not helping them. The great economic benefits would go to the very same countries that have taken so many of our manufacturing jobs, for they will not be imposing new penalties on the use of coal.

It is politically popular to bash coal these days, but politically and economically untenable to do much more than talk.

Is a Gold Correction Imminent?

" Dashing the hopes of gold bugs, Hu Xiaolian, the vice-governor at the People’s Bank of China, called gold a bubble and threw cold water on the idea that the Chinese central bank would increase their gold reserves."

And, of course, we should believe whatever Chinese officials say.

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

Now that everybody is so much more "bubble-aware", we are having far too many bubble sightings.

Since February, gold is up 20 %, approximately. That does not seem to be so bubbly, especially in a highly volatile financial crisis.

If the gold-dollar inverse relationship still exists ( I am suspicious that perhaps gold may not fall if the dollar strengthens in the near future), is gold up significantly more than what might be expected, given the damage to the dollar ?

Gold Bubble Represents Market Irrationality

How is it irrational to buy gold while your government is debasing its currency ?

We are nowhere near a bubble. Yes, the price of gold may come down if our government comes to its senses, but what are the odds of that ?

Gas Tax: Will Thomas Friedman Silver Bullet Work?

Filling up once a week would cost a family another $1,000 per year, and double that if any family is lucky enough to have 2 parents working. What a wonderful idea for a recession/depression. Great thinking.

Taxing the hell out of supposedly free people is not the solution to every problem. It is always "Let's have another tax-- that will solve the problem." New taxes to pay for the war, for healthcare, for every silly scheme some fool can dream up. Enough.

And anyone foolish enough to trust government to use this money for the intended purpose is too foolish to be driving on our highways. If those people would get off the roads, that would solve the energy problem, as well as the highway congestion problem.

Those who keep suggesting more taxes are already bankrupt in the ideas department, and their solutions will bankrupt the rest of us.

The Gold Market Fights Back

Gold comes to the forefront during times of crisis-- real or perceived.

You can compare it to other investments all day and all night, but any such comparisons are invalid. Gold is not a typical investment.

As long as we have this incredibly wobbly, shaky and uncertain worldwide financial crisis, compounded by massive experiments in money printing by the U.S. and other western countries, gold is likely to garner a lot of attention. It is "insurance-hedge-security blanket-momentum play" all combined in one.

When this financial situation is deemed by general consensus to be under control, gold will once again fade into the background-- until the next crisis. But there are no indications that this current situation is going to be resolved in the near future.

Holiday Retail Outlook: 'Very Good Signs'

The consumer still has no job, no credit (What little credit they do have is now at 29 % APR), little savings and a lack of desire to spend, so lower your expectations.

Black Friday is all about big sale promotions-- the ones that get people to stand in lines for hours so that the store gets a "photo op" with the local or national news media. The media gets all excited, and away we go....

But there are no real numbers yet-- everything that is being reported is estimated or just made up. Go back and re-read the above article-- there are no facts. Just blather from CEO's and "estimates" from Coremetrics.

And, lest we forget, there are fewer surviving retailers this year, so the stores that remain should certainly have a bump from last year. If a store can't top last year's numbers, they are going to be sleeping with the fishes-- aka Circuit City-- very soon.

Believe these "Black Friday" press releases at your own peril.

Q3 GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.8%

Yet another in an endless series of bogus government numbers that get "revised" later, when few are paying attention. (Or in the case of the sorry, pathetic media, are just not real interested in reporting it.)

The only surprise is that it was not released on a weekend....or Thanksgiving day.

If a nation's government ever needed a thorough housecleaning-- this is it

NPR's Planet Money spends a day with Barney Frank's Financial Services Committee. "We talked to 13 congresspeople, 12 of whom admitted that they don't understand this at all. And the guy who thought he did really didn't."

Well........They understood enough that, after Paulson had finished briefing them on the impending financial crisis, they rushed out and sold their stocks-- possibly to those hard-working Americans they say they are so concerned about.

Obama's Fears of a Double Dip Recession Are Nonsense

"Barack Obama has now come clean about his thinking on why his administration has decided to focus first on reducing the deficit and next on jobs. He fears a double-dip recession will occur if foreigners lose confidence in the U.S. dollar, causing interest rates to spike."

Whatever would cause someone to believe that this is what he is really thinking and concerned about ? Because he mouthed the words ?

Bet that what he says has absolutely nothing to do with anything. That is why it makes no sense. We have a President who truly believes he casts a spell on us when he speaks (For some, that is true). The words are only meant to soothe and comfort, while he pretends to be pragmatic and moderate. His actions are something altogether different.